Conclusions We are far from understanding the influence of spatial, temporal and functional scale What are functional scales? Why are results counterintuitive?

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Presentation transcript:

Conclusions We are far from understanding the influence of spatial, temporal and functional scale What are functional scales? Why are results counterintuitive? Do emergent properties exist? Our representation in models and scenarios is a caricature a best Why is space square? Why are case studies watersheds?

The way ahead Improve existing techniques Combine existing techniques Develop new integrating concepts

Multi-scale participatory scenarios Improve and combine: Using ‘reduced form’ models Multi-scale participatory scenarios E S I Local Regional National

The modelling toolbox Economic Ecological Social Institutional Farmer decisions Market behaviour Income Prices Ecological Climate change Crop growth Natural vegetation Institutional EU National government NGOs Social well-being Cultural changes Migration

Multi-scale participatory scenarios Combination with toolbox information Multi-scale participatory scenarios Local E S I Regional E S I National Theory

Integrating Concepts Lemniscate (Resilience Alliance) Transition curve (IA)

Panarchy (Gunderson & Holling, 2002)

Transition curve (Rotmans) Indicator Stabilisation Acceleration Take-off Predevelopment Time

Proposed solutions Wilbanks: Theoretical understanding of cross-scale dynamics Giampietro: Complex time Easterling: Self-organisation and resilience Rotmans: Transition management for sustainable development

Discussion points Does scale really matter? -- It is but common sense It will never be solved -- The scale-problem is too complicated