North Korean Nuclear Proliferation Challenges ICKS, Korea University North Korean Nuclear Proliferation Challenges July 19, 2005. By Han Sung-Joo

ICKS, Korea University

North Korea agree to return to 6-Party Talks ICKS, Korea University What’s New? 1 North Korea agree to return to 6-Party Talks 2 Seoul announce proposal to provide North Korea electric power 3 Kim Jong-Il reiterates willingness to “denuclearize” Korean Peninsula

What is the problem? Geneva Agreed Framework (October 1994) ICKS, Korea University What is the problem? Geneva Agreed Framework (October 1994) The “covert enrichment” problem (October 2002) “Six Party Talks (3 rounds, August 2003 – June 2004) Declaration of possession (February 2005) 8,000 fuel rods withdrawn Enrichment program unaccounted for “Six Party Talks (3 rounds, August 2003 – June 2004)

Will North Korea give up nuclear weapons? ICKS, Korea University Why? Justify economic cooperation (fertilizer, good, etc.) Support “embrace” policy Shore up China’s “face” Discourage pressure policy Buy time See what can be gained? Ultimate Question Will North Korea give up nuclear weapons?

At issue Question 1. Name Calling Outpost of Axis of Tyrant ICKS, Korea University At issue 1. Name Calling Axis of Evil Outpost of Tyranny Question Tyrant Irresponsible Bush Bush Rice, Dobriansky Cheney Does North Korea Really Fear U.S. “hostile policy” or an excuse? 2. Regime Change 3 Bilateral Negotiation

Reasons to be optimistic Reasons to be pessimistic ICKS, Korea University Will North Korea give up its nuclear weapons and the program? Cf. 1994 Reasons to be optimistic Reasons to be pessimistic Economic need Chinese involvement U.S. pays more attention Rice, Hill : close connection with the White House Hill also has good rapport with South Korea. Mutual understanding between the R.O.K and U.S. South Korea offers “Significant Plan” NK is over the threshold Deadlock in 2005 NPT review conference 3 North Korea want, “disarmament talks” North Korean brinkmanship works Japan-Korea, Japan-China relations Libya, Iraq, Iran

Advantages and disadvantages of 6-party talks ICKS, Korea University Advantages and disadvantages of 6-party talks Advantages Disadvantages More pressure burden-sharing of negotiating of economic assistance Involvement of China Can provide umbrella for bilateral talks Quiet diplomacy difficult Diversity of interests among participants Bilateral disputes can affect effectiveness

ICKS, Korea University 1993-4 and 2002-5: A comparison Bush Administration - Post-9.11 America North Korean nuclear capability Inter-Korea relations More visible role of China – advantage or disadvantage? U.S. preoccupation with Iraq Reevaluation of Agreed Framework U.S. – North Korea Bilateral Negotiation / Talks

Role of the Participants ICKS, Korea University Role of the Participants China: Changing priorities To keep North Korea afloat Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula Prevent armed conflict Is China doing enough? Can China do more? Critical and constructive role in 1993-4 China’s Leverages For U.S.-North Korea dialogue Limits of Chinese influence Necessary and possible measures Linkage with other issues (E. g. , Taiwan, Unocal)

Role of the Participants ICKS, Korea University Role of the Participants Japan Threat perception Abduction issue Relations with Korea, China over history, territorial issues Problem of coordination, U.S. leadership, NK perception Interest in 6-party meeting Financial burden (LWR, Energy, Economic cooperation)

Role of the Participants ICKS, Korea University Role of the Participants Russia 1. Energy supply 2. Diplomatic involvement – including 6-party meeting 3. North Korean view point – balance to China 4. Keep North Korea friendly

Role of the Participants ICKS, Korea University Role of the Participants U. S. Post 9.11 syndrome (changing priorities – from non-proliferation to anti-terrorism) Iraq constraints (military, diplomatic, intelligence, North Korean attitude) Working with allies (South Korea, Japan) The “options” issue – “carrots and sticks” Human rights issue Regime Change?

Role of the Participants ICKS, Korea University Role of the Participants South Korea Threat perception – prevention of war Means to persuade North Korea – security, economic, diplomatic U.S. relations Importance of alliance (Iraq dispatch) Strategic flexibility Dealing with North Korea Inter-Korea relations Uses of “sunshine policy” (Ease them out, not force them in) change North Korea Policy change North Korea keep peace improve inter- Korea relations

Prospects President Bush calls him “Mr.” Kim Jong-Il A breakthrough? ICKS, Korea University Prospects A breakthrough? President Bush calls him “Mr.” Kim Jong-Il U.S. – D.P.R.K. deal? Variation of Libyan formula Gradual improvement step by step/ freeze/ reduction/ dismantlement Gradual deterioration As time passes, more difficult for North Korea to give up Catastrophe is unlikely Kim Jong-Il is a rational actor No country wants catastrophe On U.S.-Korea alliance Mutual desire/willingness to keep it strong