North Penn School District Enrollment Projections School Board of Directors June 6, 2017 Prepared by the Montgomery County Planning Commission
North Penn SD Enrollment Trends Enrollment in the North Penn School District over the next 10 years will depend upon: Recent and future births Demographic change Moves in and out of the school district New housing construction Nonpublic Schools, Charter and Cyber Charter Schools, and Homeschooling options The Cohort Progression Method accounts for recent trends under these factors 2
Part 1 School District Characteristics
North Penn SD Population Trends The NPSD area grew by 5.8% in the ‘00 decade after exceeding 20% in previous decades. Growth to 2020 continues the trend from last decade with 5.3% growth expected. Population increases do not necessarily correlate to an increase in school age children. School age children declined over the last decade as did district enrollment in years between 2000 and 2010. The population most likely to give birth also declined. Age Cohort 2000 Total 2010 Total 2000-2010 Change 0-4 6,378 5,722 -656 5-17 16,964 16,043 -921 25-34 13,038 12,041 -997
Birth Activity Birth activity has been subject to a gradual decline over the last fifteen years in the NPSD, with a modest comeback recently, which is similar to the pattern of declining births in most districts and the county as a whole Births are directly related to future elementary school students, but other factors can disrupt that relationship, i.e. independent school, moving The effects of changes in birth trends are far removed (6+ years) NPSD Birth Totals by School Year Countywide Birth Totals Source: PA Department of Health 5
Child-Bearing Aged Females Countywide, Females Age 25-34 are rising and they are projected to peak by 2025. This growth corresponds to the Millennial Generation. Source: DVRPC In the NPSD, Females Age 25-29 and 30-34 decreased by a net of 605 from 2000 to 2010 Look at the bump in 15-24 cohorts, the drop in most fertile 25-34 cohorts. If college age females don’t stay then we might not see the increase in 2020 births. Age Cohort 2000 Females 2010 Females 15 – 19 2,614 2,828 20 - 24 2,058 2,459 25 - 29 2,972 2,931 30 - 34 3,713 3,149 35 - 39 4,352 3,315 40 -44 4,217 3,601 The younger age cohorts increased, although these younger ages are much more fluid in their movement in and out of the district. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 6
School District Enrollment ES grows by 235, or 27% The last ten years of enrollment in the NPSD reflect the end of the declining period and subsequent trend of increasing enrollment. 7
School District Enrollment by Grade Levels When broken down by grade distributions, enrollment growth in the NPSD has been fueled at the elementary school level over the last 3 years, while middle school totals have declined, and high school has fluctuated. Some cycling is expected looking forward. 8
Other School Enrollment Nonpublic school enrollment has generally trended downward in the county since the recession, but reasons may not be solely economic. Two data sources appear to confirm the decline in nonpublic school students living the NPSD, although neither data source is perfect. Census Data NPSD Bus Data Year Private School Students Percent Private Students in NPSD Dataset 2000 3,609 21.2% Census 2000, Summary File 3 2010* 3,279 20.7% ACS, 5 Year Estimates, 2006-2010 2015* 2,919 18.7% ACS, 5 Year Estimates, 2011-2015 School Year Nonpublic School Students 2011-12 3,078 2012-13 2,669 2013-14 2,385 2014-15 2,364 2015-16 2,581 2016-17 2,680 2009 Bus Data showed 671 nonpublic students Show the top private schools in report * 5 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 5 years worth of sampling data Source: North Penn School District Bus Records Homeschool and charter and cyber charter school options have held at a fairly consistent level and have a lesser impact on public school enrollment. 9
Part 2 Housing Activity
