ECASA Modelling Workshop Models, Model Systems and Procedures EcoWin2000 and ASSETS Ecasa Meeting 4 Oban, Scotland www.ecowin.org/ecasa/ J.G.Ferreira A. Sequeira January 2006

Topics Model descriptions 4 Scales of application State of implementation Scientific testing, application to mariculture Indicators, EQOs Synthesis 4 6 6 Slides 5 4 1 26+2 Guincho, Portugal

EcoWin2000 – A Brief Introduction Object-oriented Modelling Architecture of EcoWin2000 Building a new model Data handling Combining models Applications This presentation is live at http://www.ecowin.org/

Object-oriented Modelling Primary Producer Noun: Biomass Verb: Produce Origins are in object-oriented programming (OOP) Objects have attributes (variables) and methods (functions) Objects have specific behaviour Inheritance Encapsulation Modularity Re-usability Polymorphism Phytoplankton Noun: One-cell organism Verb: Float Dinoflagellate Noun: Saxitoxin Verb: “Swim”

EcoWin2000 Attributes, active and passive methods for some objects Object Sample attributes* Typical active methods Typical passive methods Transport Salt Advection-diffusion - Dissolved Forms of DIN, PO43-, Nitrification, formation Mineralization of detritus, substances SiO2, D.O. of particulates exudation Phytoplankton Phytoplankton, Production, respiration, Grazing by zooplankton, toxic algae senescence, exsudation, fish, benthic production of toxins filter-feeders Phytobenthos Microalgae and Production, respiration, Grazing by animals macroalgae, senescence harvesting of seaweeds salt marsh flora Zooplankton Zooplankton, Eat (& slop), grow, Predation: other objects copepods reproduce, excrete, and within the object natural mortality, swim Zoobenthos Filter-feeders, Filter, grow, Fisheries, predation by deposit-feeders accumulate metals several other objects Nekton Fish, large Hunt (including select), Fisheries, hunting by invertebrates grow, reproduce, birds, infection (e.g. Sepia) excrete, natural mortality, swim, migrate

EcoWin2000 Public methods common to all EcoWin objects containing state variables Name Interaction with Role of the method Constructor Shell, common General initialisation of the object ancestor to all objects Destructor Shell Destruction of the object Turnon Shell Asks an object for the names of its state variables; Used for shell Go Shell, private methods Invoked every timestep; Responsible and attributes for accessing private section of the object where calculations take place Communicate Shell and other objects Used by other objects to enquire about state variable values Balance Other objects, private Contact channel with other objects, methods and attributes whose active methods alter properties of an object Integrate Shell, other objects Calls an integration routine within the ancestor object, requests transportation to the transport object

Data handling ~ 140,000 results Physico-Chemical Temperature Salinity & conductivity Light extinction Dissolved oxygen Suspended matter POM, POC Nutrients (N, P, Si) Biological Chlorophyll a & Phaeopigments Phytoplankton species Benthic invertebrate fauna SAV Macroalgae Lough Stations Samples Parameters Results Foyle 42 3284 105 23673 Larne 7 84 13 814 Belfast 63 7514 78 40565 Strangford 22 3043 98 19992 Carlingford 113 4912 273 34171 BarcaWin2000 software ~ 140,000 results

GIS Bathymetric data from soundings, coastline and other contours Bathymetric raster data at 25m spatial resolution Information on: Sampling stations Aquaculture sites LARNE FOYLE STRANGFORD GIS CARLINGFORD BELFAST

GIS - Criteria for ecosystem division into EcoWin2000 model boxes Physical data Homogenous physical conditions for Morphology Currents Vertical stratification   Water bodies defined for Water Framework Directive (WFD) implementation Due to management requirements for EQS, water body boundaries should fit model box limits Aquaculture sites When possible include aquaculture areas into boxes (rather than across boxes) Strangford Lough box layout

Model coupling: Spatial aggregation Delft3D Hydrodynamic model EcoWin2000 ecological model 34 boxes 2 layers 320 boxes 8 s layers

Model results: Residence time Water residence time e.g. e-folding: time for the concentration in a box to be reduced to a factor of 1/e, i.e. from an initial concentration of 100% to a concentration of about 37% Delft3D model EcoWin2000 model Surface Bottom Winter N Box 14/31 Inner boxes Box 8/25 Inner boxes 1/e Surface Bottom Summer Box 2/19 Outer boxes Residence time: 4 to 28 days Residence time: 4-18 days

Aquaculture in Sanggou Bay

Modelling ecosystem carrying capacity with E2K 10 objects, including kelp, oysters and scallops and man Individual growth and demographic distribution for oysters and scallops, using multiple inheritance About 40 state variables, not including derived variables Mass fluxes only are considered at ocean interface 6 year runtime (2190 days), with one hour timestep (takes about 2 minutes to run on a Pentium IV) Deposition Phytoplankton Shellfish Detritus Uptake Mortality Filtration Egestion Temperature Turbidity Light Kelp Tidal exchange Mass Flux Influence Mineralization Seeding Harvest Man Nutrients EcoWin2000 modelling platform, full coupled model. Nunes et al, 2003. A model for sustainable management of shellfish polyculture in coastal bays. Aquaculture, 219/1-4, 257-277

