PEV Adoption: Preliminary Forecast

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Presentation transcript:

PEV Adoption: Preliminary Forecast Aniss Bahreinian July 14, 2017 Demand Analysis Working Group Aniss.Bahreinian@energy.ca.gov California Energy Commission

Transportation Electrification (TE) TE included in CEC forecast: Light Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs) Urban Transit Vehicles; rail and bus Electrified Heavy (commuter) Rail (starting in 2020) High Speed Rail (starting in 2025) Electric Medium Duty vehicles Off-Road Electrification Air & Sea Port Electrification Truck Stop Electrification Forklift California Energy Commission

Transportation Demand Cases Cases represent different levels of transportation electricity demand Demand Case Population Income Fuel Prices Petroleum Fuels Electricity / Natural Gas / Hydrogen High Demand High Low Mid Low Demand California Energy Commission

Transportation Models Key Inputs & Outputs California Energy Commission

Light Duty Vehicle Forecast Light duty vehicle demand forecast is based on: The CEC’s 2016-2017 residential and commercial surveys of consumer preferences (conducted by Resources Systems Group, RSG). Updated LDV models based on survey results. Latest projections of vehicle attributes, accounting for announced/projected technology developments in 2017 and beyond. California Energy Commission

Consumer Preferences Change: 2016 Survey Compared with 2013 Residential Commercial Higher preferences for ZEVs, with BEVs being the most favored among ZEVs Vehicle price is less important Vehicle price continues to be the most significant attribute Vehicle range is more important Tax credit and rebate more important; HOV lane access less important HOV lane access and Tax credits are both important Fuel economy is less important Acceleration is more important 6 California Energy Commission

Light-Duty Vehicle Stock Grows with Population and Economy California Energy Commission

Closer Look at Alternative Fuel Vehicle Share Throughout Forecast Light-Duty Vehicle stock Share by Fuel Type , Mid Case California Energy Commission

Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV) California Energy Commission

On-Road Registered PEVs : 2015 & 2016 Source: California Energy Commission Analysis of DMV data California Energy Commission

Share of 2015 State Vehicles, by Utility California Energy Commission

On-Road PEV Stock Forecast California Energy Commission

2030 PEV by Utility, High Demand California Energy Commission

Commercial vs Residential PEV Stock, Mid Case California Energy Commission

BEV and PHEV Stock, Mid Case California Energy Commission

PEV Forecast by Utility California Energy Commission

SDG&E PEV Forecast California Energy Commission

SDG&E Mid Case California Energy Commission

PG&E PEV forecast California Energy Commission

PG&E Mid Case, PEB by TYpe California Energy Commission

SCE PEV Forecast California Energy Commission

SCE Mid Case California Energy Commission

2028 PEV Electricity Demand (Gwh) California Energy Commission

Residential Charging Primarily Occurs at Home and Overnight (Self-Reported) Source: 2016-2017 California Vehicle (PEV Owner) Survey, conducted by RSG for California Energy Commission California Energy Commission

Trucks by Fuel Type & Technology Mid-Size Trucks Heavy Trucks California Energy Commission