Impact of Housing Types on School-Age Children MCPC conducted a study on the characteristics of the population in different housing types, which included the presence of school-age children North Penn SD has factors for existing housing types that are very similar to countywide results. Montgomery County Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Multifamily School Aged Children per Household in Existing Units 0.55 0.41 0.18 School Aged Children per Household in New Units 0.93 0.21 0.06 Source: MCPC, using 2010 Census data North Penn School District Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Multifamily School Aged Children per Household in Existing Units 0.58 0.41 0.16 School Aged Children per Household in New Units 0.84* 0.08* 0.11* * Based on limited sample size. 11
Impact of Existing Multifamily Developments on Public School Enrollment MCPC analyzed the number of students coming from all multifamily developments with over 20 units in the North Penn School District. Multifamily developments are increasing in their student/unit ratio in many districts Address-only rosters were used for this analysis All Multifamily (20+ Units) Multifamily Built After 2000 (20+ Units) School Year North Penn SD Students Total Units Student / Unit 2009-10 777 5,350 0.145 2012-13 897 0.168 2015-16 1,114 0.208 2016-17 1,178 0.220 School Year North Penn SD Students Total Units Student / Unit 2009-10 52 650 0.080 2012-13 57 0.088 2015-16 66 0.102 2016-17 69 0.106 12
Housing Construction – Units Built, 2007-2016 Over the last 5 years, an average of 175 units per year were built if you exclude the Age Restricted Developments. This translates to an average of 46 additional school-age children per year – a baseline for determining impact of future development 13
Housing Construction, 2012-2016 14
Impact of Potential Housing Development The table below shows the most likely new developments on the horizon Other sites and properties may be in play, but are less certain at this time If all developments were built as indicated, an additional 121 public school students would be generated The timelines are best estimates Development Type Total Units Built by School Years Notes Public School Children Impact Factor for School Age Children Walnut Creek SFA 184 2017—2019 Under construction. 31 .21 Belmont Estates SFD 23 2017, 2018 17 .93 Walnut Street Subdivision SFD 10 2021 Plan awaiting approvals. 8 Fortuna Station 59 2018, 2019 Thorndale Development 126 2017 Nearing completion of construction, last 27 units delivered by 2017 school year. 5 .2.21 Station Place 2020 2 Penn Square 40 Approved and awaiting construction to begin. 7 Madison Lot Project MF 175 2019—2021 Approved and awaiting construction. 9 .06 Andale Green 172 2017—2020 Under construction in phases. 29 .21.21 Cottage Avenue 22 Conditional use approved, awaiting developer plans. 4 Other Future Possibilities Hatfield Potential 200+ Up to 200+ units possible across a few sites. Newbury Phase II Working on final plans, but currently stalled. Martin Property 20+ Still in conceptual planning stage. Walnut Street Apartments 120 Plans still evolving. 15
Potential Housing Development Fortuna Station 59 SFA under construction. Newbury Phase II 20 SFD currently stalled and working on revisions to plan. Penn Square 40 SFA approved and awaiting construction Cottage Avenue 22 SFA conditional use approved and awaiting final plans. Andale Green 172 SFA under construction. Station Place 10 SFA waiting for necessary approvals. Madison Lot Project 175 MF approved and awaiting construction. Walnut Creek 184 SFA approved and in construction. Belmont Estates 23 SFD nearing completion. Thorndale 126 SFA nearing completion. Walnut Street Subdivision 10 SFD waiting for approvals. Martin Property Potential for 20+ SFD units. Walnut Street Apartments 120 unit MF development that is still evolving while going through pre-development process. Hatfield Potential The township has a number of properties in play that could result in 200+ units in the future. 16
The Impact of Existing Housing Sales in NPSD Year of Housing Units Sold 2012 2014 2016 Number of Existing Units Sold 959 1048 1186 Incoming Students at Address of Units Sold 194 193 227 Outgoing Students at Address of Units Sold 169 170 181 Net Change in Students from Sales Activity +25 +23 +46 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission The last four years of data show a slow increase in housing sales after a period of variability in sales. The sales from 2012, 2014, 2016 all brought in more children than left the district. If sales increase, an increase in students is expected from that activity – the churning of households. New households also have a high likelihood of adults age 25-34 17
