By Robyn Dean Christy Lewis Roofing Manufacturer By Robyn Dean Christy Lewis

History Based out of Ennis, TX Factory Plant--scratch, packaged, and labeled Shipments are made to various customers and regions

History cont. Three different types of shingles are produced, with various different colors--A,B,C Three regions--D,E,F The first company to make roofing material through advance technology and production

PROBLEM To forecast which product should be made first (for the peak months) to meet the estimated historical sales and current sales To forecast which product to produce during the low peak months to continue with sales, at the same time not go over limited storage capacity

Considering Factors Production Capacity limited Limited Storage Capacity Weather Competition and Market Trend Production cycle = 30 days Assumption= peak buying time is at the end of each month

Information Historical Data= sales and production of products over 5 years each month (93-97) 1998 Data = same as historical data Most productive product

Solving Methods Forecasting using decomposition which takes into account Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal, and Irregularity Smoothie Excel

Conclusion Product B = most popular product should be produce during the low peak months, December, January, etc. Product C and A = should be produced during the high peak months (summer)

Recommendations Product B should start the production cycle as soon as the low peak months start in order to produce enough product Same for Product A and C With this, believe that the limit storage capacity will not over fill and production capacity will be steady