Data & Implications for the Southern Region Good afternoon and welcome to the Knocking at the College Door Regional Webinar Series. The title of today’s webinar is, “Knocking at the College Door: Data & Implications for the Southern Region.” My name is Demi Michelau, and I’m the Vice President for Policy Analysis and Research at the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, or WICHE. I’m also a co-author of Knocking at the College Door. I will be your moderator today, and I am pleased to be joined by a panel respondents from the Southern region who will provide insights on the implications of these trends for their state, higher education enrollment and access, workforce trends and state and institutional decision-making. WICHE is hosting this webinar today in collaboration with the Southern Regional Education Board, known to many of you as SREB. I want to express my sincere appreciation to my colleagues at SREB for their willingness to work together on this webinar and for their thoughtful contributions. Before we get started, WICHE would like to thank ACT and the College Board for their generous financial support of Knocking at the College Door. Without their partnership and collaboration with us and with each other, these projections would not be possible. One final note, I’d like to bring you attention to the knocking hashtag - #knocking2016 – please feel free to tweet during the webinar if you are so inclined. AT THE COLLEGE DOOR Thursday, February 23, 2017 www.wiche.edu/knocking #Knocking2016

Logistics Your Participation Open and close your control panel using the arrow in the orange box. Choose Mic & Speakers or Telephone (Note: All attendees will be muted.) Submit questions and feedback in the Questions panel. Your Participation [SLIDE 2] First I’d like to run through a bit of housekeeping information. All attendees will be muted; however you should be able to hear at this point. You can click on the small orange box on the right side of your screen to access the “Audio” tab on the control panel to connect via your computer speakers or to access dial-in information. We’ll be taking all questions today via the “Question” box, which you’ll also find in the control panel on the right side of your screen. We will monitor and respond to incoming questions and respond as appropriate, so please submit your questions as they come up. We have also set aside time for Q&A toward the end of the webinar. The presentation slides, copies of the Knocking report, and a packet that includes the Southern regional profile and individual state profiles are included for you to download from the Handouts portion of the control panel. After the webinar concludes we will be posting a recording of the presentation on our website, and we’ll let you know via email when it’s available. Finally, you’ll be directed to a brief evaluation of the webinar when you leave the event. We rely on your feedback to improve our webinars and to develop useful resources, so we appreciate you taking the time to complete the short evaluation.

Agenda High School Graduate Trends Demarée Michelau Implications Vice President for Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE Implications Susan Lounsbury Director of Education Data Services Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) Kate Akers Executive Director Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics Jean Massey Associate Superintendent for Secondary Education and Career and Technical Education Mississippi Department of Education David Wright Senior Advisor for Policy and Strategy Tennessee Higher Education Commission  Q & A [SLIDE 3] The following shows our agenda. I will begin with a presentation of the high school graduate trends. Then we will hear from our panelists with their impressions of these projections and what they mean for the work they do. I would like to just take a moment to introduce our panel: Susan Lounsbury Director of Education Data Services Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) Kate Akers Executive Director Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics Jean Massey Associate Superintendent for Secondary Education and Career and Technical Education Mississippi Department of Education David Wright Senior Advisor for Policy and Strategy Tennessee Higher Education Commission Finally, we will conclude with questions from our participants.

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates Public and Private High School Graduates Nation Four Geographical Regions 50 States and DC First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico Public by Race/Ethnicity WICHE has been producing projections of high school graduates for about 40 years. We make projections for the nation, four geographical regions, and the 50 states and District of Columbia. For the first time, in this edition, we also were able to make projections for Puerto Rico and Guam. Before we discuss the trends, I’d like to mention a few important details about the data. We rely on the most recently available data from two federal data sources: Common Core of Data and the Private School Universe Survey. For this edition, the 2013-14 school year was the most recent data for the most part, with some variation across public and private school data. So, based on the data we use, the projections begin with school year 2013-14 by and large, and the projections extend out to school year 2031-32. From these data, we compute ratios, or patterns of progression from grade-to-grade onto graduation. We use the five most recent years’ patterns to project the number of students and eventually graduates, in the future years. We are able to disaggregate the numbers by race/ethnicity for public school students, which are about 90% of the total. We continue to produce detailed numbers in the five longstanding racial/ethnic categories for public school students—Hispanics, which include all students of any Hispanic origin regardless of race. And, four non-Hispanic race categories – White, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native. We provide some information about the proportions of Two or more races and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander students in the report, even though we could not produce projections for these populations separately because of insufficient data. You can find detail about the data and methodology in the Appendix C of the publication.

