Synthetic benchmark datasets for homogenization of IWV time series

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Presentation transcript:

Synthetic benchmark datasets for homogenization of IWV time series retrieved by GPS Anna Klos1, Eric Pottiaux2, Roeland Van Malderen3, Olivier Bock4, and Janusz Bogusz1 1) Military University of Technology (MUT), Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Warsaw, Poland, anna.klos@wat.edu.pl, janusz.bogusz@wat.edu.pl 2) Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB), Brussels, Belgium, eric.pottiaux@observatoire.be 3) Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), Brussels, Belgium, roeland@meteo.be 4) IGN LAREG, University Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris, France, olivier.bock@ign.fr

analysis of significant frequencies, noise model. MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS What we did is… We analysed and characterized the Integrated Water Vapour differences retrieved by GPS using ERA-Interim for IGS stations: homogenisation, analysis of significant frequencies, noise model. We built a synthetic datasets: „Easy”, „Less-complicated”, „Fully-complicated” which will be tested with various statistical tools by homogenisation community. The aim: to test various homogenization methods (statistical vs. manual) using a benchmark.

120 stations, daily observations, period of 1995-2010. MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS IGS „repro1” troposphere products screened and converted to Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) by O. Bock. 120 stations, daily observations, period of 1995-2010.

MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS IGS „repro1” troposphere products screened and converted to Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) by O. Bock. We focused on the differences: ERAI-GPS, which may reveal artificial breaks.

Manual homogenisation: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Manual homogenisation: 1029 epochs which were reported in the IGS log files (ftp://igs.ign.fr/pub/igs/igscb/station/log/ and ftp://igs.ign.fr/pub/igs/igscb/station/oldlog/, changes in R=receiver, A=antenna, D=radome). We averaged the epochs from log files from 1029 to 970 epochs: 164 offsets validated manually. 57 offsets were additionally reported during manual checking. Finally: 221 epochs.

Significant oscillations: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Significant oscillations: PSD of ZTD for BJFS (Beijing, China). Reproduced from Klos et al. (2016) If significant frequencies were not accounted for, it may lead to wrong trend estimates. Computations were performed with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) in the Hector software.

MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Noise model: Combination of autoregressive process of first order plus white noise (AR(1)+WN) characterized by: AR: a coefficient, fraction and amplitude, WN: amplitude.

Real data characteristics: Trends in IWV differences. MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Real data characteristics: Trends in IWV differences.

Real data characteristics: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Real data characteristics: Noise: fraction of AR(1), coefficient of AR(1), amplitudes of WN and AR(1).

Real data characteristics: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Real data characteristics: Noise: fraction of AR(1), coefficient of AR(1), amplitudes of WN and AR(1).

Real data characteristics: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Real data characteristics: Noise: fraction of AR(1), coefficient of AR(1), amplitudes of WN and AR(1).

Generation of the benchmark dataset: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Generation of the benchmark dataset: generation of IWV from ERA-Interim (ERAI_synt), GPS (GPS_synt) and IWV differences ERAI-GPS (DIFF_synt), estimates of IWV differences from synthetic GPS and ERAI (ERAI_synt-GPS_synt), we examined the character of all above-mentioned, we found that some part of the power for series from (2) cannot be played back, the safest way: generating the synthetic IWV differences.

Generation of the benchmark dataset (DIFF_synt): MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Generation of the benchmark dataset (DIFF_synt): Three variants of the benchmark dataset were constructed: ‘Easy’ dataset: it includes seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, ter- and quater-annual, if present for a particular station) + offsets + white noise (WN), ‘Less-complicated’ dataset: … + autoregressive process of the first order + white noise (AR(1)+WN), ‘Fully-complicated’ dataset: …+trend + gaps.

Generation of the benchmark dataset: 120 synthetic dataset simulated, MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Generation of the benchmark dataset: 120 synthetic dataset simulated, mathematical model of data taken directly from real differences: trend, seasonal signals, noise, offsets simulated randomly, number of offsets and exact epochs are blinded.

Generation of the benchmark dataset (DIFF_synt): MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Generation of the benchmark dataset (DIFF_synt): Three variants of the benchmark dataset were constructed:

Generation of the benchmark dataset (DIFF_synt): MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Generation of the benchmark dataset (DIFF_synt): Three variants of the benchmark dataset were constructed:

Verification of benchmark w.r.t. original differences (DIFF_synt): MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Verification of benchmark w.r.t. original differences (DIFF_synt): FULLY-COMPLICATED Coefficients of AR agree within 0.05. Amplitudes agree with – see histograms.

Only real breakpoints not regime-like shifts should be corrected! MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS What we aim at? Evident regime-like shifts can be noticed. These should not be corrected and interpreted as real breaks due to climate change or any changes related to GPS instrument. Only real breakpoints not regime-like shifts should be corrected!

Expected trend uncertainty MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Expected trend uncertainty Preliminary estimation of which trend uncertainty can be expected from real differences, based on synthetic differences (DIFF_synt).

Workplan and priorities: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Workplan and priorities: „Fully-complicated” dataset has the highest priority for the comparison of the identified breaks by the different groups, the other variants are test datasets, but the comparison of the results between those datasets will also learn us on the impact of e.g. the autoregressive process, trends, and gaps on the functioning of the different homogenization tools, the trend estimates (and their uncertainties) of the Fully- complicated synthetic GPS IWV dataset will be estimated, so that we can also undertake an assessment of the different trend estimation tools in use in the community.

Find the optimal statistical approach to homogenise the IWV series. MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Summing up: Test different statistical approaches to give a clear answer if we are able (or not) to report offsets with statistical approaches, being aware of the autoregressive noise in a stochastic part of the IWV data. Find the optimal statistical approach to homogenise the IWV series. Use this tool (or tools) to homogenise the IGS repro1 dataset.

Thank you! Acknowledgments: MOTIVATION DATA METHODOLOGY REAL DATA BENCHMARK DATASET CONCLUSIONS Acknowledgments: Anna Klos was supported by COST Action ES1206 GNSS4SWEC (gnss4swec.knmi.nl) during her stay at the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) and the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI). Janusz Bogusz was supported by the Polish National Science Centre, grant No. UMO-2016/21/B/ST10/02353 Thank you!