By Michael Roberts Some comments by José Tapia The Long Depression By Michael Roberts Some comments by José Tapia

My global evaluation of The Great Depression An important contribution to social knowledge, particularly to the analysis of economic crises in capitalism A large compendium of valuable information on the Great Recession of the late 2000s and the following period of sluggish economic growth that Michael Roberts calls “the Long Depression”. A major contribution to criticism of mainstream economics in all their schools (neoclassical, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian, Austrian …) A significant contribution to the critique of capitalism.

My criticism of the book (1) Depression as a period in which a crisis is followed by a partial recovery of capital accumulation, so that the long-term trend of economic growth is not recovered. A recession has the shape of a V, while a depression is rather like a square root sign, or perhaps as W when it takes the form of a double dip recession. Michael Roberts defends this typology by mentioning only three depressions (late 19th century, 1930s, after 2008) Three cases of something do not provide much basis for theorizing. More solid idea, that Roberts suggests: sometimes economic crises do not fulfill sufficiently their role of rising profitability, then the recovery is weak. What is the concrete relation between the concepts of economic crisis, recession and recession? This is in my view particularly important because left-wing criticism of capitalism often theorize that economic crises and recessions are different entities. Recession Depression

My criticism of the book (2) Particularly unconvincing: the views in chapter 12, “Cycles within cycles” Roberts “observes” in capitalism a number of cyclical phenomena, including a 4-year inventory cycle (Kitchin), an 8-10 year business cycle of expansion-recession (Juglar), a 18-year housing cycle (Kuznets) and a long 50- or 60-year wave or cycle (Kondratiev). To that Roberts adds a 16- to 18-year cycle of profitability, and a stock market cycle of similar periodicity One Juglar would comprise three Kitchin, one Kuznets would comprise two Juglars, one Kondratiev would comprise so many Juglars etc.

Harmonia Mundi Economics

Actually, a number of numerical variables go up and down in which we could call business cycle or construction cycle or inventory cycle, or stock-market cycle However, when these phenomena are studied in concrete, the basic characteristics is that they are irregular.

Business cycle duration 1960-2009 ================================================================== Lower 95% Upper 95% CL for Mean CL for Mean Mean N ======================================= 3.8 9.0 6.4 8 ======================================= Business cycle duration 1873-2009 ================================================================== Lower 95% Upper 95% CL for Mean CL for Mean Mean N ====================================== 3.9 5.6 4.8 29 =======================================

K-Waves ================================================================== Lower 95% Upper 95% CL for Mean CL for Mean Mean N 14.7 74.6 44.7 3 ================================================================== K Waves Chronology id start end Duration =============================== 1 1873 1929 56 2 1929 1975 46 3 1975 2007 32

A period of 69 years neatly divided in four similar period of bull market or stock market, about 15-year each

Five rather than four periods

Michael Roberts maintains that there was a depression lasting from the early 1870s to the early 1890s GDP growth (%) 1850-70 1870-90 42 17 France 57 50 UK 61 59 Germany ? <0 Russia * According to these data it seems as if the depression of the 1870s-1880s had been just a French phenomenon. * It seems to me data on GDP for these years are not very reliable

My criticism of the book (3) Michael Roberts uses repeatedly profit rates computed for national economies. The appendix of the book on computation of profit rates provides a good explanation on the various criteria that can be used to compute that rate, but says little on the major issues that computation of profit rates (particularly, what to include in the denominator as a measure of total capital). Roberts provide little information on his sources for various countries. In spite of all the former, I believe his estimates look sound, and thus my criticisms here are probably picky. Is the Long Depression ending? Roberts apparently suggests a new recession will be needed before the Long Depression ends