Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Modelling the Impact of Mass Protests of 2010s on Political Change  (by using Data Envelopment and Social Network Analysis) Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 www.hse.ru

Research goal and tasks To evaluate the impact of mass protests of 2010s on socio-political change along with other drivers of change Describe possible trajectories of political change Identify (contra-) tendencies of main drivers of change Describe models of protest publics’ impact on political change Test the proposed models by statistical analysis. Evaluate whether the proposed models match the empirical results To define reasons for positive and negative change under impact of mass protests in 2010s photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Theoretical framework photo photo © Anufriev A., Zaytsev D. G. “Protest Publics” in Egypt and Turkey from 2011 Till Present Days: Assessment of Impact on Political Changes // Comparative Politics (Russia). 2016. Vol. 7. No. 2(23). P. 34-47 Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Parameters and Indicators (1) Situational change Source Number of changes of ruling head of the state in the period Official Election Results Number of changes of Ruling Party in the period Number of changes of Government Coalitions Open Sources Number of Constitutions adopted in the period % of respondents, who support Government/President Existing polls of national agencies photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Parameters and Indicators (2) Institutional change Source Index of Political Rights Freedom House - Freedom in the World Index of Civil Liberties Laws and regulations that influence media content. Legal environment Freedom House - Freedom of the Press Political pressures and controls on media content. Political environment Economic influences over media content. Economic environment POLITY2 Revised Combined Polity Score Polity IV Electoral process and pluralism Economist Democracy Index Functioning of government Political participation Political culture Civil liberties The Economist Intelligence Unit’s index of democracy photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Parameters and Indicators (3) Institutional change Source State Fragility Index Center of Systemic Peace State Failure Policy change The level of corruption Corruption Perception Index Voice and Accountability Worldwide Governance Indicators Rule of Law Regulatory Quality Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Government Effectiveness Control of Corruption photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Parameters and Indicators (4) Economic factors Source GDP per capita (current US$) The World Bank GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) GDP per capita growth (annual %) The level of economic inequality (Gini Index) Unemployment Inflation, consumer prices photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

European Social Survey / Afrobarometer / Arabbarometer Parameters and Indicators (5) Cultural & Social factors Source The prevalence of material / post-modern values: Materialist & Post-materialist World Value Survey / European Social Survey / Afrobarometer / Arabbarometer Religious denomination Emancipative values Satisfaction with your life Most people can be trusted photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Parameters and Indicators (6) Political & Demographical factors Source Interest in politics World Value Survey / European Social Survey / Afrobarometer / Arabbarometer Income equality Confidence: Police; Justice System/Courts; Political Parties; Parliament How democratically is country being governed today Human Development Indicator United Nations Development Program Population growth/decline The World Bank Life expectancy at birth Total fertility rate Percentage of total population by broad age groups United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Adult literacy rate Protest as a Factor Significance of protests Factiva photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

1. Significant mass protests 2. Significant political change Case selection Trajectories of Political Change Brazil China Egypt France Greece Iceland India Italy Morocco Russia SAR Spain Syria Tunisia Turkey UK Ukraine USA 1. Significant mass protests 2. Significant political change 3. Political regime diversity representation 4. Economy & Culture & Geography diversity representation photo photo © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Trajectories of Political Change Situational Change Frequent elite change beyond the normal electoral cycle (Greece, Italy, Egypt, Tunisia, Ukraine) vs irremovability of political elites (China, Russia, Turkey, Syria, SAR) Increase of state failure problems (Syria, Ukraine, Turkey, Egypt, SAR, China), vs. (India, Russia) Widening of political spectrum, emergence of new political parties (Spain, Italy, Greece, India) Policy Change Raising public concerns about corruption and inequality Demands for economy and social policies change Institutional Change Decrease in freedom of the press, vs. (Tunisia, Italy) Democratization (Tunisia, Morocco) vs increase of autocracy (Syria, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine) photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