Chinese scallop individual growth under different conditions EcoWin 2000 – Sanggou Bay model Chinese scallop individual growth under different conditions Single individual, all alone in the bay... Single individual, standard model 93-94 Single individual, 10X seeding rate, Model 93-94

EcoWin2000 model - Sanggou Bay 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Simulated harvest 56500 18400 Scallops Oysters 60000 t y-1 Fisheries estimate Official data 24000 t y-1 42800 t y-1 13000 t y-1 Ton TFW y-1 Run conditions: 6 year run with 1h timestep, values for year 6, ten objects active

Comparison between standard model and scenario Phytoplankton Phytoplankton concentration in the bay Phytoplankton mass balance

EcoWin2000 references 2006 1995 A. Franco, J.G. Ferreira, A.M.Nobre, 2006. Development of a growth model for penaeid shrimp. Aquaculture, In Review . A.M.Nobre, J.G.Ferreira, A.Newton, T.Simas, J.D.Icely, R.Neves, 2005. Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models. Journal of Marine Systems, 56 (3/4), 375-390. Alvera-Azcarate, A., Ferreira, J.G., & Nunes, J.P., 2003. Modelling eutrophication in mesotidal and macrotidal estuaries. The role of intertidal seaweeds. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 57(4), 715-724. Nunes, J.P, Ferreira, J.G., Gazeau, F., Lencart-Silva, J., Zhang, X.L, Zhu M.Y. & Fang J.G., 2003. A model for sustainable management of shellfish polyculture in coastal bays. Aquaculture, 219/1-4, 257-277. Simas, T., Nunes, J.P. & Ferreira, J.G., 2001. Effects of global climate change on coastal salt marshes. Ecological Modelling. 139 (1), 1-15. Monvoisin, G., Bolito, C. & Ferreira, J.G., 1999. Fish dynamics in a coastal food chain, simulation and analysis. Oceanography of the Iberian Continental Margin. Boletin Instituto Español de Oceanografía Nº15 (1-4). 431-440. Ferreira, J.G., Duarte, P. and Ball, B., 1998. Trophic Capacity of Carlingford Lough for Aquaculture - Analysis by Ecological Modelling. Aquatic Ecology Vol. 31, 4, 361-378. Ferreira, J.G., 1995. EcoWin - An object-oriented ecological model for aquatic ecosystems. Ecol. Modelling, 79, 21-34.

Synthesis (E2K) EcoWin2000 was presented as a research model which may be used in ECASA for carrying capacity; E2k uses a range of equations depending on the application requirements, and can resolve hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry and population dynamics for target species – it is being used for carrying capacity assessment in SPEAR, SMILE, KEYZONES and ECASA; EcoWin2000 may be used as a research model to examine nutrient loading and aquaculture development scenarios – the results are used to drive screening models such as ASSETS to inform management; E2K has been extensively tested, and is a potentially valuable tool for informing an ecosystem approach to sustainable aquaculture development.

Coastal eutrophication Pressure-State-Response Drivers Agriculture – loss of fertilizer, etc Urban and industrial discharges Aquaculture Atmospheric deposition Internal (secondary) sources (e.g. P from sediments) Advection from offshore (e.g. N and P, certain types of HAB) Coastal eutrophication Pressure-State-Response Pressure N and P loading to the coastal system HAB phytoplankton “loading” from offshore State Primary symptoms Decreased light availability Increased organic decomposition Algal dominance changes Secondary symptoms Loss of SAV Low dissolved oxygen Harmful algae Response Fertilizer reduction WWTP (sewage, industry) Emmission controls Sediment dredging etc Time... Interdiction (e.g. HAB events)

ASSETS – Conceptual Model http://www.eutro.org/

ASSETS - Assessment of State Overall level of expression of eutrophic conditions 1 1 MODERATE HIGH MODERATE HIGH MODERATE MODERATE Primary symptoms high Primary symptoms high HIGH High primary and secondary symptom eutrophication problems Primary symptoms high Primary symptoms high and substantial and substantial High primary High primary symptoms symptoms but problems with more but problems with more secondary symptoms secondary symptoms serious secondary serious secondary becoming more becoming more levels indicate serious levels indicate serious symptoms still not being symptoms still not being expressed, indicating expressed, indicating expressed expressed potentially serious potentially serious problems problems 0.6 0.6 MODERATE LOW MODERATE LOW HIGH Substantial levels of eutrophic conditions occuring with secondary symptoms indicating serious problems Primary symptoms Primary symptoms MODERATE MODERATE beginning to indicate beginning to indicate Level of expression of Level of expression of Moderate primary Moderate primary symptoms symptoms possible problems possible problems eutrophic eutrophic conditions is conditions is but still very few but still very few substantial substantial secondary symptoms secondary symptoms expressed expressed 0.3 0.3 MODERATE HIGH High secondary symptoms indicate serious problems, but low primary indicates other factors may also be involved in causing conditions factors may be involved MODERATE LOW Moderate secondary symptoms indicate substantial eutrophic conditions, but low primary indicates other LOW LOW Low primary Low primary symptoms symptoms Level of expression of Level of expression of eutrophic eutrophic conditions is conditions is minimal minimal in causing the conditions in causing the conditions conditions 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 1 1 Low secondary Low secondary Moderate secondary Moderate secondary High secondary High secondary symptoms symptoms symptoms symptoms symptoms symptoms

