Travel Modelling Group Technical Advisory Committee March 5, 2014

Today’s Agenda 2013-2014 Workplan Progress Report New TMG Toolbox tools GTAModel V4 Progress Report Progress to-date Auto assignment results Transit assignment results 2014-2015 Workplan Discussion Next Meeting: Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 10:00 The next meeting will be held in the ITS Board Room (3rd floor) instead of our usual location

2013-2014 Workplan progress A Year In Review

Original 2013-2014 Work Plan

2013-2014 Work Plan Progress Task Status Durham Model Conversion Nearly complete/validation. Partial deployment to Durham. City of Toronto V2.00 Conversion Complete. Deployed on December 1, 2013. 2012 Emme Base Network Complete. Final update sent out January 31, 2014. TMG Website Complete. Updated regularly. Workshops None yet held. Waiting on computer infrastructure. GTAModel V4 (see next section)

New TMG Toolbox Tools Matrix Statistics: Produces a report (to file and/or to Logbook) of various matrix summaries (min, max, average) as well as a histogram. An optional weighting matrix can be applied. Line Group Results: Reports grouped transit line boardings by mode/operator for hard-coded line groups. Countpost Results: Reports traffic volumes on links with flagged countposts. Check Network Integrity: Checks that a scenario is prepared for assignment and won’t cause errors. Various Traffic & Transit Assignment tools for GTAModel V4

GTAModel V4 Progress

GTA Model V4 (Original) Work Plan November December January February 18 - 22 25 - 29 2 - 6 9 - 13 16-20 23 - 27 30 - 3 6 - 10 13 - 17 20-24 27-31 3 - 7 10 - 14 17 - 21 24 - 28 Task 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0. Network Models   Network Estimation 1. Synthesis 2. Car Ownership 3. PORPOW 4. PORPOS 5. NWS Location Choice 6. Rail Access Station Choice 7. TASHA - Activity Generation 8. TASHA - Activity Scheduling 9. TASHA - Mode Choice, etc. 10. External Trips 11. Special Generators 12. Convergence 13. Model system testing (TMG) TMG Staff (James or Peter) EJM & TMG Staff (Eric + James or Peter) Prof. Khandker Habib Prof. Eric Miller All TMG Staff (Eric, James, & Peter) Model deployment by March 3, 2014

GTAModel V4 Progress Not Applicable Completed In-Progress Stage Model Designed Prepared Data Coded Debugged Estimated Validated Comment Population Synthesis   PoRPoW/Car Ownership/Pop Synth all intertwined Car Ownership TASHA Activity Generation TASHA Activity Scheduling PoRPoW PoRPoS NWS Location Choice Mode Choice Waiting on Network Assignment to start estimation. Also, DAT mode still needs to be coded Park-and-Ride Station Choice Auto Assignment Transit Assignment (see subsequent slides) Fare-Based Transit Assignment May or may not be needed in the final version. External Trips Airport Model Completed In-Progress Not Yet Begun Not Applicable

Network Assignment GTAModel V4 Progress Update

Auto Assignment Using a variant on the standard Toll-Based Road Assignment, which includes manually-calculated transit background traffic. Key parameters: Peak/Representative Hour Factor Toll Perception Link Cost Toll Cost

Auto Assignment Results: Peak Hour Factors

Auto Assignment Results: Representative Hour Factors

Auto Assignment: Toll Perception Factor

Auto Assignment: Toll Perception Factor

Transit Assignment Using Emme 4’s Congested Transit Assignment tool (a translation of captras.mac). GO Rail is included as part of a blended assignment (no line-haul assignment required). Model headways are based on actual headways, so a line with one trip in the AM will have a headway of 180.0. Using XTMF’s built-in estimation framework & Genetic Algorithm to estimate parameters. Relevant parameters: Wait time, walk time, and congestion perception factors Peak/representative hour factor Boarding penalties by operators & mode

Transit Assignment: Genetic Algorithm Convergance

Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM) Top 3 Genomes RANK Truth 1 2 3 FITNESS - 736.9 745.7 747.0 Subway 393,888 398,402 1% 396,446 401,800 2% Streetcar 57,953 50,699 -13% 51,728 -11% 49,819 -14% TTC Bus 327,620 304,259 -7% 322,707 -1% 314,174 -4% GO Train 101,104 101,827 102,504 96,477 -5% GO Bus 17,809 20,426 15% 18,723 5% 19,676 10% Mississauga 39,007 45,937 18% 41,423 6% 41,998 8% Hamilton 23,708 19,633 -17% 17,843 -25% 18,323 -23% Brampton 18,965 16,875 18,085 18,390 -3% YRT 17,709 14,240 -20% 16,375 -8% 17,524 VIVA 8,734 10,045 10,399 19% 7,656 -12% Durham 10,504 8,800 -16% 9,095 8,571 -18% Halton 7,278 8,304 14% 7,980 6,468 TOTAL 1,015,544 989,403 1,002,910 993,219 -2% Top 20 Genomes Mean Std.Dev 1% -13% 6% -3% 2% 0% 11% 14% 10% 8% -23% 3% 5% 13% -17% 16% 4% 19% 15% -2%

Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM) Top 3 Genomes Parameter 1 2 3 Congestion Perception 0.5000 Wait Perception 1.4857 1.4875 Walk Perception 1.0000 GO Train Headway Fraction 0.2259 0.2000 0.3130 GO Train Boarding Penalty 4.9164 5.4343 GO Bus Boarding Penalty 8.2664 10.0000 Streetcar (XROW) BP 4.0652 4.2155 Streetcar BP 6.5439 5.8591 6.6208 TTC Bus BP 3.1117 2.5740 2.9209 YRT (non-Viva) BP 7.0268 5.1296 Viva BP 0.0000 4.1100 Brampton (incl. Zum) BP 8.2255 7.3371 7.2297 Mississauga BP 1.9727 2.9961 Durham BP 4.6496 4.4466 5.4410 Halton BP 0.6300 1.5318 6.2741 Hamilton BP 6.1490 9.0084 Top 20 Genomes Mean Std.Dev 0.4231 13% 1.5985 12% 1.0204 4% 0.2162 5.9662 20% 8.9054 4.5053 6.5207 9% 2.7838 8% 6.9455 35% 2.1239 125% 5.7849 39% 2.5661 41% 4.1804 47% 4.2087 78% 9.1102 14% ← Normalized

Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM) SC XROW BP vs. SC BP VIVA BP vs YRT BP

Transit assignment: Preliminary results (AM) ZUM BP vs Brampton BP Walk Time Perception vs. Wait Time Perception

2014-2015 Workplan Draft Workplan for submission to Steering Committee

Brainstorming (based on Scoping from Terms of reference) Continue work on GTAModel V4 Future year base networks V4 model improvements and extensions Active transportation modelling Infrastructure for sharing common modelling data Fare-based transit assignment HOV lane modelling XTMF / TMG Toolbox / GTAModel V4 training sessions Transit speed updating Ongoing software development Review/analysis of VDFs & capacity Left turn delays Freight modelling

Thank You! Next Meeting: Wednesday, May 7, 2014

PHF = 0.55 PHF = 0.55

PHF = 0.45 PHF = 0.45

PHF = 0.38