Existing Housing Sales, 2012-2016 18
Part 3 District Enrollment Projections
What is the Cohort Progression Model? Grade Transition B-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 5 year avg. 0.735 1.168 1.003 1.005 1.012 1.008 1.015 1.030 0.964 1.048 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT GRADE YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015-16 1,041 765 944 945 1,015 1,007 1,020 1,016 1,053 952 929 1,044 1,040 1,028 12,757 2016-17 1,063 781 894 947 949 1,026 1,011 1,032 1,056 957 956 1,006 1,090 12,734 2017-18 1,132 832 913 897 951 960 1,031 1,035 1,061 985 922 1,055 12,705 2018-19 1,083 796 972 916 901 962 965 1,047 1,093 966 12,682 2019-20 1,097 806 930 975 920 911 967 973 1,038 1,052 1,071 995 12,747 2020-21 942 933 980 931 987 1,059 1,043 1,104 12,791 2021-22 937 991 935 923 990 1,064 1,074 1,082 12,724 2022-23 948 996 943 993 1,096 1,036 1,094 12,680 2023-24 953 1,004 940 998 1,025 1,085 12,621 2024-25 1,019 1,027 988 1,107 12,574 20
Grade Progression Rates – NPSD School Year Birth-K* K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 2012-13 0.740 1.177 1.002 0.989 1.007 1.003 0.999 1.005 0.994 0.997 1.022 0.952 1.060 2013-14 0.737 1.165 1.018 0.991 1.004 1.013 1.030 1.015 1.040 0.957 1.042 2014-15 0.749 1.184 1.016 1.010 1.031 0.993 0.995 1.021 0.950 1.048 2015-16 0.724 1.182 0.986 1.028 1.012 1.006 1.039 0.972 1.034 2016-17 0.726 1.134 1.017 1.014 1.011 1.055 5 Year Average 0.735 1.168 1.008 0.964 On average in NPSD, all classes except for the 10th grade add students from one grade to the next – signified by a progression rate above 1.0 The Birth – Kindergarten ratio is different than other transitions, and more volatile. It connects births from 6 years prior to the kindergarten class they impact These rates reflect the trends that have been discussed in this study 21
Enrollment Projection Model Primary (next 5 years) and Secondary (6-10 years away) Periods 3 scenarios have been prepared based on alternative futures depending on housing and birth rates. Option 1 – Base Future Birth Estimate Progression rate averages are based on five years Future births are estimated as an average of the last six years Option 2 – Higher Future Birth Estimate Maintains the same progression rates as Option One Increase in Estimated Births—Births affecting the enrollment size of classes beginning in 2021-22 could progressively increase beginning with the 2015-16 birth estimates Option 3 – Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housing Adjustment for Likely Development Maintains the same progression rates and higher future birth estimate used in Option Two Accounts for increase in expected housing construction with an adjustment that recognizes impact beyond trend development level ** Recommended Scenario ** Higher birth could occur due to increase in fertility rates, possibly due to economy, as well as an increase in sales activity 22
Scenario Comparisons, All Grades K-12 Year Option 1—Base Future Births Option 2 – Higher Future Births Option 3—Housing Adjustment with Higher Future Births 2016-17 (Current) 12,870 5 Yr. Change from 2016-17 to 2021-22 -123 -117 -81 5 Yr. Change from 2021-22 to 2026-27 -173 115 150 2026-27 (Projected) 12,574 12,868 12,939 10 Yr. Change Since 2016-17 -296 -2 69 Option 1 - Without any adjustments to the model, trends show that the District is expected to decline in both the primary and secondary periods. Option 2 – Increased birth activity results in student gains during the secondary period, but resulting in no net change overall. Option 3 – The primary period decline lessens with new housing construction and births and new development account for a larger gain in the secondary period. 23
Public School Enrollment Projections, District Year Option 1— Base Future Births Option 2 – Higher Future Births Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment 2016-17 (Current) 12,870 2017-18 12,757 12,770 2018-19 12,734 12,767 2019-20 12,705 12,753 2020-21 12,682 12,724 2021-22 12,747 12,789 5 Yr. Change from 2016-17 to 2021-22 -123 -117 -81 2022-23 12,791 12,818 12,861 2023-24 12,790 12,840 2024-25 12,680 12,804 2025-26 12,621 12,820 12,884 2026-27 12,574 12,868 12,939 5 Yr. Change from 2021-22 to 2026-27 -173 115 150 10 Yr. Change Since 2016-17 -296 -2 69 Option 3—Annual Change -100 -3 -14 -29 65 72 -21 21 23 55 24
