Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration Models and exercises Copy folder “Hands-on Exercises” with the model templates to your computer

Projecting levels of mortality Overview

Projecting levels of mortality Mortality change (and fertility change) are processes where new behavior is gradually being adopted by people. It is similar to the processes of a new product penetrating a market. In other words: A diffusion process. Diffusion processes are often modeled by a logistic function.

Projecting levels of mortality

Projecting levels of mortality K=90

Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

UNPD_MorModel.xlsm 1. Enter description 2. Enter your data 2. Select a model for each sex

UNPD_MorModel.xlsm

UNPD_MorModel.xlsm

Projecting level of mortality II: US Census Bureau Model The model in spreadsheet E0LGST.xls interpolates and extrapolates life expectancies at birth, by sex. The program fits a logistic function to 2 to 17 life expectancies at birth, given the upper and lower asymptotes.

E0LGST.xls Input data for E0LGST.xls Table number [“Table 123”] Country name and Year [“Poplandia: 1960 and 1980”] Lower asymptote [leave default] Upper asymptote [leave default] 2-17 data points of observed life expectancy Dates for life expectancy [Decimal years: 1960.5 for midyear] Values for male, female life expectancy Sex ratio at birth [male births per female births] Start year for listing results Sources of input data

E0LGST.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter observed life expectancies 3. Enter parameter 4. Retrieve projection (Automatic update)

E0LGST.xls

E0LGST.xls

Hands-on exercise: Mortality Make yourself familiar with the Excel templates E0LGST.xls [USBC] UNPD_MorModel.xls/UNPD_MorModel.xlsm [UNPD] Prepare a projection using a target level of life expectancy or a typical rate of change. Validity check I: Sex-differentials in e0

Hands-on exercise: Mortality Validity check II: Explore ways to ensure that the projected trends are compatible with past trends.

Projecting levels of fertility Overview

Projecting levels of fertility I: United Nation Model Applies a similar model as for mortality. Not the level itself, but the rates of changes are modeled Incorporates the observation that during the demographic transition, fertility first changed slowly, then accelerated and finally decelerated

UNPD_FerModel.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter data 3. Select a model

UNPD_FerModel.xls

Projecting level of fertility II: US Census Bureau Model The model in spreadsheet TFRLGSTNew.xls interpolates and extrapolates life expectancies at birth, by sex. The program fits a logistic function to 2 to 17 life expectancies at birth, given the upper and lower asymptotes.

TFRLGSTNew.xls Input data for TFRLGSTNew.xls Table number [“Table 123”] Country name and Year [“Poplandia: 1960 and 1980”] Lower asymptote [leave default] Upper asymptote [leave default] 2-17 data points of observed TFR Reference dates for TFR [Decimal years: 1960.5 for midyear] Values for TFR Start year for listing results Sources of input data

TFRLGSTNew.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter observed TFR 3. Enter parameter 4. Retrieve projection (Automatic update)

TFRLGST.xls

TFRLGSTNew.xls

Hands-on exercise: Fertility Make yourself familiar with the Excel templates TFRLGSTNew.xls [USBC] UNPD_FerModel.xls/UNPD_FerModel.xlsm [UNPD] Prepare a projection using a target level of Total Fertility or a typical rate of change. Validity check I: Explore ways to ensure that the projected trends are compatible with past trends.

Excursion: Test data Spectrum comes with a complete database of national estimates and projections for all countries (WPP2010). The data are formatted into time series for single years, and into single years of age. How to obtain the data?

Spectrum: Step 1

Spectrum: Step 1

Spectrum: Step 1

Spectrum: Step 1

Spectrum: Step 1

Spectrum: Step 1

Spectrum: Step 1

Spectrum: Step 1 Copy to clipboard Paste into Excel Transpose, if necessary