“Persistent” Authoritarianism in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) Feb. 28 & March 1, 2012 Prof. M. Cammett

RECAP: The Middle East in Global Perspective Source: Freedom House (2012)

Why the “Democracy Deficit” in the MENA? Hypothesis 1: Culture Culture as religion: Islam Samuel Huntington (1984): “Islam has not been hospitable to democracy . . . In Islam, no distinction exists between religion and politics or between the spiritual and the secular, and political participation was historically an alien concept.”

Why the “Democracy Deficit”? Hypothesis 1: Culture (cont.) Culture as ethnicity and customs: Arab society a) Tribal culture: - Kinship ties - Resistance to authority - Violence b) Patriarchal culture

Critiques of Simple Culture-Based Explanations Islam and democracy: Empirical anomalies Religions are multifaceted Culture changes Little or no empirical evidence

Why the “Democracy Deficit”? Hypothesis 2: The Rentier State Thomas Friedman’s "First Law of Petropolitics“ (2006): “The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in petro-ist states.” What is the “rentier state”? - State dependence on rents (i.e., oil) Rentierism = ______Rent Revenue_________ Rent revenue + all other revenues - Rents accrue to state

Economies in the Middle East Oil Non-Oil (or minimal oil) Low GDP/cap. Algeria Egypt Iran Iraq Syria (declining) Sudan Yemen Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia Turkey High GDP/cap. Kuwait Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Israel

Why the “Democracy Deficit”? Hypothesis 2: The Rentier State (cont.) Rentier earnings  Absence of or limited democracy Logic? - Taxation effect: “No representation without taxation” - Repression effect (Bellin’s “coercive state”) - Modernization effect

Critiques of the Rentier State Argument Is the rentier state thesis sufficient to explain authoritarianism in the Middle East? It’s not inevitable - i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Chile, Botswana, etc. The mediating role of institutions: - Strength of pre-boom state institutions - i.e., Norway v. Saudi Arabia Variation in political openness among oil-dependent countries - i.e., Iran v. Kuwait v. Saudi Arabia

Hypothesis 3: Political Institutions Executive design: Monarchies v. single party republics, etc. Electoral systems Remember Jordan’s electoral system change?

What, if anything, is “exceptional” about the Middle East What, if anything, is “exceptional” about the Middle East? The “Coercive State” . . . Military Expenditures/GDP by Region (2005)

What Sustains the “Coercive State”? Rentier state Weak opposition 3) Patrimonial military International aid and support

U.S. Dept. of State Budget Request for “International Affairs” (FY2007) Military and Economic Support by Region (millions of US$)

Is the “Coercive State” Argument Convincing?

Promoting Democracy in the MENA Are/were democracy promotion efforts advisable? Then v. now: Should the U.S. support democracy in the Middle East?