(Contra-) Tendencies of main drivers of change Economy Decline of economy, vs. (Iceland, Morocco, UK, USA) Unemployment, economic inequality Culture Raising impotence of secular/traditional materialist/postmaterialist, emancipative values - polarization of secular post-materialists vs traditional materialists Politics Decrease of confidence to traditional political institutions, vs. (Tunisia, UK); Decrease of public participation in traditional structures (trade-unions, NGOs, political parties) Raising unsatisfaction with democracy, vs. (Tunisia, Egypt) Society Life dissatisfaction, vs. (India, Morocco, Tunisia) Decrease in social trust, vs. (Tunisia, China) photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Models of protest publics’ impact on political change (assumption) “Triggers” of democratic development in hybrid regimes “Challengers” of the status-quo in embedded democracies USA France Iceland Tunisia Morocco Egypt Spain Brazil India Russia Turkey China UNDER QUESTION: 13. UK 14. Syria 15. Ukraine 16. Greece 17. SAR  18. Italy Spain Brazil India “Watchdogs” raising concerns about the quality of democracy in consolidated democracies “Democratic innovators” in authoritarian environments © Anufriev A., Zaytsev D. G. “Protest Publics” in Egypt and Turkey from 2011 Till Present Days: Assessment of Impact on Political Changes // Comparative Politics (Russia). 2016. Vol. 7. No. 2(23). P. 34-47 Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Models of protest publics’ impact on political change (cluster analysis, 56 parameters, period 2) photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Models of protest publics’ impact on political change (cluster analysis results) UK USA Iceland France Tunisia Morocco Egypt Ukraine Spain Italy Greece Russia China Turkey Brazil SAR (South Africa) “Challengers” of the status-quo in embedded democracies “Triggers” of democratic development in hybrid regimes “Watchdogs” raising concerns about the quality of democracy in consolidated democracies “Democratic innovators” in authoritarian environments India Syria ‘Radicalizing activists’ in state failure situation Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (Scale) Period 1 Period 2 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

