A Fully Coupled GCM Study of a "Geoengineered World"

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Presentation transcript:

A Fully Coupled GCM Study of a "Geoengineered World" D.J. Lunt, A. Ridgwell, P.J. Valdes, A. Seale Introduction Experimental Design Physical Understanding Impacts Conclusions + Future Work

A Guide to Geoengineering

The reality is more complex….. Annual mean surface temperature change Geoengineered - pre-industrial

HadCM3L – fully coupled, full complexity atmosphere + ocean model no flux correction 3.75o x 2.5o resolution, 19 (20) vertical levels in atmosphere (ocean) “State of the art”, in particular for >100 year simulations.

(1) Pre-industrial (PI) (2) High CO2 (4* PI), 3 simulations: (1) Pre-industrial (PI) (2) High CO2 (4* PI), (3) High CO2 (4* PI), reduced solar constant 4*CO2 4*CO2 Guess 1 17.24oC 12.78oC 12.77oC Guess 2 Pre-industrial Guess 3 4.2% = 57 W/m2 Pre-industrial

Solar forcing has strong meridional gradient Solar forcing has strong meridional gradient. CO2 forcing balances in global mean but is more meridionally homogeneous Solar forcing, TOA Temperature anomaly, Geo - PreInd

Decrease in poleward heat transport, by both atmosphere and ocean. Atmosphere dominates. Geo - Preind Preind

Annual mean surface temperature change Geoengineered - pre-industrial

Annual mean sea ice change Geoengineered - pre-industrial

Ocean circulation Preind meridional Atlantic streamfunction [Sv] Geo-Preind meridional Atlantic streamfunction [Sv]

Precipitation Soil moisture Storm tracks (500mbar EKE)

Vegetation Pre-Ind Geo (climate only) Geo (climate + CO2)

ENSO Control Geoengineered

Conclusions and Future Work ‘Sunshade’ geoengineering will lead to warmer poles, cooler tropics. Effects amplified by snow and seaice albedo feedbacks. Decreased intensity of the hydrological cycle. Decreased Pacific storm tracks Significant vegetation changes due to high CO2 Reduced ENSO variability Ocean acifidification? More realistic time-varying CO2 scenarios, and more realistic sunshade geometry.

A new journal for model descriptions… Geoscientific Model Development http://www.geoscientific-model-development.net Accepting contributions via the webpage NOW!) First GMD Discussions paper published online 1st January 2008 “Official Launch” at EGU, Vienna 2008 Any questions, contact the Executive Editors: gmd-executive-editors@copernicus.org