NWS Alaska Region: Challenges in an Era of Changing Climate Arctic Climate Science Priorities Workshop February 2-3, 2005 James Partain, Chief Gary Hufford, Regional Scientist Environmental & Scientific Services Division NOAA NWS Alaska Region

NOAA NWS Alaska Region - Overview 3 full-service Weather Forecast Offices 12 limited-service Weather Service Offices River Forecast Center Tsunami Warning Center 2 Aviation weather centers

NOAA NWS Alaska Region - Facilities

NWS Alaska Region – Climate Challenges Climate change in Alaska is WAY beyond academic: Decades-old warming at locations all across Alaska Greatly reduced extent and thickness of multi-year sea ice Later freeze-up in Fall and earlier break-up in Spring Glaciers retreating, Permafrost melting with attendant issues For us, debate over cause of warming is moot: NOAA’s weather customers are impacted on a daily basis – they are looking to us for expertise!

Climate Impacts on Service Programs in NWS Alaska Region Aviation – more frequent icing, IMC conditions; aviators in bush still operating on old assumptions Public - more frequent “high amplitude” weather episodes (e.g. mid-winter thaws, coastal storms, windstorms, heavy precip) Marine – more frequent high-impact events, esp. in areas of sea-ice retreat Wildfire - more variable regime-dependent fuel-moisture conditions

Climate Impacts on Service Programs in NWS Alaska Region (cont) Hydrology – greater variability in river volume & depth and related flooding and erosion; ice-dammed glacier lake releases Volcanic Ash – resuspension of relic ash from Katmai complex in Sept. 2003 led to redefinition of volcanic ashfall “event” Tsunami – sea-level rise may have eventual impacts

Climate Science Needs - Observations Observations form the backbone of forecasts and warnings: vertical, spatial and temporal distributions of moisture, temperature, and kinetic energy equal “weather” the need to know what’s really happening (to calibrate both our brains and our models) …which results in a heavy dependence on surface (land and marine) and space-based observations: remotely-sensed (e.g. profilers, radars, radiometers, scatterometers, GPS-moisture) and in-situ (e.g. weather observations, buoys, weather cameras).

Climate Science Needs - Models In Alaska, guidance from numerical models is especially critical for forecasts & warnings beyond 6-hours NWS atmospheric models generally do worst at the poles. Alaska in particular suffers with poor model quality due to its position within and downstream of one of the most data-sparse, yet dynamic weather regimes on the planet Observing system tests have proven the value of observations to improving our models (esp. vertical atmospheric observations, plus land/ocean observations of antecedent conditions) Improved models lead to improved and more confident services by forecasters and decision-makers

Climate Science Needs – Decision Support and Outreach/Education Decision-support assistance bridges the realms of observations, models, research, and human factors and their implications for real-world application In Alaska, help is needed by many, including those involved in transportation, subsistence activities Outreach and education are the tools by which decision-support outputs are made effective A perfect forecast or warning is entirely useless unless the customer understands its meaning and impact and can make appropriate decisions to mitigate the impacts…a horrible, yet critical lesson from the Indian Ocean catastrophe

Example: the Bering Sea Storm, Oct. 2004 One of the greatest short-term weather impacts of climate change are for coastal storms and attendant erosion Later freeze-up, less extent and thinner sea-ice, combined with loss of coastal permafrost, is a recipe for erosion from normal Fall storms Impacts magnified by greater wave size due to increased open-water fetch Customers need forecast Accuracy and Lead Time and, in this case, got it (well-assimilated observations, good model runs, good resultant diagnosis & products, and excellent response) $30B+ in damage, but no loss of life or significant injuries, and significantly more property damage was mitigated through pre-storm actions

A residence in Shishmaref – after the storm

The Shishmaref school after the storm