U.S. High School Graduates So, let’s begin with the national trends for high school graduates. The big national headlines are that despite the recent improvements in the official high school graduation rate, the sheer number of youth is going to plateau. This leads to a slowdown and even declines in the number of high school graduates. And, underlying the limited growth and eventual decreased number of high school graduates are long-predicted decreases in the number of White youth – including those who attend and graduate from private schools -- and growing non-White student populations. The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

U.S. High School Graduates Projections Compared to SY2012-13 (Thousands) 3.44M 3.56M ('25) 3.30M 640 Hispanic 184 Asian/Pac. Isl. 32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 474 Black 298 Private Schools 1,839 White White Hispanic These two charts illustrate the projected national trends. The chart on the left shows the populations of public school graduates by race/ethnicity, plus graduates of private schools, from the first projected year to the last. The top line shows the total and several counts over these 18 years. The line chart on the right indicates the year-over-year increase or decrease in the number of each population of graduates over those years, compared to their numbers from the last confirmed school year, 2012-13. In total - after almost two decades of steady growth in the number of high school graduates averaging about 2% annually, the nation reached a high of about 3.44 million graduates around 2013. Between now and about 2025, there is virtually no increase projected, except for a few years of small increases around 2025, when the nation will produce about 3.56 million high school graduates. After 2025, the number of high school graduates nationally is projected to decrease steadily, to about 3.3 million (about 7 percent fewer by around 2030). These decreases in the outer years arise from long-predicted contraction of the White youth population, compounded by dramatic birth declines for all populations during and after the great recession. A couple points to note: White public school graduates are projected to decrease by 17 percent by the early 2030s, or about a quarter million fewer graduates than in 2013. Just over 15 years ago (2000), Whites represented 70 percent of all high school graduates, but by the end of the projections, they are projected to be 52 percent of public school graduates. Hispanic high school graduates are the primary growth population, increasing almost 50 percent by 2025, from 640,000 in 2013 to almost 900,000. During the growth years, the additional number of Hispanic graduates more than offsets the declines of White graduates. But then even, Hispanic graduates are projected to decrease in number between 2025 and the early 2030s, as a result of the recent birth declines, which were greatest among Hispanics. Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are the only population projected to increase throughout, but they are only about 5 to 7% of the total number of graduates nationally, so their numbers don’t shift the overall trend of decline. Black high school graduates are about 15 percent of the national total, and they will be relatively steady in number throughout the projections. The numbers for American Indian/Alaska Native students nationally are very small compared to other student populations, but overall there is a decline. High school graduates from private religious and independent schools are projected to decrease by about 26 percent, or about 80,000 graduates, in reflection of their largely White student demographic, but also due to significant contraction among religious schools over the last decade or so. We couldn’t produce separate counts for Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates or two or more races graduates, because of data limitations. But recent years indicated Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates are about 7 percent of the combined Asian total, or about 10,000 high school graduates in recent years. Graduates of multiple races have represented between 1 to 3 percent of non-Hispanic public high school graduates in recent years. Black Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

Significant Regional Variation You will, however, that the national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

Regional Divisions Before we get started, I want to show the regional divisions as defined in Knocking at the College Door. The following slides will focus on the states in gold.

Significant Regional Variation Total Public and Private High School Graduates Here we see those regional differences. The number of graduates for each region you see here is the region’s high point. The Southern region produces about 43 percent of the nation’s high school graduates. While the West has long produced the most diverse classes of high school graduates and the greatest number of Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates, by the early 2020s the Southern region will surpass the West in the number of Hispanic high school graduates, and will rival the West in terms of diversity. The Northeast and Midwest reached their high points for high school graduates in school year 2009-10. As you can see, the number of graduates from these regions have already begun decreasing and will continue to decline throughout the projected years.

