How may bike-sharing choice be affected by air pollution How may bike-sharing choice be affected by air pollution? A seasonal analysis in Taiyuan, China - ETC 2016 Barcelona - Weibo Li & Maria Kamargianni Energy Institute, University College London

Objectives Study bike-sharing choice behaviour in a developing country Incorporate seasonality influence on the factors affecting choice behaviour

Background Urban mobility challenges in developing countries Car ownership Congestion & Air pollution Role of bike-sharing Avoid parking troubles with private bikes Connection to public transport Travel time and cost reduction Open opportunities for more social and leisure purposes

Background Bike-sharing in developing countries Plenty of schemes Lack of research: Mode choice behaviour Impact of air pollution

Case Study: Taiyuan Taiyuan

Case Study: Taiyuan The most popular bike-sharing -used 0.45 billion times in total -highest daily demand 0.57 million -average daily demand 0.4 million -a bike used 10.24 times per day *data from 09/2012 to 06/2016* Severe & seasonal air pollution

Survey Design RP SP Questionnaire Personal socio-economic characteristics Household socio-economic characteristics Trip dairy Attitudes and perceptions Retrospective survey Stated preference experiment RP SP

Data Collection Pilot survey in January 2015 Summer data collection 2015: 15000 paper questionnaires distributed, 9499 individuals provided valid data Winter data collection 2016: 492 individuals provided valid data Air pollution data Weather condition data

Modelling Framework Air pollution & weather conditions Mode attributes Trip characteristics Socio-economic characteristics Utilities of modes Choice set: car driver, car passenger, bus, electric bike, bike, bike share, walk, taxi Availability constraints Two multinomial logit models RP data from the same 492 individuals in summer (1797 trips) & winter (1722 trips)

Results-bike sharing part   Summer Winter Coefficient t-stat Significance - 9.06 - 2.57 95% 14.50 7.97 99% Work-bike share 0.40 1.02 - 1.05 2.37 Education-bike share 1.77 4.67 0.67 1.01 Temperature-bike share 0.13 4.02 0.04 1.07 Air pollution-bike share 0.017 2.20 - 0.058 - 6.71 Travel time-bike share - 0.07 - 4.81 - 0.24 - 7.42 Male-bike share - 0.66 - 0.94 0.73 1.18 Age (lower)-bike share - 0.51 - 0.67 0.41 0.65 Income (lower)-bike share - 1.11 - 0.60 0.32 0.34

Results Severe air pollution can significantly discourage the usage of bike-sharing and other active transport modes. Bike-sharing users who go to work have more inelastic demand towards adverse air quality and temperature conditions than those going to education. Negative willingness to pay exists but only in summer with better natural environment conditions and only on bus and taxi which have faster mobility than bike-sharing. Females, elderly and wealthier people are more sensitive to worse air quality and lower temperature.

Policy Implications When there are relatively high levels of air pollution, improving air quality can effectively encourage the take up of active transport including bike-sharing. Besides keeping the price at low level specific for short distance trips, measures can be taken to enhance bike-sharing mobility for longer distance trips (e.g. introducing electric bikes).

Policy Implications Improve bike-sharing service standards in areas that have high workplace densities. Focus on changing young people’s transport mode choice behaviour. Design bespoke policies to secure bike-sharing as the primary transport choice for lower income groups.

Future Research Combining SP with RP data Taste heterogeneity, latent variables etc. Simulation to estimate the effects of different policy pathways

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