Energy: Supply and demand Dr. Ron Lembke
US Energy “Sankey” Diagram - 2011
US Energy “Sankey” Diagram - 2016
Hot, Flat, and Crowded Hot: Climate Change Flat: Technology and Bandwidth Crowded: More people, who want to live like us
The demand for energy
International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia.gov
EIA Demand Scenarios http://www.eia.gov/conf_pdfs/Monday/Sweetnam_eia.pdf
The supply of energy
Hubbert’s Peak M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),
Causality or Correlation?
When is the Peak? 2004 data
Different Scenarios http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=38&t=6
Fracking
EPA: 2-4 million gallons per well = 200 to 400 tanker trucks of water
Where Does it Come From?
Where does our oil come from?
Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook ~2009
Data, US EIA, 1/29/2015
Reserves, Production, years left Data: EIA, 1/29/2015
Tar Sands Strip mine for bitumen, a sandy oil solid Liquefy with steam and caustic soda NaOH Slurry is pumped, 2 tons of sand for 1 barrel (1/8 ton) of oil 90% recovery with centrifuges 17% more GHG than regular oil production Phases 3 & 4: “Keystone XL” Phase 4 goes over Ogallala Aquifer Drinking water for 2m people $20b agriculture 830,000 barrels per day Crosses earthquake zones June, 2010 Feb, 2011
Keystone XL 36” diameter 910mm up to 830,000 barrels per day Phase III – 700,000 bpd US production 12,500,000 barrels per day
Tar Sands Photo: Forbes
4b barrels 3,000 b barrels? 410T cu.ft 15b barrels 32T cu.ft
Green river formation 3,000 BILLION Barrels?!? Government Accountability Office and private industry Seems to be consensus that there is that much oil there 1 trillion barrels total human consumption so far GAO: Commercial development at least 15-20years away May require huge amounts of water They may get one barrel of water with every barrel of oil Traditional fracking won’t do it Oil tightly bound to the rock – heat to FIVE THOUSAND DEGREES “In situ”: send a heater down below Cost $65 per barrel
The Price of energy
Gas Prices 1990-2012 Data: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Price of Liquids
The Price of Fuel http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011 Death Valley, April 2012
NV Electricity Prices Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94
US Coal Reserves http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
Pinion Pine Power Plant DOE Clean Coal Air-blown Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle $335.9m, half DOE, half SPP New gasification method New desulfurization method
Carbon Capture & Sequestration Porous rock formations Small scale tests Expensive – lose 30% of electricity gained So make more electricity – It’s CARBON FREE! There are other pollutants What if it gets out? Natural gas stays safely underground
Solar Resources
Geothermal Resources
Wind Resources
Renewables’ Share growing
US Energy Sources
Summary Demand for energy is going to increase significantly Growing populations Rising standards of living Supply of energy not increasing as fast Global oil supplies are finite Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years Alternative energy sources
, Feb 2, 1962 ad in Life magazine Humble merged with Standard to become Exxon