지구 기후 변화 지구 온난화 온실가스 쿄토 의정서 Last update: 20170605

Meet the Globe Farewell Vanishing Glaciers -Global Warming Anchorage Alaska Glacier Melting An Incovenient Truth Everest's Melting Glaciers

지표면 평균 온도 추세 By NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24363898

대한민국

온실효과 25+5=30 70 100 Solar Constant = 1366W/sq meter. 1366/4 = 342 Watts/m2.(pi*R^2/4*piR^2) It fluctuates by about 6.9% during a year. 70 49

과거 40만년간의 CO2 농도와 온도

Historical carbon dioxide record from the Siple Station ice core Friedli, H., H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1986. Ice core record of 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 in the past two centuries. Nature 324:237-38.

Past 60,000 years

최근의 변화

자연적인가 인위적인가? Experiments using computer models confirm the importance of human-produced emissions in the temperature trends of recent decades. This graphic depicts global average temperature since 1890 as reproduced by the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model. The blue line summarizes simulations performed using only natural influences on climate (volcanoes and solar variations). The red line, from a set of simulations that includes sulfate aerosol pollution and greenhouse gases, is much closer to the observed record (black line). The blue and red shading shows the range of results (the model uncertainty) for each group of simulations, or ensemble. (Illustration courtesy Gerald Meehl, NCAR)

대기중 CO2 농도 변화-Mauna Loa, Hawaii +2.0 ppm/yr +1.5 ppm/yr +1.0 ppm/yr http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

현재의 CO2 대기중 농도 변화 2.0 ppm/yr http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Global carbon dioxide emissions from human activities 1800–2007

현재와 미래의 대기 중 이산화탄소 농도

Methane Concentration

Infra Red Absorption

주요 온실가스

지난 천년 기온과 후 100년 예상

지구 기온 변화

1750년 대비 2000년 기후에 미치는 인위적 및 자연적 요소

The Carbon Cycle

Human Perturbation CO2 sources The World's Carbon Reservoirs Reservoir Size (Gt C) Atmosphere 750 Forests 610 Soils 1580 Surface ocean 1020 Deep ocean 38,100 Fossil fuels     Coal 4,000     Oil 500     Natural gas Total fossil fuel 5,000 Human Perturbations to the Global Carbon Budget CO2 sources Flux (Gt C/yr) Fossil fuel combustion and cement production 5.5 ± 0.5 Tropical deforestation 1.6 ± 1.0 Total anthropogenic emissions 7.1 ± 1.1 CO2sinks Storage in the atmosphere 3.3 ± 0.2 Uptake by the ocean 2.0 ± 0.8 Northern hemisphere forest regrowth 0.5 ± 0.5 Other terrestrial sinks (CO2 fertilization, nitrogen fertilization, climatic effects) 1.3 ± 1.5 Source: Climate Change 1995, published by the IPCC

기후 변화 1900년 대비 2000년 강수량 1976년대비 2000년 기온

World's oceans warmest on record the summer of 2009 NOAA These globes show surface temperature anomalies for August. Temperature is compared to the average global temperature for Augusts from 1961-1990.

지난 300년간의 해수면 변화 현재: 3.0 mm/yr 0.5 mm/yr from Greenland

기상이변에 의한 전세계적 비용

냉각 요소

기후 변화의 잠재적 영향

산림

물 부족

Dear Mr. President: No challenge we face is more momentous than the threat of global climate change. The current provisions of the Kyoto Protocol are a matter of legitimate debate. But the situation is becoming urgent, and it is time for consensus and action. There are many strategies for curbing greenhouse-gas emissions without slowing economic growth. In fact, the spread of advanced, cleaner technology is more of an economic opportunity than a peril. We urge you to develop a plan to reduce U.S. production of greenhouse gases. The future of our children and their children depends on the resolve that you and other world leaders show. Respectfully, Jimmy Carter, Mikhail Gorbachev, John Glenn, Walter Cronkite, George Soros, J. Craig Venter, Jane Goodall, Edward O. Wilson, Harrison Ford, Stephen Hawking

Kyoto 2002

Kyoto 2010

Paris climate accord 2015 The aim of the convention is described in Article 2, "enhancing the implementation" of the UNFCCC through: (a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; (b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. Countries furthermore aim to reach "global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible". The Paris deal is the world's first comprehensive climate agreement.