Change period 1 to period 2 Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA) MI Change period 1 to period 2 brazil 1,018051 Worsening china 0,972367 Improved egypt 0,847695 france 1,721665 greece 1,253178 iceland 1,160845 india 1,222792 morocco 0,881748 russia 1,010394 sar 1,027574 spain 0,608581 tunisia 0,774684 turkey 0,742739 ukraine 1,943386 uk 0,984153 usa 0,854234 italy 1,355295 Standard Malmquist Index: Outputs: Quality of Governance - 6 indices of World Bank Inputs: Socio-Economic & Cultural Conditions & Protests = 25 parameters © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA) Period 1 Period 2 brazil 1 china 0,855415 0,99602 egypt france greece 0,853324 iceland india morocco russia 0,695511 0,995821 sar spain 0,983317 tunisia turkey 0,977616 ukraine 0,972185 uk usa 0,989262 italy 0,991783 Basic Radial Models (Envelopment Forms): Outputs: Quality of Governance - 6 indices of World Bank Inputs: Socio-Economic & Cultural Conditions & Protests = 6 parameters: gdp_growth_% values_emanc_equality Hdi population_25-49_per100 population_50+_per100% significance of protests © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, improvements, period 1) gdp_growth_% values_emanc_equality hdi population_25-49_per100% population_50+_per100% significance of protests brazil 16.49 to 16.49 67 to 67 0.74 to 0.74 37.8 to 37.8 19.5 to 19.5 407 to 407 china 20.1 to 13.2400354362 52 to 52 0.7 to 0.7 40.4 to 34.1459510634 24.5 to 19.9883028262 7268 to 7268 egypt 13.09 to 13.09 25 to 25 0.68 to 0.68 32.6 to 32.6 15.2 to 15.2 1242 to 1242 france 11.46 to 11.46 77.9 to 77.9 0.88 to 0.88 32.9 to 32.9 36.4 to 36.4 4177 to 4177 greece 4.4 to 4.4 84.5 to 84.5 0.87 to 0.87 37 to 37 37.3 to 37.3 4027 to 4027 iceland 6.55 to 6.55 69.5 to 69.5 0.89 to 0.89 34.9 to 34.9 29.5 to 29.5 197 to 197 india 18.75 to 18.75 42 to 42 0.59 to 0.59 34 to 34 16.1 to 16.1 15729 to 15729 morocco 12.52 to 12.52 49 to 49 0.61 to 0.61 35 to 35 17.5 to 17.5 336 to 336 russia 14.46 to 12.2888657845 51 to 51 0.78 to 0.7782986767 37.2 to 32.7474480151 33 to 25.6196597353 4655 to 2684.5330812854 sar 11.52 to 11.52 59 to 59 0.64 to 0.64 33.9 to 33.9 14.7 to 14.7 1572 to 1572 spain 9.55 to 9.55 78 to 78 40.3 to 40.3 1704 to 1704 tunisia 12.46 to 12.46 58 to 58 0.71 to 0.71 37.6 to 37.6 20.4 to 20.4 95 to 95 turkey 17.57 to 11.2294080019 0.74 to 0.7136328873 36.5 to 33.5605852979 19.2 to 19.2 1507 to 1507 ukraine 14.61 to 10.3003310852 53 to 53 0.73 to 0.73 36.9 to 34.5668914776 35.5 to 21.7719803801 1636 to 431.0091968118 uk 11.12 to 11.12 75.4 to 75.4 0.9 to 0.9 34.8 to 34.8 34.2 to 34.2 802 to 802 usa 11.68 to 10.8955558154 72 to 72 0.91 to 0.8458372983 34.2 to 33.2553614575 32.1 to 32.1 10920 to 3217.9761061938 italy 11.37 to 8.4276215238 68 to 68 35.98 to 34.1972723146 40.12 to 30.134561831 1306 to 1306 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, improvements, period 2) gdp_growth_% values_emanc_equality hdi population_25-49_per100% population_50+_per100% significance of protests brazil 5.33 to 5.33 70 to 70 0.76 to 0.76 38 to 38 22.5 to 22.5 1512 to 1512 china 16.37 to 12.8967303315 53 to 53 0.73 to 0.73 41.2 to 34.7956271996 28.2 to 24.4030851375 7985 to 7985 egypt 12 to 12 31 to 31 0.69 to 0.69 33.9 to 33.9 15.7 to 15.7 3660 to 3660 france 10.8 to 10.8 77.9 to 77.9 0.89 to 0.89 31.7 to 31.7 38.3 to 38.3 4204 to 4204 greece 10.41 to 10.41 87.4 to 77.559403749 0.87 to 0.87 34.8 to 33.9664134571 40.4 to 33.0989161566 2727 to 934.645063159 iceland 12.88 to 12.88 82.7 to 82.7 0.9 to 0.9 33.2 to 33.2 32.1 to 32.1 78 to 78 india 16.27 to 16.27 43 to 43 0.61 to 0.61 35.1 to 35.1 17.7 to 17.7 33566 to 33566 morocco 13.11 to 13.11 47 to 47 0.63 to 0.63 35.4 to 35.4 19.7 to 19.7 265 to 265 russia 6.07 to 6.07 0.8 to 0.7067097805 37.4 to 36.0472325726 35.2 to 24.7757309992 7690 to 3489.7102577476 sar 9.61 to 9.61 55 to 55 0.67 to 0.67 35.6 to 35.6 15.8 to 15.8 2712 to 2712 spain 13.35 to 12.5170429819 75 to 75 0.88 to 0.8666345345 36.9 to 33.7519727048 38.8 to 30.0056505041 1015 to 1015 tunisia 9.98 to 9.98 62 to 62 0.72 to 0.72 22.7 to 22.7 516 to 516 turkey 12.46 to 12.46 36.7 to 36.7 21 to 21 3633 to 3633 ukraine 0.46 to 0.46 57 to 57 0.75 to 0.75 37.1 to 37.1 4288 to 4288 uk 11.4 to 11.4 75.8 to 75.8 0.91 to 0.91 33.6 to 33.6 36.2 to 36.2 1131 to 1131 usa 11.79 to 11.79 76 to 76 0.92 to 0.92 32.7 to 32.7 34.7 to 34.7 12528 to 12528 italy 10.71 to 10.71 81 to 81 33.4 to 33.4 43.3 to 43.3 946 to 946 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, referents/peer countries) Period 1 Period 2 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Political change under the impact of mass protests in 2010s (DEA, referents/peer countries) Period 1 Period 2 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

© Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva Work in progress Why 18? To increase the number of cases to all countries, where protests happened during the 2000s: ‘color revolutions’, ‘anti-austerity movement’, ‘Arab Spring’, ‘Occupy’; and other countries, where there were no any protests, as a control group Why 56? To deal with Q&G dataset to choose more relevant parameters by using statistical methods to choose What about original theory? To add more parameters about protests, protest publics and actors of change (as supposed by original theoretical model) DEA? Use non-parametric statistical analysis on order to test the protest publics’ input weight and compare with other factors and actors of change SNR? Perform network analysis to find reference country photo photo Higher School of Economics , Moscow, 2017 © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva © Dmitry Zaytsev, Margarita Erofeeva

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