The South 10% more graduates by 2025 And now let’s shift and take a closer look at the trends for the Southern region. 10% more graduates by 2025 45% or more of the Nation’s graduates Overtakes the West region to become the #1 producer of Hispanic graduates by 2025

High School Graduates in the Southern Region Projections Compared to SY2012-13 (Thousands) 1.35M ('25) 1.27M 1.24M 229 Hispanic 39 Asian/Pac. Isl. 12 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 268 Black 96 Private Schools 590 White White White Hispanic Hispanic The South is the engine of growth for high school graduates. The region will generate about 10 percent more graduates in 2025 than in 2013, and is primarily responsible for the growth predicted for the nation around 2025. The South is the only region that will produce more high school graduates in the early 2030s than it does now. And, about 45 percent of the nation’s graduates will be from the South region by 2030. While White high school graduates are projected to decline by 7% percent by the early 2030s (or about 40,000 fewer than 2013), the decline in the South is about half the magnitude as other regions. Hispanics are projected to increase by 43 percent compared to 2013, from 229,000 to 328,000. The number of Black high school graduates is relatively stable throughout the years projected, about 266,000 per year with all the growth in the South coming from other minority graduates. Asian/Pacific Islander graduates almost double, increasing from 39,000 to 71,000. There were rapid increases of American Indian/Alaska Native high school graduates between 2000 and 2010, from 8,000 to 12,000; but going forward, they are projected to decrease in number almost as rapidly, back to about 8,000 by the early 2030s. Finally, the South saw rapid growth of private high school graduates between 2000 and 2010, but they are projected to decline by about 23 percent, from 96,000 in 2013 to about 73,000 in the early 2030s. Black Asian/Pacific Islander Black Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools Private schools 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

No Growth or Modest Increase High School Graduates by State, Cumulative Percent Change, 2012-13 to 2024-25 Decline No Growth or Modest Increase Moderate Increase Robust Increase West Virginia (-5%) Alabama (1%) Tennessee (5%) Florida (12%) Kentucky (-2%) Mississippi (1%) Arkansas (8%) Delaware (13%)   North Carolina (9%) South Carolina (13%) Virginia (9%) Georgia (17%) Maryland (9%) Oklahoma (17%) Louisiana (9%) Texas (21%) District of Columbia (31%) This table is designed to give a snapshot of where the declines and growth are in the region by showing the cumulative percent change of each of the states within the region from 2012-13 to 2024-25. What is notable here is that the two states that contribute the highest numbers of high school graduates – Texas and Florida - are both listed under robust increase. The next highest contributors – North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia – fall into moderate or robust increase.

High School Graduates by State Southern Region 1.27 million / year on average 10% by 2024-25 then 3% by 2031-32 Non-White 7% to 55% of Public Total 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32 Texas 346,300 on average Non-White  6% to 70% of Total Florida 178,700 on average Non-White  9% to 60% of Total North Carolina 103,600 on average Non-White  5% to 47% of Total Finally, let’s take a quick at each of the states in the South. Hopefully some of the similarities and differences jump out at you seeing states side-by-side. The Southern region as a whole is shown again… One point of note - If a state is not projected to exceed the number of graduates in 2013 – or it does not have a new high -- you will only see the starting and ending number of graduates. The states are in order by the size of the contribution to the number of high school graduates (a way of thinking about state size). Again, you can see that most of the growth in the region comes from several states. Region includes 3 of the states that are in the Top 10 Texas is the 2nd highest producer for the Nation and generates 27% of the South’s graduates. The additional graduates in Texas account for almost half of the additional graduates from the South in the new high point around 2025. And while the nation is expected to produce about 200,000 fewer graduates in the early 2030s than in recent years, at the same time, Texas will be generating about 45,000 more. Florida generates about 14% of South’s graduates and percentage of non-white graduates will increase about 9 percent to about 60 percent of the total. North Carolina is the 10th highest producer for nation and 8% of South. By 2032, the non-white population will be about 47 percent of the total.

High School Graduates by State Georgia 103,500 on average Non-White  8% to 26% of Total Virginia 90,400 on average Non-White  8% to 48% of Total Tennessee 66,200 on average Non-White  6% to 36% of Total Maryland 65,300 on average Non-White  9% to 63% of Total Alabama 47,300 on average, 9% by ‘32 Non-White  3% to 42% of Total South Carolina 46,100 on average Non-White  2% to 41% of Total [one thing worth knowing is that the South has a number of states where the sum of races is more than the independent total. This matters when you are citing ‘new highs’ or not.] Georgia, which generates 8% of South’s graduates, and Virginia 7%, both are expected to see about an 8 percent increase in their non-white population. Tennessee and Maryland also see increases in their non-white population (6% and 9%, respectively). And while Alabama overall is expected to decline in the number of high school graduates, the state will see a slight uptick in the non-white population. Finally, South Carolina loses a couple percentage points in their non-White share because of almost equal decreases of Black graduates as increases of Whites (about 2,000 each).—real, or result of race category change?

