outer dynamics Robin Matthews Professor of International Business

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Presentation transcript:

outer dynamics Robin Matthews Professor of International Business Kingston University Business School London JM Keynes Professor of Management RANEPA Moscow Further papers by robin Matthews can be found at http://robindcmatthews.com http://www.tcib.org.uk/about.html. Also http://kpp-russia.ru and http://www.russtrategy.ru. http://kingston.ac.uk/CIPB.php robindcmatthews

Global situation Postwar recovery 1945 – 70 Stagflation 1970 -1980 Keynesian policies Stagflation 1970 -1980 Monetarism and supply side economics 1980 – 2007 2008- 2017

Meta Model robindcmatthews

GLOBAL POSITIVE FEEDBACKS Securitization GLOBAL POSITIVE FEEDBACKS 1980 – 2006 (circa)

17/05/2018 http://www.robindcmatthews.com

(0) P grammar OD ID PAYOFFS (P) INNER (ID) DYNAMICS ATTRACTOR grammar PAYOFFS (P) P P (0) OODOO I OD ID INNER (ID) DYNAMICS OUTER (OD) DYNAMICS 17/05/2018 http://www.robindcmatthews.com

robindcmatthews

Haldane (2009) robindcmatthews

Haldane (2009) robindcmatthews

Haldane (2009) robindcmatthews

The Crisis 2007 – 20012 The financial tower of Babel Project Management October 2014 part 3 The Crisis 2007 – 20012 The financial tower of Babel risis robindcmatthews

The financial tower of Babel: 21ST century CDO’s CDC’s CDW’S SWF’S SPV’’s SPE’s CONDUITS IPO’s PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS HEDGE FUNDS DERIVATIVES/OPTIONS SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM REGULATED BANKING SYSTEM CORPORATE BONDS GOVERNMENT BONDS LIQUID ASSETS CASH unregulated regulated

Causes of crises Low interest rates Savings glut Financial innovation Moral hazard None of the above All of the above Samudaya (the second noble truth: thirst)

Causes of the crisis? Greed Low interest rates Savings glut Financial innovation Moral hazard Greed

Source rge monitor Exposure to Greek debt robindcmatthews

Long term bond yields july 2011 Source rge monitor robindcmatthews Long term bond yields july 2011 Source rge monitor