Threats to infrastructure…and everything else
Today’s World I have seen it more dangerous (probably) I have not seen it more complicated (definitely) I have never seen it more immediate (you bet)
One “big thing”: Things That Seemed Permanent Are Proving Not to Be Things like the post WW II American liberal global order
And he isn’t helping. Getting a seat at the table…by threatening to overturn it!!
And other things are changing…like the maps and borders created after WW I
…even things like the meaning of state, citizenship, power and religion
What is the center of gravity of this conflict?? A war between civilizations or a war within a civilization?
In any event, this is going to take a while… Probably not this…. …maybe this
Brent Scowcroft (April 2012) But a still bigger change is about the power of states and the nature of power Nation states and hard power play less of a role Sub-state actors and even individuals are empowered Failed states create risk The US is “threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones.” (2002 National Security Strategy) Brent Scowcroft (April 2012)
WE ARE IN ANOTHER GREAT AGE OF GLOBALIZATION Not Unlike the Era of European Discovery
Threats from Non-State Actors: Products of Empowerment and Connectivity Terrorism Transnational Crime Cyber attacks
The products of empowerment and connectivity…we are familiar with terror
But the Web Is the Largest Ungoverned Space in History
So…What Could Go Wrong? There’s stealing your stuff There’s corrupting your stuff There’s hurting your network There’s creating physical destruction
And Who Could Do This? Nation States Criminal Gangs Hacktivists
We’ve Seen a Lot of This
North Korea Attacks Sony Pictures
And now, this….
But wait! There’s more… Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Power On Dec. 23, 2015 a massive power outage in western Ukraine left approximately 700,000 homes in the dark. That outage was quickly followed by two smaller outages…
So Where Is This Now??? “So we have to get very, very tough on cyber and cyber warfare. It is—it is a huge problem….The security aspect of cyber is very, very tough. And maybe it’s hardly doable.” On his first day in office, President Trump will direct the Department of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to develop “a comprehensive plan to protect America’s vital infrastructure from cyber attacks, and all other form of attacks.”
But Government Has Been Late to Need Since Big Questions Still Remain
When Government Is Late to Need, the Private Sector Steps In Private Sector as ”victim” Private sector as solution …since the cavalry isn’t coming
It’s a Bit of a Role Reversal Who is the “main body”?
The Case for (and against) Encryption Can you be in favor of cyber security AND demand exceptional access?
The Classic Risk Equation Threat x Vulnerability x Consequence
Buckle up. It’s going to be a tough century.