Muhammad AS Hikam (President University & Kiroyan Partners) THE JAKARTA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION & ITS REPERCUSSIONS ON THE 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Muhammad AS Hikam (President University & Kiroyan Partners)

Outline Highlights The Jakarta Gub Election: The Noisy First Round. The Runoff: Who will Prevail? Toward 2019 Presidential Eelections: Some Repercussions. Conclusion.

Highlights It might be one of the noisiest and a rather bizarre elections, but highly attractive to both national public interests (hence the label “Pilkada Rasa Pilpres”) and international spectators The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election as one of national barometers: a political climate reference for other regions. Two most important political problems: High polarization of society and a possible threat to pluralism. The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election could have some repercussions on the next Presidential Election in 2019. But to what extent? The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election poses an important political test for Mr. Joko Widodo’s (PJ) leadership & reelection in 2019.

The Contenders

Electability & Satisfaction Index Poll tracing (15 September 2016) : 68.72% of the public is satisfied with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s performance. SMRC (20 Oktober 2016) : 75% of the public is satisfied with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s performance. LSI (15 Desember 2016) : 75% of the public is satisfied with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s performance.

Mass Consolidation and Propaganda Mass Mobilization SARA Al Maida 51 4 November 2016 2 December 2016 11 February 2017 21 February 2017 Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s Electability Problem

Factors Determining Ahok-Djarot’s Rebound Managing religious blasphemy issue Prevailing in the public debates Escaping from SBY political maneuvers

Results of the 1st Round of The Jakarta Gubernatorial Elections KPU DKI

Political Map of the Runoff Election vs PDIP, Nasdem, Hanura, Golkar ? Gerindra, PKS, PPP, PAN Demokrat, PKB

Ahok-Djarot’s Vulnerabilities Legal battle of Religious Blasphemy Case: Is he going to prevail or lose? Communications’ Style : Is he going to transform it to be less confrontational & more “civil”? Vulnerable to attacks on SARA issues: How will he convince to sceptical Moslem voters and golputers.

Ahok-Djarot’s Campaign Strategies More political exposures (both the Jakarta and National level) : Meeting w/ King Salman; keeping close contacts with PJ More grass-roots appeals: Visiting the grave of Mbah Priok; the silent ‘blusukan’; the meetings w/ blue and orange troops; Kalijodo and other community parks Lobbying AHY supporters: Jokowi’s Meeting with SBY; communicating with PD and PKB

Ahok-Djarot Voting Expansions Non-Muslim Voters Middle to Upper Educational Level Middle to Upper Economic Level Muslim Voters Lower Educational Level Lower Economic Level + - Demonstrating and convincing them on the success of programs already executed in Jakarta. Erasing doubts in people minds about religious blasphemy or anti-Moslems. Approaching the lower ranks of the community using blusukan, and silent campaigns to the grass-roots groups.

Anies-Sandi’s Vulnerabilities Promised programs are still vague and controversial (0% DP housing, Rp 3 Milyar/RW subsidies) Closeness with sectarian and hardliner groups and figures (visiting FPI hq; soft on the issue of fundementalizm) Public images: - Anies as a flip flop leader. -Sandi’s legal issues -Anies lack of real achievements

Anies-Sandy’s Campaign Strategies Approaching Agus-Sylvi’s supporters and adopting some of the programs of the AHY. Improving work programs. Utilizing the Religious issues to weaken Ahok’s eelectability

Anies-Sandi Voting Expansions Non-Muslim Voters Middle to Upper Educational Level Middle to Upper Economic Level Muslim Voters Lower Educational Level Lower Economic Level - + Improving work programs. Showing pluralistic attitude. Not bragging about programs that may threaten investment and business climate. Campaigning pro-public programs (housing, education, health). Capitalizing Religious issues and identity to create negative sentiment against the opposite camp.

Early Predictions

Threats & Vulnerabilities of The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election KPUD’s Neutrality? Triggering Conflicts Uncertainty Political Polarizations Horizontal Conflicts Threat to Pluralism

Threats and Vulnerabilities (contd.) Wait & See Lost Time Political Cost Uncertain Direction of Policies ECONOMY AND BUSINESS Hardliner and Intolerant Groups Religious Blasphemy Issue Mobocracy

Who wins?: Implications to Economy and Business Relatively little changes in public policies. Bureaucracy is simpler and more transparent. Politics might be heated with strong resistance from the hardliners using sectarian issues. Policy and management style of Jakarta will change. Programs like the Housing with 0% DP and the Pro-SME projects will cause major business challenges.

Toward 2019: Political warming up?

Repercussions of The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election on the Presidential Election 2019 Coalitions of supporting parties in the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election is not linear with coalitions at the Central level Ideological sentiments currently seems strong in Jakarta – Yet, in other regions, Islam-based parties actually support non-muslim candidates The total number of Jakarta residents is a mere 4.06 % of the total number of Indonesian residents Electing Indonesia’s president remains highly affected by ethnic background: there is a high tendency to elect a President from the predominant (41,6%) Javanese ethnic group.

Joko Widodo Incumbency Of Javanese descent Better party coalition Relatively free from past cases / issues

Prabowo Subianto Challenger Limited party coalition Record of past cases

Other Possible Contenders in 2019

By Way of Conclusion The “riotous” nature of the 2017 Jakarta Gub. election has contributed to uncertainties, chief among them is in the realms of economic and business affairs. Political instabilities could threaten pluralism and open the door for those hardliners and sectarian groups to advance their political interests. The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election reflects the basis of powers that most probably would fight in the 2019 Presidential Elections. However, the winner of the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election does not necessarily determine the chance of winning 2019 Presidential Elections. Regardless of the winner in the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election, PJ has remained one of the strongest contenders for the Presidential Election in 2019.