Global Comparative Politics (2) Luca Verzichelli University of Siena Master Program Public and Cultural Diplomacy (LM-81)

From the end of history to another century of democratic crises? Fukuyama (1993): the liberal world as the only possible field of democratic history Return to the reality: dysfunctional capitalism Identity as a hole in liberalism (Fukuyama 2006) Radicalism and immigration: old problems. Totally different magnitude of change A new phase of democratic decline?

Areas of democracy Geo-political areas and contagion effects Geo-cultural areas and cultural explanations of trends - Decolonization - Religious and cultural influences - Ideological path dependencies Economic explanations A random distribution?

V-Dem Varieties of democracy A new tool to measure democracy - multidimensional and disaggregated dataset reflecting the complexity of the concept of democracy as a system of values - Dimensions of democracy: electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, egalitarian, majoritarian and consensual, and collects data to measure these principles.  www.v-dem.net

A new decline of democracy? Three sources of doubt about democracy (Plattner 2015) 1) the growing sense that the advanced democracies are in trouble in terms of their economic and political performance; 2) the new self-confidence and seeming vitality of some authoritarian countries; 3) The shifting geopolitical balance between the democracies and their rivals. Several suggestions and indicators The reconsolidation of non democratic cultures The insurgence of predatory states Democratic meltdown in many pluralistic regimes Failure of the process of democratization Concern but no obsession: a myth of democratic recession (Levitsky and Way 2015) No strong quantitative evidence of democratic failure Grey areas more than an anti-democratic backlash Democratic resilience in the face of a darkening geopolitical landscape

From the measure of democracy to the measure of Good Governance Democratic accountability is not a sufficient condition to assure democratic stability. The notion of (democratic) governance capacity entails different dimensions. For instance: - Voice (citizen participation, independent media …) - Limitation to political violence (effective rules, effective control …) - Government effectiveness on territory and control over corruption - Regulatory power to avoid “market-unfriendly” policies - Rule of law (Perceptions of crime, effective judiciary, enforceable contracts) This lead to another compound concept: democratic rule of law Several attempts of measuring good governance by GOs. Example: the World Bank (http:://info.worldbank.org/governance/

Norris (2012) Democratic Stability and Economic Prosperity A study combining the indicators of democratic performance and quality of governance From the “Regime effect theory” to a new typology Requisites of bureaucratic good governance (meritocratic recruitment, adequate hierarchical scale, standard procedures etc.) Measures of democracy (FH+other) and Measures of State capacity (ICRG Indicator of Quality of Governance)

Democratic governance 2008 Observation of the contrast between the index of liberal democracy (FH) and the Quality of Governance index (ICRG). Curvilinear relation, suggesting to have a look to some «outliers»

Bureaucratic democracies: Chile Not all the regimes falling into the 2nd quadrant are long-established “Western” democracies; a diverse range of emerging economies and third wave democracies from different world regions are also located here, including Namibia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Costa Rica, Botswana, South Korea, and Taiwan. Some are democracies with persisting elements of pre-democratic bureaucracies. Contemporary Chile was probably exemplifying this type of state. However, it ranks well now not just in democracy and human rights, but also on most of the indicators of governance

Patronage Democracies: Ghana During the third wave era, processes of representative democracy and the state’s governance capacity have commonly achieved far less balanced development. Some of the starkest disjunctions today come from countries scattered in the bottom-right quadrant, such as South Africa, El Salvador, and Ghana, which have experienced substantial gains in competitive elections and representative democracy in recent years Yet where the state continues to lack the capacity and resources to manage the delivery of many basic goods and services, such as schooling, health clinics, and economic growth The story of Ghana illustrates this category most clearly

Patronage Autocracies: Somalia The patronage autocracies located in the bottom-left corner vary a great deal, but typically include many of the world’s poorest developing countries and so-called failed states (Haiti, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan) lacking effective governance. The most problematic cases are those where enduring, deep-rooted, ethnic conflict has eroded the authority and capacity of the central authorities to maintain social order and rule of law, the most basic functions of the state, as well as to manage the economy so as to alleviate poverty, disease, and malnutrition. Somalia exemplifies these cases: a country without an effective central government since President Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991.

Bureaucratic Autocracies: Singapore few cases of bureaucratic autocracy are evident today, although China exemplifies this type of regime. Governance is rated relatively highly in some bureaucratic autocracies, (Brunei, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia …), which continue to be ruled by absolute monarchies. Other cases are hybrid regimes. Singapore illustrates this category, as a one-party autocracy where many fundamental human rights are restricted, yet where governance works well, judged by relatively clean and efficient public services supported by substantial economic growth

A matter of dynamics A note of warning: These regimes are still «mobile» and some of them present a great deal of discontinuity Look to the collapse of governance in Somalia (beginning of the XXI century)… … or the recent improvement of quality of governance in Chile However, cases of continuity of «mixed» regimes are evident (Singapore)

The study of current democracic regimes Let us go back to the handbook (Powell at al. 2014 chapters 3-7) In order to have a full Political Culture and Political Socialization Interest Articulation Interest Aggregation and Political Parties Government and Policymaking Public Policy Current challenges

After all, we talk about political systems

Readings for the next presentations Plattner (2015), Is Democracy in Decline? in Journal of democracy + Levitsky & Way (2015), The Myth of Democratic recession, in Journal of democracy Tormey (2015) The end of representative democracy, Chapter 6: Democracy after representation Warren (2003), a second transformation of democracy in Cain, Dalton & Scarrow (eds.) democracy transformed? Expanding political opportunities in advanced democracies

Plattner (2015), Levitsky & Way (2015) Three sources of doubt about democracy (Plattner 2015) 1) the growing sense that the advanced democracies are in trouble in terms of their economic and political performance; 2) the new self-confidence and seeming vitality of some authoritarian countries; 3) The shifting geopolitical balance between the democracies and their rivals. Several suggestions and indicators The reconsolidation of non democratic cultures The insurgence of predatory states Democratic meltdown in many pluralistic regimes Failure of the process of democratization Concern but no obsession: a myth of democratic recession (Levitsky and Way 2015) No strong quantitative evidence of democratic failure Grey areas more than an anti-democratic backlash Democratic resilience in the face of a darkening geopolitical landscape

Tormey (2015) From the pillars of representative democracies: state nations, emergence of a civil society, regular and competitive election (political rights), freedoms (civil rights) … … to a number of key changes Complex territorialities Complex sovereignities Complex (non/post) identities Effects: - loss of the sense of soverignity - loss of the aura of politicians - loss of the sense of being represented - overall loss of power

Tormey (2015) [2] From representation to resonance - creating impetus - creating resonance - creating clamour - creating turbulence Collision of vertical and horizontal forces Post- representative democracy?

Warren (2003 ) Question: are we entitled to interpret all the changes in the current democracies as a «second trasformation of democracy» leading to a «third historical form»? Other implicit questions Are we able to shape a better democracy Is that «better model» sustainable?

Warren (2003) [2] How can we assess a new transformation? Equal and effective participation in making views circulated Voting equality Equal opportunity among new groups about gaining understanding Equal chances to control the agenda Inclusion of all adults

Warren (2003) [3] Dimension of change Means of participation (Voting, Persuasion) Scope of participation Trade-offs among dimensions of democracy Overall: cautious optimism. A new historical pattern of democracy will be possibile, given a number of conditions