EU Aging Population

The share of the population aged 65 years and over is increasing in every EU Member State, EFTA country and candidate country. The increase within the last decade ranges from 5.2 percentage points in Malta and 4.0 percentage points in Finland, to less than 1.0 percentage points in Luxembourg and Belgium. The growth in the relative share of older people may be explained by increased longevity, a pattern that has been apparent for several decades as life expectancy has risen. This development is often referred to as ‘ageing at the top’ of the population pyramid.

Economic development and the improvement in some environmental conditions (for example in many urban areas), improved lifestyles, advances in healthcare and medicine, including reduced infant mortality, have resulted in a continuous increase in life expectancy at birth across Europe during the last century. This process has been going on for longer in Europe than in most other parts of the world, placing the EU-28 among the world leaders for life expectancy. Over the past 50 years, life expectancy at birth has increased by about 10 years for both men and women in the EU-28. Further gains are expected to be achieved mostly from the reduction in mortality at older ages. 

While life expectancy has risen in all EU Member States, there are still major differences between and within countries. For men, the lowest life expectancy in 2014 was recorded in Latvia (69.1 years) and the highest in Cyprus (80.9 years). For women, the range was narrower, from a low of 78.0 years in Bulgaria to a high of 86.2 years in Spain. For comparison, in 2010, the lowest and highest life expectancies were recorded in Lithuania (67.6 years) and Sweden (79.6) for men, and in Bulgaria (77.0 years) and Spain (85.5) for women.

One of the most significant changes that led to increases in life expectancy at birth were reductions in infant mortality rates. During the 10 years from 2004 to 2014 the infant mortality rate in the EU-28 fell by more than a quarter; extending the analysis to the last 20 years shows that the infant mortality rate was halved. The most significant reductions in infant mortality were generally recorded within those EU Member States which tended to record higher levels of infant mortality in 2004, compared with the EU average. Despite this progression, some EU Member States still had relatively high infant mortality rates in 2014, for example, Romania (8.4 deaths per 1 000 live births) and Bulgaria (7.6). In 2014, the lowest infant mortality rates in the EU-28 were in Cyprus (1.4 deaths per 1 000 live births), Slovenia (1.8) and Sweden (2.2).

On the other hand, consistently low levels of fertility over many years have contributed to population ageing, with fewer births leading to a decline in the proportion of young people in the total population. This process is known as ‘ageing at the bottom’ of the population pyramid, and can be observed in the narrowing base of the EU-28 population pyramids between 2001 and 2015.

Immigration: to the South and East of Europe lie considerably poorer countries with young and growing populations. However, immigration is a growing issue in its own right. Also the immigrants themselves will eventually age. Work longer and start receiving your pension later - but are Europeans willing to vote for governments that suggest this? New birth policies - encourage people to have more children using the tax system perhaps? A 2004 EU-funded study by the Robert Bosch Foundation found the costs of having another child and fears about the society they would grow up in were key reasons not to have children. It also found that women generally would like to have more children than they actually have. 

France: A pro-natalist population policy Image from www.frenchflag.us

What is a pro-natalist policy? A pro-natalist policy is a population policy which aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives.

The French policy Long history - in 1939 the French passed the ‘Code de la famille’ – a complex piece of pro-natalist legislation. Offered cash incentives to mothers who stayed at home to care for children. Subsidised holidays Banning of the sale of contraceptives (repealed in 1967)

French government incentives: Payment of up to UK £1064 to couples having third child Generous maternity grants Family allowances to increase the purchasing power of three-child families Maternity leave, on near full pay, ranges from 20 weeks for the first child to 40 or more for a third. 100% mortgage and preferential treatment in the allocation of 3 bedroomed council flats

More government incentives…. Full tax benefits to parents until the youngest child reaches 18 30% fare reduction on all public transport for 3 child families Pension schemes for mothers / housewives Child-orientated development policies e.g. provision of creches, day-nurseries etc Depending on the family's income, childcare costs from virtually nothing to around €500 a month for the most well-off. Nursing mothers are encouraged to work part-time or take a weekly day off work

“France plans to pay cash for more babies” Headline in the Guardian 2005 French celebrate biggest baby boom since 1980s Independent January 2007 “France had more babies in 2006 than in any year in the past quarter century, capping a decade of rising fertility that has bucked Europe's greying trend.“ “As its population ages, France needs more babies” San Diego Union-Tribune Feb 06 “Cash payments, tax breaks and subsidized child care have helped make France's fertility rate the second highest in Europe. It still isn't high enough to rescue the country from an aging population that threatens state spending on pensions and health.”

Social protection benefits for the families in Europe: cash / in kind [education excluded] (in % of GDP)

Some traits of the French family policy Complex and not always consistent More than 30 measures (not easy to evaluate) Means-tested benefits (for social redistribution), but also tax cuts (quotient familial, tax-splitting system") Still wavering between extra support to the 3rd child and benefits from the 1st child But quite consensual and politically neutral Unquestioned in the last electoral debates Confirmed every year by la Conférence de la famille More feministic then familistic No need to be married; no need to stay home Strong support to the one-parent families A 60-year continuity that inspires confidence in the population www.munich-economic-summit.com/mes_2007/speeches/sp_heran.ppt

Solutions UK – Raised retirement age Age discrimination act (designed to keep older people in work) Changes to public sector pension (Basic pay = £3890 = £307 NI, £524 PAYE, £427 Pension 2011-2015 inc contribution from 6.4% to 8% Temporary economic migrants from Eastern Europe Changes to workplace pensions, enforced enrollment We're all in!

http://www.politico.eu/article/solve-migration-crisis-europe-schengen/