High School Graduates by State Kentucky 45,100 on average;  8% by ‘32 Non-White  10% to 25% of Total Louisiana 44,400 on average Non-White  7% to 54% of Total Oklahoma 42,300 on average Non-White  6% to 46% of Total Arkansas 30,800 on average Non-White  6% to 38% of Total Mississippi 27,800 on average; 17% by ‘32 Non-White % virtually unchanged West Virginia 17,400 on average, 11% by ‘32 Non-White  2% to 9% of Total Kentucky overall will see a decrease in graduates but more diversity, and Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas all see about a 6-7 percent increase in the share of their non-white population. Finally, the declines in Mississippi and West Virginia are reflected here.

High School Graduates by State Delaware 9,800 on average, 4% by ‘32 Non- White  7% to 53% of Total District of Columbia 5,800 on average Non-White  10% to 86% of Total The decline in Delaware after a fairly substantial increase should be noted. And while D.C. shows a very steep increase, the numbers are quite small. And interestingly, there are increasing recent White enrollments that leads to some trends that are the opposite of what we’re seeing elsewhere. [High private school production]

www.knocking.wiche.edu Report State Profiles Download Data I’d like to conclude my remarks by saying that in addition to the handouts that you can download in this presentation, you can obtain the projections in a variety of formats by going to our website at www.knocking.wiche.edu. [CLICK TO OPEN WEBPAGE] You can get PDF copies of the report, which includes the state-by-state data tables in Appendix A. You can download the projections as an Excel file on the Data page. And, you can view State, Regional and National Profiles about the projections.

Implications Susan Lounsbury Kate Akers Jean Massey David Wright Director of Education Data Services Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) Kate Akers Executive Director Kentucky Center for Education and Workforce Statistics Jean Massey Associate Superintendent for Secondary Education and Career and Technical Education Mississippi Department of Education David Wright Senior Advisor for Policy and Strategy Tennessee Higher Education Commission I’d like to now turn to our respondents. I’m going to first turn to Susan. Can you please provide a short introduction to SREB, describe your initial impressions of the Knocking trends, and perhaps talk about you use the data in your work. Next, I’m going to ask each respondent to take three minutes or so to describe the organization/institution including his or her role as well as their initial impressions of Knocking’s findings. David, I’ll turn to you first. Jean, would you please offer your thoughts? And, Kate, we’ll hear from you next. Jean, I’d like to focus on K-12 for a moment. We have just heard about the shifting demographics that are already being seen in the K-12 schools. Overall, there is increasing diversity – largely fueled by fewer White students and increasing numbers of Hispanic and Asian students, although fewer in numbers. We know that historically there have been achievement gaps between White students and students of color. Can you discuss what these projections mean for a schools in Mississippi and give us some examples of what schools in your state have been doing to improve academic performance and college readiness for all students? David - The Knocking projections show that moderate growth of about 5% through about 2024-25 and then a dip back down to lower than current numbers. From where you sit at a state agency, what does that tell you about what the state needs to do going forward and what has Tennessee done already that you can build on? Kate – You have a different perspective from your office. Can you comment on how you have seen these data used and what they might mean for Kentucky? Jean - Many promising efforts around the country that have demonstrated improved academic performance involve partnerships and collaboration between K-12 and higher education. Would you like to comment on partnership efforts that you know of or are involved in that have demonstrated success with students? IF WE HAVE TIME: From each of your perspectives, what should state or institutional policymakers (either in K-12 or higher education) consider in light of these projections?

Q & A Submit questions and feedback in the Questions panel. We will now open it up for your questions. Please submit your question in the questions box on the lower right part of your screen.

Please complete the short evaluation when you exit the webinar! Thank You! Please complete the short evaluation when you exit the webinar! Contacts Demarée Michelau 303.541.0223 dmichelau@wiche.edu Peace Bransberger 303-541-0257 pbransberger@wiche.edu We are out of time, but I’d like to extend a warm thank you to our panelists for taking the time to be with us today, and to all of you for attending and contributing such thoughtful questions. If you submitted a question that we didn’t get to, we will email you to follow up. I will leave the webinar open for about five minutes to receive any more questions through the question box. There will be a very brief evaluation survey as you exit the webinar, which we hope you will take the time to complete. You will receive an email notification when the recording is available, please share it with colleagues who were not able to attend today. Please feel free to email us at either of these emails on your screen. You can sign up for email notifications about the Knocking at the College Door projections and any additional reports we may produce, or sign up for webinars about the other regions’ trends, at www.knocking.wiche.edu. Have a great afternoon!