ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016

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Presentation transcript:

ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 THE CHALLENGE OF THE NUMERICAL ASSESSMENT OF RESILIENCE Maria Nogal This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 608166. The contents of this presentation are the author's views. The European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. RESILENS®consortium EU Horizon 2020 Project No. 653260

ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 ASSESSING RESILIENCE. WHY? STAGES PREVENTION & PREPAREDNESS RESPONSE RECOVERY PRE-DISASTER DURING DISASTER AFTER DISASTER LEARNING Assumptions; System of systems. To focus on the critical elements and their interdependencies. Analysis levels. Physical, operational (performance) and management levels. Dynamic problem.

ROAD TRANSPORT RESILIENCE ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 ROAD TRANSPORT RESILIENCE

ROAD TRANSPORT RESILIENCE ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 ROAD TRANSPORT RESILIENCE : Capacity of adaptation to the new situation (users information). 𝜶

RESILIENCE OF A GENERAL SYSTEM ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 RESILIENCE OF A GENERAL SYSTEM General approach to assess numerically the resilience of any system. Time Dimension Holistic Approach

RESILIENCE OF A GENERAL SYSTEM ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 RESILIENCE OF A GENERAL SYSTEM General approach to assess numerically the resilience of any system.

RESILIENCE OF A TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 RESILIENCE OF A TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Qualitative assessment based on Indicators ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 Qualitative assessment based on Indicators Two ways of filling in the table; (a) Indices/characteristics rely on subjective assessments (qualitative or semi-qualitative approach). (b) Indicators that quantify system attributes (e.g., reliability), which are assumed to be related to the resilience. What are the most important indicators? How much does any indicator explain the resilience (weight)? How overlapped are the indicators?

Qualitative assessment based on Indicators ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 Qualitative assessment based on Indicators The STRUCTURED EXPERT JUDGMENT ELICITATION FOR DEPENDENCE MODELLING is used to determine the dependence and overlapping between resilience and any possible indices, obtaining the structure of the dependence relations between variables. This approach can be used to identify the most relevant indicators to be considered when assessing those descriptors of traffic networks. This methodology will allow quantitative approaches, rather than the so common qualitative or semi-qualitative methods.

www.rain-project.eu www.resilens.eu ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP Azores, 28th June 2016 THANKS Maria Nogal nogalm@tcd.ie www.rain-project.eu www.resilens.eu