Seismic assessments of transportation lifelines and buildings Engr. Michael B. BAYLON MSCE (candidate) De La Salle University Far Eastern University, Institute of Technology May 11, 2016

The Academe experience; Industry practice The Future Closing… Outline Motivation Overview Trends Innovations The Academe experience; Industry practice The Future Closing…

Motivation Source: Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (2004) Model 08 (West Valley Faults M.7.2) , as the worst case. 170,000 residential houses collapse 340,000 residential houses partly damaged 34,000 persons die 114,000 persons injured Fire breakout and burnt approximately 1,710 hectares and totally 18,000 additional persons killed  infrastructures and lifelines will also be heavily damaged.

Different Assessment of Existing Structures: Overview Different Assessment of Existing Structures: Vulnerability Assessment A vulnerability assessment is the process of identifying, quantifying, and prioritizing (or ranking) the vulnerabilities in a system… Vulnerability from the perspective of disaster management means assessing the threats from potential hazards to the population and to infrastructure..

Different Assessment of Existing Structures: Overview Different Assessment of Existing Structures: Risk Assessment Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative estimate of risk related to a well-defined situation and a recognized threat (also called hazard). Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R): the magnitude of the potential loss (L), and the probability (p) that the loss will occur.

Different Assessment of Existing Structures: Overview Different Assessment of Existing Structures: Hazard Assessment "Hazard assessment" is the process (required by law) of identifying the hazards associated with defined task, prescribing personal protective equipment and other relevant protection measures which must be employed to reduce the risk from the hazards.

Additional Investigations Overview… Existing Structure Do nothing Intensify monitoring Safe Enough? Load reduction Strengthen structure Demolish structure Additional Investigations

Classification and Structure Trends Classification and Structure Assessing existing structures classification thru routines (with ascending sophistication) Three Main Categories The order within one group of procedures must not be followed severely; neither obligatory to apply procedures of the same complexity.

Trends

Trends

Measurement-Based Assessment

Measurement-Based Assessment…

Basic Model Based Assessment

Basic Model Based Assessment…

Advanced Model Based Assessment

Advanced Model Based Assessment…

Assessment with Modified Target Reliabilities

Assessment with Modified Target Reliabilities…

Full Probability Assessment

Full Probability Assessment…

Innovations Hernandez & Pascua (2011) “Fragility Curves”

Innovations Baylon, M. B., Garciano, L. O., & Koike, T. (2012). Assessing the Performance of a Transportation Lifeline in the Philippines,. 18TH CONGRESS OF IABSE, SEOUL, Innovative Infrastructures- Toward Human Urbanism, 538-539.

Source: (Baylon & Garciano, 2012) Assessing… Assessing the Performance of a Transportation Lifeline in the Philippines,. 18TH CONGRESS OF IABSE, SEOUL, Innovative Infrastructures- Toward Human Urbanism, 538-539. Result of MCS (Unconfined, El Centro, NSCP 2001): Pf=0.000290, β=3.440799 Source: (Baylon & Garciano, 2012)

Innovations Requiso, D. A. (2013). Seismic Fragility of Transportation Lifeline Piers in the Philippines, Under Shear Failure. Requiso, A. T., Balili, A. P., & Garciano, L. E. (2013). Development of Seismic Fragility Curves for Transportation Lifeline Pier in the Philippines for Flexure.

Requiso et al…

Innovations Baylon, M. B. & Garciano, L. O., (2013). Harnessing the use of Monte Carlo Simulation in assessing LRT Line 1 pier. 1st International Conference in Technology, 1-10. Baylon, M.B. & Garciano L. O., (2013). Seismic risk assessment of heritage structure using fragility curves and net present value approach. Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Cultural Heritage and Disaster Risk Reduction. Bangkok, Thailand.

Innovations Baylon, M. B.,(2014). Assessment of LRT Line 3 using Fragility Curves,. 2nd International Conference in Technology, 1-6. Baylon, M. B.,(2015). Seismic Assessment of Bridges and a Fishport in CAMANAVA Area using Fragility Analysis,. 3rd International Conference in Technology, 1-7. Baylon, M. B.,(2015). Seismic Assessment of Transportation Lifelines in CAMANAVA Area using Fragility Curves,. 17th ASEP International Conference, 1-7.

Innovations Baylon, M. B.,(2015). Seismic Assessment of CAMANAVA transportation lifelines using fragility analysis. 10th Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering: Building an Earthquake Resilient Pacific, Sydney 1-8. Baylon, M.B. (2016). Reliability assessment of a bridge pier using interval uncertainty analysis. Master’s Thesis. De La Salle University, Manila.

Devolved undergraduate theses Academe Experience Devolved undergraduate theses 1st Semester SY2014-2015: 2 research project LRT Line 1 North Extension LRT Line 2 1st & 2nd Semesters SY2014-2015: 6 research projects Lambingan Bridge, Bangkulasi Bridge, Tullahan-Malabon Bridge, Tullahan-Ugong Bridge, Dampalit Bridge Navotas Fish Port Center LRT Line 1 South Extension

DESIGNED SEISMIC ACCEL. 2nd ASEP Student Research Competition, May 29, 2015 @ 17th ASEP’s Int’l Conf. (1st Runner-Up) ORIGINAL PGA OF SLIGHT DAMAGE MODERATE DAMAGE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE COMPLETE DAMAGE MINDORO 1999 0.15g (Magnitude 5.0)   9% 1% 0% BOHOL 2013 0.22g (Magnitude 7.2) 22% 4% DESIGNED SEISMIC ACCEL. 0.4g 57% 21% 6% KOBE 1995 0.82g (Magnitude 6.9) 90% 64% 52% TOHOKU-KANTO 2011 2.99g (Magnitude 9.0) 100%

Devolved undergraduated theses … Academe Experience Devolved undergraduated theses … 1st & 2nd Semesters SY2015-2016: 5 research projects Muzon-Baritan Bridge LRT Line 1 (5th Avenue – Monumento Stations) Low-Rise Building (Case study of OLFU) Mid-Rise Building (Case study of STI-Caloocan) Heritage Structure: San Bartolome Church in Malabon (on-going)

5-storey commercial/industrial building REHABILITATION PROGRAM Industry practice 5-storey commercial/industrial building REHABILITATION PROGRAM 30,000 Gallon overhead steel tank design and analysis Many more built structures incorporating Seismic Assessments

Incorporation of Uncertainties Bayesian Updating tools (deterioration) The Future Incorporation of Uncertainties Bayesian Updating tools (deterioration) More sophisticated structural analyses, e.g. programming the FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS in linear and non-linear materials Use of other commercially available SAP’s

Seismic assessment of existing structures Closing…err…Opening Seismic assessment of existing structures Safety and Reliability of BUILT STRUCTURES. More researchers, more publication + “seeking for the TRUTH” = f (development, understanding, action, finances, …) WELCOME to the world of RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT!!!

Questions are now welcome.

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING !!! You may follow me in my researchgate.net to DL my other research papers: www.researchgate.net/ Engr. Michael B. Baylon ikingbalon@gmail.com iking_balon@yahoo.com