Elementary School Summary, Grades K-6 Year Option 1— Base Future Births Option 2 – Higher Future Births Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment 2016-17 (Current) 6,815 2017-18 6,711 6,718 2018-19 6,638 6,655 2019-20 6,604 6,630 2020-21 6,552 6,574 2021-22 6,483 6,488 6,507 5 Yr. Change from 2016-17 to 2021-22 -332 -327 -308 2022-23 6,482 6,509 6,532 2023-24 6,480 6,546 6,573 2024-25 6,529 6,653 6,684 2025-26 6,560 6,759 6,794 2026-27 6,823 6,861 5 Yr. Change from 2021-22 to 2026-27 46 335 354 10 Yr. Change Since 2016-17 -286 8 Option 3—Annual Change -97 -63 -25 -56 -67 25 41 111 110 67 25
Middle School Summary, Grades 7-9 Year Options 1 & 2—Base and Higher Future Births Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment 2016-17 (Current) 2,887 2017-18 2,933 2,936 2018-19 3,044 3,052 2019-20 3,140 3,151 2020-21 3,122 3,132 2021-22 3,146 3,154 5 Yr. Change from 2016-17 to 2021-22 259 267 2022-23 3,090 3,099 2023-24 3,056 2024-25 2,925 2,938 2025-26 2,895 2,909 2026-27 2,924 2,940 5 Yr. Change from 2021-22 to 2026-27 -222 -214 10 Yr. Change Since 2016-17 37 53 Option 3—Annual Change 49 116 99 -19 22 -55 -43 -118 -29 31 26
High School Summary, Grades 10-12 Year Options 1 & 2—Base and Higher Future Births Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment 2016-17 (Current) 3,168 2017-18 3,112 3,115 2018-19 3,052 3,060 2019-20 2,961 2,972 2020-21 3,008 3,018 2021-22 3,119 3,127 5 Yr. Change from 2016-17 to 2021-22 -49 -41 2022-23 3,219 3,229 2023-24 3,200 3,212 2024-25 3,225 3,239 2025-26 3,166 3,181 2026-27 3,122 3,138 5 Yr. Change from 2021-22 to 2026-27 3 11 10 Yr. Change Since 2016-17 -46 -30 Option 3—Annual Change -53 -55 -88 46 109 102 -17 27 -58 -43 27
Part 4 School Profiles
Elementary School Forecasts Individual schools can be difficult to project due to non-municipal boundaries, redistricting, and smaller sizes MCPC profiles include: Past Enrollments Housing Construction Housing Sales Related Birth Figures Housing Potential Five year forecasts are best guesses given what we know and how it fits into the context of the overall district model for elementary schools ES School Estimated Change Through 2021-22 Knapp ES 30 Kulp ES 15 Nash ES Gwynedd Square ES -10 Bridle Path ES -15 York Avenue ES -20 Hatfield ES -25 North Wales ES Oak Park ES Walton Farm ES -30 Gwyn Nor ES -70 Inglewood ES -85 Montgomery ES -105 29
Middle School Forecasts Total Middle School Enrollment Option 3 Past Enrollment—The three middle schools have exhibited different overall trends since 2011. Pennbrook - cycled up and down to remain steady. Penndale - declined by over 200. Pennfield - gained about 50. Forecast—The combined MS totals will grow over the next 3 years, stabilize, and then decline during the secondary period (last five years). Over the next five years… Pennbrook is the least likely to grow. Penndale should grow again with new construction and currently reduced class sizes cycling through. Pennfield should also grow, but much less than Penndale. Year Enrollment 2016-17 (Current) 2,887 2017-18 2,936 2018-19 3,052 2019-20 3,151 2020-21 3,132 2021-22 3,154 5 Yr. Change from 2016-17 to 2021-22 267 2022-23 3,099 2023-24 3,056 2024-25 2,938 2025-26 2,909 2026-27 2,940 5 Yr. Change from 2021-22 to 2026-27 -214 10 Yr. Change Since 2016-17 53 30
Conclusion General trends would provide for a decrease of almost 300 students over the next ten years, but birth activity and new housing are expected to counteract the decline and result in a net gain of almost 70 students. Important Trends: Housing construction is expected to outpace the recent trend level and bring additional growth. Several projects could add an additional 71 students above the trend development level. Birth activity has been relatively low in recent years, but it could increase further as the millennial generation moves into child-bearing ages. This effect will not be as relevant to enrollment until the secondary period and beyond. The number of students coming from older apartment buildings has increased by over 50% since 2009. Additional students are also resulting from an increase in housing sales activity. Measures to observe in coming years that could affect the longer term projections: School Calendar Birth Rates Residential Development Sales Activity Nonpublic School Enrollment Students in Multifamily Housing 31