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www.culturalcognition.net “Fake News,” “Alternative Facts,” and the Science Communication Environment Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many x 103 others
Fake news . . .
. . . the “alternative facts” presidency
The passive aggregator model: misinformation supply Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation The passive aggregator model: Politically/Eco- nomically motivated interest groups misinformation supply Credulous Public
Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation The passive aggregator model: Politically/Eco- nomically motivated interest groups misinformation supply Credulous Public The motivated-public model: demand for misinformation Culturally Motivated Public Opportunistic Misinformers
Fake news . . .
Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation The passive aggregator model: Politically/Eco- nomically motivated interest groups misinformation supply Credulous Public The motivated-public model: demand for misinformation Culturally Motivated Public toxic memes Opportunistic Misinformers
“Skin cream experiment”
“Skin cream experiment”
Covariance & Numeracy Derived via logistic regression. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.
“Gun ban experiment”
Four conditions
Correct interpretation of data Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub) skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score
Correct interpretation of data Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub) skin treatment Numeracy score Gun ban Numeracy score
Best fitting regression model for experiment results rash_decrease 0.40 (1.57) rash increase 0.06 (0.22) crime increase 1.07 (4.02) z_numeracy -0.01 (-0.05) z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease 0.55 (2.29) z_numeracy_x_rash_increase 0.23 (1.05) z_numeracy_x_crime_increase 0.46 (2.01) z_numeracy2 0.31 (2.46) z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease 0.02 (0.14) z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase -0.07 (-0.39) z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase -0.31 (-1.75) Conserv_Repub -0.64 (-3.95) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.56 (2.64) Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase 1.28 (6.02) Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase 0.63 (2.82) z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub -0.33 (-1.89) z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.33 (1.40) z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase 0.54 (2.17) z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase 0.26 (1.08) _constant -0.96 (-4.70) N = 1111. Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases skin treatment rash increases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decrease rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy rash increases rash increases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash decreases rash increases rash increases skin treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% crime increases 80% 90% 100% crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
Monte carlo simulations Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub) high numeracy = 7 correct low numeracy = 3 correct Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub) Low numeracy High numeracy Avg. “polarization” on crime data for low numeracy partisans 25% (± 9%) Avg. “polarization” on crime data for high numeracy partisans 46% (± 17%) crime decreases crime decreases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime increases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases crime decreases Gun ban crime increases crime increases crime decreases 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data
r = -0.65, p < 0.01 Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1800
r = -0.65, p < 0.01 Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1800
r = -0.65, p < 0.01 r = -0.65, p < 0.01 Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1800
Private gun possession Conservative Republican Extremely high risk Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat Conserv Republican Conservative Republican None at all 1st percentile 50th percentile 99th percentile Ordinary science intelligence shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.
Fracking Ordinary science intelligence Extremely high risk None at all 1st percentile 50th percentile 99th percentile Ordinary science intelligence shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.
Global Warming Ordinary science intelligence Extremely high risk None at all 1st percentile 50th percentile 99th percentile Ordinary science intelligence shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.
Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation The passive aggregator model: Politically/Eco- nomically motivated interest groups misinformation supply Credulous Public The motivated-public model: demand for misinformation Culturally Motivated Public Opportunistic Misinformers
Factual polarization: Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking
Factual polarization: not too little rationality Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking
Factual polarization: not too little rationality but too much Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking
Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation The passive aggregator model: Politically/Eco- nomically motivated interest groups misinformation supply Credulous Public The motivated-public model: demand for misinformation Culturally Motivated Public Opportunistic Misinformers
Factual polarization Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking
Factual polarization Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking
Factual polarization is not normal Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking
Factual polarization is not normal Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Medical x-ray Flouridation Raw Milk Synthetic beef hormones GM Foods Nanotechnology
Factual polarization is not normal Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Medical x-ray Flouridation Raw Milk Synthetic beef hormones GM Foods Nanotechnology
Factual polarization is pathological Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking
Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation The passive aggregator model: Politically/Eco- nomically motivated interest groups misinformation supply Credulous Public The motivated-public alternative: toxic memes demand for misinformation Culturally Motivated Public Opportunistic Misinformers
Toxic memes, Zika virus . . .
misinformation supply demand for misinformation Theories of misinformation and mass opinion formation The standard view: Politically/Eco- nomically motivated interest groups misinformation supply Credulous Public The motivated-public model: demand for misinformation toxic memes Culturally Motivated Public Opportunistic Misinformers
Trump as toxic meme propagator
Factual polarization is not normal Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Medical x-ray Fluoridation Raw Milk Synthetic beef hormones GM Foods Nanotechnology
Factual polarization is not normal Global warming Private gun ownership Fracking Medical x-ray Fluoridation Raw Milk Synthetic beef hormones GM Foods Nanotechnology
Trump as toxic meme propagator
. . . the “alternative facts” presidency & the rope-a-dope dilemma
Toxic memes, Zika virus . . .
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