2017 RTP Update Doug Murray May, 2017 RPG Meeting Welcome to.

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Presentation transcript:

2017 RTP Update Doug Murray May, 2017 RPG Meeting Welcome to

Agenda Natural Gas Price Assumption Emission Prices

Natural Gas Price Assumptions REF is the Reference Case and HOG is the High Oil and Gas Production Case from EIA Annual Energy Outlook

Natural Gas Price Assumptions NYMEX futures and World Bank forecast from Mid April

Natural Gas Price Assumptions After adding NYMEX futures and World Bank forecast decision was to use 2017 AEO High Oil and Gas Production Case forecast

Emission Costs Recent auction prices from the EPA website show SO2 allowances dropping to below $0.10/ton in some cases. This is a stark difference from a few years ago when prices were above $1,000/ton. Prices for seasonal and annual NOx allowances have also dropped recently. Annual NOx prices are now below $10/ton and seasonal prices in a range between $200 and $250 per ton. For this analysis we will not be including costs for CO2 emissions

? Questions Doug Murray douglas.murray@ercot.com 512.248.6908 Sandeep Borkar sandeep.borkar@ercot.com 512.248.6642