Red River of the North 1997 $2 Billion damages 60,000 people evacuated Grand Forks and East Grand Forks

Blizzards Over 100 inches of snow 300% of normal Fast melt in mid April

Hell and High Water Flood waters caused fires to destroy downtown buildings.

What I’ve Learned Build relationships. Once trust is compromised it is hard to reestablish. Customers expect and want more than science (meteorology, hydrology, and climatology) can provide.

What I’ve Learned People listen to what is relevant to them People filter information to match their understanding and expectations Historical Crests (1) 54.35 ft on 04/22/1997 (2) 50.20 ft on 04/10/1897 (3) 48.81 ft on 04/26/1979 (4) 48.00 ft on 04/18/1882 (5) 47.93 ft on 04/06/2006 (6) 47.41 ft on 04/16/2006 (7) 45.93 ft on 04/21/1996 (8) 45.73 ft on 04/11/1978 (9) 45.69 ft on 04/16/1969 (10) 45.61 ft on 05/12/1950

Hope Just like the rain prophets, it was like the NWS was supposed to be providing HOPE to the Grand Forks and East Grand Forks community.

Anger “anger was most famously expressed by a local resident's devastated home having the words "49 feet my ass" smeared on the exterior”

Pet Issues Forecasters must be clear about limitations and capabilities of forecasts. Ineffective communications occur when we make assumptions about what people know. Forecaster EGO To compensate for our own uncertainty we over-state forecast capabilities

Pet Issues Probabilities preserve scientific validity but are not well understood

Priorities: Customer Satisfaction Expanded Outreach/Training New types of easy to use information Consistent access to information Specific, accurate, and timely information with longer forecast horizons 10.5 feet Critical Low Flow level – dredging may be required to sustain navigation Priorities: Customer Satisfaction… Service Improvement – Flood to Drought – Identifying Customer Needs through open dialogue, Customer Satisfaction, Value of Hydrology Decision Support Information, NWS and Society Expanded Customer Outreach and Training – TADD, Safety Professional Development and Hydrology Science Training- Regional and Local Hydrology Program Management and Leadership. – NOAA Water Resources Program needs leaders who understand Hydrology Science and Service issues. New types of easy to use information and Consistent access to information… Hydrology Web Services – Phase V and VI, RSS, Integration and expansion of RFC web services, Inundation Mapping Specific, accurate and timely information Data Networks, Water Supply Forecasts, Long-term and Short-term Probability Graphics, Forecast Confidence Index. Business training and Project Management Utilizing the latest technologies, Management of Information Systems - Databases, Business Intelligence GIS Support

Challenges Make scientific knowledge relevant and meaningful. Clearly convey limitations of forecasts. Learn what questions customers want answered. Learn appropriate forms for presenting information.

Questions to discuss What are the most effective ways to provide training to help customers understand scientific forecasts? How can we remove barriers between customers and forecasters? What type of information is meaningful to customers? What will motivate forecasters to learn new communication methods?