Media Management 5/19/2018

Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Forecasting What is a Forecast? An attempt to predict the future 5/19/2018

Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Forecasting Not an exact science but instead consists of a set of statistical tools and techniques which are supported by human judgment and intuition. 5/19/2018

It’s hard to make predictions-- 5/19/2018 It’s hard to make predictions-- especially about the future 5/19/2018

Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Forecasting Forecasting Requirements Availability of an adequate supply of accurate and relevant data – historical records A procedure for organizing and processing the data efficiently – forecast techniques 5/19/2018

Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Forecasting The question that must be answered by every company is, given our current skills, or competencies, what share of future opportunities are we likely to capture?….What new competencies would we have to build, and how would our definition of our served market have to change for us to capture a larger share of future opportunities. 5/19/2018

Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Forecasting TODAY FUTURE Who are your Customers How do you reach customers Who are your competitors Basis for competitive advantage Unique skills or capabilities End product markets 5/19/2018

Media Predictions are often too Optimistic or too Pessimistic 5/19/2018 Media Predictions are often too Optimistic or too Pessimistic Too often analyzed in isolation Too often assume a static world 5/19/2018

Forecasting Techniques Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Forecasting Techniques 5/19/2018

Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Quantitative Forecasting Techniques This type of technique is purely statistical, involving the ‘massaging’ of data to extract valuable information. The data is manipulated using statistical tools, which are mathematically based 5/19/2018

Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Based on historical data usually available in the company Assume future will repeat past Uses mathematical formulas and statistics 5/19/2018

Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Growth Curves--Based on: Consumer Surveys Diffusion of Innovations Time Series Analysis 5/19/2018

Qualitative Forecasting Techniques 5/19/2018 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques Based on intuition and informed opinion, such as groups of experts Tend to be subjective 5/19/2018

Qualitative Forecasting Techniques 5/19/2018 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques Used for business planning and forecasting for new products when data is limited or non-existent 5/19/2018

Qualitative Forecasting Techniques 5/19/2018 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques Used for medium-term to long-term forecasting where technological, political, etc. factors play a significant role 5/19/2018

Limitations of Forecasts 5/19/2018 Limitations of Forecasts Changes in Environment forecasts should be updated as new information is developed, as new trends become apparent, or as significant but unanticipated events occur unexpected trends or events do not necessarily render the forecast useless Data Availability 5/19/2018

Inputs to the Forecasting Process (data collection) 5/19/2018 Inputs to the Forecasting Process (data collection) Finding sources of data about the item to be forecast. Obtaining information about external conditions --- those factors in the environment that will influence a forecast. Determining the needs of the user of the forecast. 5/19/2018

Data Collection: Resources 5/19/2018 Data Collection: Resources 5/19/2018

1.Interviews and Surveys 5/19/2018 1.Interviews and Surveys 5/19/2018

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5/19/2018 2. Books 5/19/2018

3. Popular/Special Periodicals 5/19/2018 3. Popular/Special Periodicals 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 4. Trade Press 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 5. Newspapers 5/19/2018

6. Government Documents and Reports 5/19/2018 6. Government Documents and Reports 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 7. Trade Associations 5/19/2018

8. Research Companies and Consultants 5/19/2018 8. Research Companies and Consultants 5/19/2018

9. Foundations, Think Tanks 5/19/2018 9. Foundations, Think Tanks 5/19/2018

10. Educational Institutions 5/19/2018 10. Educational Institutions 5/19/2018

Steps for developing a forecast. 5/19/2018 Steps for developing a forecast. 1. Write down the basic facts about past trends and forecasts. 2. Identify the causes of changes in past trends. 3. Identify the causes of past forecast errors (forecast - actual). 5/19/2018

Steps for developing a forecast. 5/19/2018 Steps for developing a forecast. 4. Identify factors likely to influence future behavior. 5. Produce a forecast and give the user some measure of its accuracy and reliability. 5/19/2018

Steps for developing a forecast. 5/19/2018 Steps for developing a forecast. 6. Monitor forecast accuracy regularly and identify reasons for significant errors. 7. Revise the forecasts and forecasting methods when necessary. 5/19/2018

Qualitative Forecasting Techniques 5/19/2018 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques Historical Analogy Delphi Model Market Research Scenarios 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 Historical Analogy A systematic comparison of the technology to be forecast with some earlier technology that is believed to have been similar in all or most important respects 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 Historical Analogy Simpler and more common way to forecast the growth of a new technology, though as a method its accuracy has been questioned 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 Historical Analogy A key issue is whether the technologies are truly comparable 5/19/2018

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5/19/2018 Delphi Model 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 Delphi Model The Delphi Model is designed for the systematic solicitation of expert opinion. It is purely based on expert opinion and response, and not that of market type researches, which are based on consumer or society’s opinions 5/19/2018

Delphi Model How it Works 5/19/2018 Delphi Model How it Works 1. A questionnaire designed by a monitor team is sent to a select group of experts. 2.  The responses are summarized. 5/19/2018

Delphi Model How it Works 5/19/2018 Delphi Model How it Works 3.  The results are sent back to the respondents who have the opportunity to re-evaluate their original answers, based upon the responses of the group. 5/19/2018

Delphi Model How it Works 5/19/2018 Delphi Model How it Works 4. By incorporating a second and sometimes third round of questionnaires, the respondents have the opportunity to defend their original answers or change their position to agree with the majority of respondents. 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 Market Research Similar to the Delphi Model, except its focus is based on consumer opinion as opposed to expert opinion 5/19/2018

Scenarios Stylized Narratives 5/19/2018 Scenarios Stylized Narratives Provide a vivid picture of a future state May include some statistics, but are not wholly quantitative Have a beginning, a middle and an end 5/19/2018

Scenarios There can be—and should be—more than one scenario 5/19/2018 Scenarios There can be—and should be—more than one scenario They trace a progression from now to the future 5/19/2018

5/19/2018 Scenarios Good scenarios are ones that explore the possible, not just the probable Provide a relevant challenge to the conventional wisdom of their users Provide a useful context for debate, leading to better policy and strategy 5/19/2018 Shell.com

Scenarios Writing the Scenario 5/19/2018 Scenarios Writing the Scenario Generate a list of affecting trends and factors Combine the variables into groups Write Create scenario strategies 5/19/2018

Scenarios: Broadband Diffusion in the US 5/19/2018 Intra and Inter-modal (platform) competition Technological innovation (e.g Speed) Cost condition (population density) Policy and regulation (LLU) Innovative broadband rollouts Weak/unfavorable Strong/favorable Low/Weak Income Price Marketing Education Internet use Application Content Public awareness High/Strong SECTOR I: Current Status 19.2% broadband penetration Year 2006 12TH among OECD countries SECTOR II: Supply Side-Driven Around 55% broadband penetration Year 2015 Supply side variables dominated SECTOR III: Demand Side-Driven Demand side variables dominated SECTOR IV: Ubiquitous Broadband Market saturation Around 60% broadband penetration Supply and demand side variables 5/19/2018

Understanding the Media 5/19/2018 Team Any questions? 5/19/2018