Wall Street Perspectives: 2015 Key Med-Tech Themes

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Presentation transcript:

Wall Street Perspectives: 2015 Key Med-Tech Themes Rick Wise, CFA Stifel does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. All relevant disclosures and certifications appear on pages 10-11 of this report.

Looking Back at 2014: Large-Cap Med-Tech Outperformed 2014 Large-Cap Coverage Performance 2014 S&P 500 Healthcare Equipment & Supply Index +24.1% S&P Healthcare Index +23.7% S&P 500 +12.4% Drivers: Stabilizing major markets Lots of M&A New product launches Positive clinical data points

Looking Back at 2014: Small-Caps Did Not Outperform 2014 Small-Cap Coverage Performance Note: TriVascular performance based on IPO date (4-16-2014) to year-end 2014

Looking Back at 2014: Lots of Transformative and Incremental M&A Source: www.flickr.com Source: www.pixgood.com

Looking Back at 2014: Lots of Transformative M&A Medtronic + Covidien Becton Dickinson + CareFusion Zimmer + Biomet Abbott + Veropharm Abbott + Topera Abbott + CFR Pharmaceuticals Boston Scientific + Bayer Interventional St. Jude Medical + NeuroTherm St. Jude Medcial + CardioMEMS Stryker + BERCHTOLD Stryker + Pivot Medical Stryker + Small Bone Innovations AtriCure + Estech LeMaitre Vascular + Xenotis Novadaq + Aimago Spectranetics + Stellarex Spectranetics + AngioScore

2015 Outlook: Mostly More of the Same Major markets stable to slightly improving Emerging markets still growing rapidly Foreign exchange still a drag Industry consolidation to continue Med-tech tax repeal

Foreign Exchange Headwinds: Ongoing Headache U.S. Dollar Strength vs. Euro, Yen, etc. will continue to pressure Med-Tech top- and bottom-line outlook. Adverse impact will vary depending on each company’s financial/natural hedges. On average, our large-cap coverage generates ~47% of total revenues outside the U.S., ranging 23% (CFN) to 71% (ABT). Year-over-year impact of projected average FX rates Major Currencies: Year-to-date, the Euro has weakened ~6% relative to the U.S. dollar; while the Yen remained flat. Our large-cap coverage generates roughly 30% of total revenue (on average) in Euro and Yen denominated geographies alone.

The ACA is Here to Stay and …Med-Tech Tax Repeal Appears on the Table Med-Tech Tax repeal could drive 2-4% EPS upside for Large-Cap Med-Tech Biggest beneficiaries: Boston Scientific, C.R. Bard, and Edwards. Bipartisan support has grown over time. But demands for revenue neutral changes remain a barrier. A tax repeal would be more beneficial for our small-cap coverage, with 20% earnings upside

Summing Up: 2015 Looks Like 2014 Major markets stable to slightly improving Emerging markets still growing rapidly Foreign exchange still a drag Industry consolidation to continue Med-tech tax repeal

Important Disclosures and Certifications   I, Rick Wise, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Rick Wise, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. For our European Conflicts Management Policy go to the research page at www.stifel.com. Stifel research analysts receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) Stifel's overall investment banking revenues. Our investment rating system is three tiered, defined as follows: BUY -For U.S. securities we expect the stock to outperform the S&P 500 by more than 10% over the next 12 months. For Canadian securities we expect the stock to outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index by more than 10% over the next 12 months. For other non-U.S. securities we expect the stock to outperform the MSCI World Index by more than 10% over the next 12 months. For yield-sensitive securities, we expect a total return in excess of 12% over the next 12 months for U.S. securities as compared to the S&P 500, for Canadian securities as compared to the S&P/TSX Composite Index, and for other non-U.S. securities as compared to the MSCI World Index. HOLD -For U.S. securities we expect the stock to perform within 10% (plus or minus) of the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. For Canadian securities we expect the stock to perform within 10% (plus or minus) of the S&P/TSX Composite Index. For other non-U.S. securities we expect the stock to perform within 10% (plus or minus) of the MSCI World Index. A Hold rating is also used for yield-sensitive securities where we are comfortable with the safety of the dividend, but believe that upside in the share price is limited. SELL -For U.S. securities we expect the stock to underperform the S&P 500 by more than 10% over the next 12 months and believe the stock could decline in value. For Canadian securities we expect the stock to underperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index by more than 10% over the next 12 months and believe the stock could decline in value. For other non-U.S. securities we expect the stock to underperform the MSCI World Index by more than 10% over the next 12 months and believe the stock could decline in value. Of the securities we rate, 52% are rated Buy, 46% are rated Hold, and 2% are rated Sell. Within the last 12 months, Stifel or an affiliate has provided investment banking services for 20%, 7% and 0% of the companies whose shares are rated Buy, Hold and Sell, respectively.

AdditionalDisclosures   Please visit the Research Page at www.stifel.com for the current research disclosures and respective target price methodology applicable to the companies mentioned in this publication that are within Stifel's coverage universe. For a discussion of risks to target price please see our stand-alone company reports and notes for all Buy-rated stocks. The information contained herein has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data, nor is it considered an offer to buy or sell any securities referred to herein. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. Employees of Stifel or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed within. Past performance should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Stifel is a multi-disciplined financial services firm that regularly seeks investment banking assignments and compensation from issuers for services including, but not limited to, acting as an underwriter in an offering or financial advisor in a merger or acquisition, or serving as a placement agent in private transactions. These materials have been approved by Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, in connection with its distribution to professional clients and eligible counterparties in the European Economic Area. (Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited home office: London +44 20 7557 6030.) No investments or services mentioned are available in the European Economic Area to retail clients or to anyone in Canada other than a Designated Institution. This investment research report is classified as objective for the purposes of the FCA rules. Please contact a Stifel entity in your jurisdiction if you require additional information. Additional information is available upon request © 2015 Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, One South Street, Baltimore, MD 21202. All rights reserved.