ASSETS classification of state http://www.eutro.org Boston harbour

Strangford Lough – ASSETS Application ASSETS: HIGH Indices Overall Human Influence (OHI) ASSETS: 5 Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC) Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) ASSETS: 4 Methods Susceptibility Nutrient inputs Primary Secondary Future nutrient pressures Parameters Rating Expression Dilution potential High Low susceptibility Flushing potential Moderate Low Chlorophyll a Moderate Moderate Macroalgae Problems observed Dissolved Oxygen No problems Submerged Aquatic Losses Vegetation observed Low Nuisance and Toxic No Blooms Future nutrient pressures decrease Index Low LOW Improve Low http://www.eutro.org/

ASSETS: Four Chinese Systems Sanggou Jiaozhou Changjiang Huangdun ASSETS: HIGH ASSETS: GOOD ASSETS: BAD ASSETS: POOR Indices Overall Human Influence (OHI) Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC) Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) LOW MODERATE HIGH HIGH LOW LOW HIGH MODERATE NO CHANGE IMPROVE LOW WORSEN HIGH WORSEN HIGH Population (X 103) 200 4,940 400,000 500 Loading (tN y-1) 400 13,997 1,600,000 463 Watershed Rural Urban Heavily populated Rural characteristics Other influences Aquaculture Aquaculture, sewage, Sewage, industry, Aquaculture shipping, recreation shipping Management: GEF/UNEP Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (www.yslme.org), China Blue Sea Action Plan, Total Load Control Plan (in development), particularly hotspots (e.g. Changjiang)

Field data Research model Model green scenario ASSETS Model Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC) ASSETS OEC: 4 ASSETS OEC: Methods PSM SSM Parameters Value Level of expression Chlorophyll a 0.25 Epiphytes 0.50 0.57 Macroalgae 0.96 Moderate Dissolved Oxygen 0 Submerged Aquatic 0.25 0.25 Vegetation Low Nuisance and Toxic 0 Blooms Epiphytes 0.50 0.58 Macroalgae 1.00 Moderate Epiphytes 0.50 0.42 Macroalgae 0.50 Moderate Index MODERATE LOW MODERATE LOW Field data Research model 28% lower Model green scenario 4(5)

ASSETS classification of state

ASSETS systems and grades http://www.eutro.org/

ASSETS references 2006 2000 J.G. Ferreira, S.B. Bricker, T.C. Simas, 2006. Application and sensitivity testing of an eutrophication assessment method on coastal systems in the United States and European Union. J. Environmental Management, In Press. J. G. Ferreira, A. M. Nobre, T. C. Simas, M. C. Silva, A. Newton, S. B. Bricker, W. J. Wolff, P.E. Stacey, A. Sequeira, 2006. A methodology for defining homogeneous water bodies in estuaries – Application to the transitional systems of the EU Water Framework Directive. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 66 (3/4), 468-482. J.G.Ferreira, W.J.Wolff, T.C.Simas, S.B.Bricker, 2005. Does biodiversity of estuarine phytoplankton depend on hydrology? Ecological Modelling, 187(4) 513-523. A.M.Nobre, J.G.Ferreira, A.Newton, T.Simas, J.D.Icely, R.Neves, 2005. Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models. Journal of Marine Systems, 56 (3/4), 375-390. Newton, A., Icely, J.D., Falcão, M., Nobre, A., Nunes, J.P., Ferreira, J.G., Vale, C., 2003. Evaluation of Eutrophication in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, Portugal. Continental Shelf Research, 23, 1945-1961. Bricker, S.B., J.G. Ferreira, T. Simas, 2003. An Integrated Methodology for Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status. Ecological Modelling, 169(1), 39-60. Ferreira, J.G., 2000. Development of an estuarine quality index based on key physical and biogeochemical features. Ocean & Coastal Management, 43/1, 99-122.

Synthesis An overview of two types of models which may be used in ECASA was presented: EcoWin2000 as a research model for carrying capacity and ASSETS as a screening model for eutrophication assessment; E2k uses a range of equations depending on the application requirements, and can resolve hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry and population dynamics for target species – it is being used for carrying capacity assessment in SPEAR, SMILE, KEYZONES and ECASA; ASSETS is a highly aggregated model for eutrophication assessment, and has been applied in many parts of the world. It is based on a PSR framework, and has been proposed as a WFD-compliant methodology for EQS evaluation; EcoWin2000 may be used as a research model to examine nutrient loading and aquaculture development scenarios – the results are used to drive screening models such as ASSETS to inform management. This has been done for the Ria Formosa in the OAERRE project, and is currently being applied elsewhere; Both models have been extensively tested, and are potentially valuable tools for informing an ecosystem approach to sustainable aquaculture development; Recall the old “ black swan” aphorism: “All models are wrong. Some are useful” .