British Seismology Meeting 5th – 7th April 2017, Reading, UK Probabilistic seismic hazard model outcomes from the SIGMA research programme Gloria SENFAUTE Seismologist, PhD Elecrticité de France EDF Aix en Provence, France Vnn British Seismology Meeting 5th – 7th April 2017, Reading, UK British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

What is SIGMA ? A Research & Development programme (2011 – 2016) to improve knowledge, methods and tools to better quantify and reduce uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment 4 Sponsors : 35 International organisations : universities, research centres, engineering consulting... 14 PhD students, 45 publications in peer reviewed international journals Project leader ! British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

OBJECTIVE To present the progress of SIGMA to elaborate a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model (PSHA) for regions with low to moderate seismicity Typical product of a PSHA : Annual rate with which various levels of Ground Motion are expected to be exceeded at the site of interest British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

THE ELEMENTS OF PSHA SIGMA progress: Magnitude Frequency distributions Geometry of sources Seismic Catalogue for the French territory Magnitude Frequency distributions Max Magnitude Seismic ground motion data base and new GMPEs SIGMA progress: British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

SEISMIC CATALOGUE Researches carried out in 3 periods : Before SIGMA any homogenous catalogue in moment magnitude in France. Researches carried out in 3 periods : Instrumental (1962– 2009); Early-instrum (1905 – 1972); Historical (463 – before 1905) Homogenous in Mw Uncertainties for the estimate parameters Cara et al 2015 BSG; Deunieul et al 2015 BSSA Baumant et al, Traversa et al, Manchuel et al (submitted in BEE, 2017) British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

Magnitude-Frequency distribution MFDs from synthetic catalogues sampling the Mw uncertainties in the original one 200 Synthetic catalogues for each zone The uncertainties in the G-R parameters is quantified by propagating the uncertainties in terms of earthquake magnitude British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

MAXIMAL MAGNITUDE FOR PSHA CALCULATIONS Impact of Mmax on the final PSHA result Mmax SHARE model Mmax Bayesian Approach Mmax observed + increment + scaling Annual rate of excedance Bayesian approach EPRI (1994) : European Prior Mmax distribution SCR 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 MMAX PDF PRIOR Mmax distribution European ACTIVE European STABLE EPRI(1994) non-extended crust EPRI(1994) extended crust Ameri et al 2016, AFPS British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

9 new GMPEs : GROUND-MOTION ATTENUATION MODELS * 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Akkar et al. Bindi et al. Bora et al. Hermkes et al. Derras et al. Parametric models Data-driven models Empirical FAS, duration + RVT Douglas et al Bull Erth Eng 2014 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. * http://www.resorce-portal.eu Akkar et al 2013, BEE 6. Stochastic GMPE for low seismicity areas - Drouet & Cotton 2015, BSSA 7. GMPE for a new intensity measure ASA40 - Koufoudi et al 2014, De Biasio et al 2015 8. GMPE for Europe + weak motions – Ameri et al, submitted BEE 9. Regional GMPE for Po Plain area – Lanzano et al, BSSA *Research using the SIGMA data but not directly funded by SIGMA British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

PSHA Calculations:19 sites British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

RESULTS RP 475y Comparing : SIGMA PSHA model (2016) & MEED SIGMA MEED RESULTS Comparing : SIGMA PSHA model (2016) & MEED model (2002) 20 sites X : median SIGMA model : means SIGMA model : means MEED model X : median MEED model Bars 16th – 84th fractiles Martin et al 2017 submitted in BEE British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017 PGA (g) PSA 1s(g)

RESULTS RP 475y Comparing SIGMA PSHA model and SHARE European model 20 sites X : medians SIGMA model : means SIGMA model : medians SHARE model X : medians SHARE model Bars 16th – 84th fractiles Martin et al 2017 submitted in BEE British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017 PGA (g) PSA 1s (g)

Conclusions SIGMA provided a reference for the PSHA practices and set new standards for future studies. The majors improvements are: The use of a homogenous earthquake catalogue in Mw with associated uncertainties. The assessment of the maximum earthquake magnitude by applying a Bayesian approach that avoid the excessive use expert judgment. The use of a new set of GMPEs developed for the Pan-European region. The logic tree is improved by considering recent progress in PSHA practices (faults models, smoothed seismicity models) SIGMA PSHA model was compared with national and international models providing overall lower accelerations with respect the others models. British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017

Thanks for your attention PERSPECTIVES: Starting in 2017 Thanks for your attention British Seismology Meeting 5th - 7th April, 2017