Eszter Bakonyi: Theoretical Dilemmas on Measuring Trust Toward Institutions Medián Opinion and Market Research Institute, Budapest Between Social Change and Nationalism Conference in Honour of Dr. Michalis Attalides 10-11 November, 2006, Nicosia
1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization) trust in one’s fellows or in the institutions feeling or strategic action manifestation: solidarity and participation the origins of trust: society or the political system
1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization) trust or distrust: - trust makes participation, activity and democracy work, distrust paralyzes society - trust doesn’t exist (in the fellows), only in the penalties - trust doesn’t need democratic order, but chaos
1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization) functional definitions of trust: - cognitive - social - legitimatory from a normative point of view: which one should we prefer: - high degree of trust (interest in politics, information, own opinion) - Liberal Distrust (against blind trust and the non-Weberian bureaucracy
1. Theoretical dilemmas (conceptualization) Luhmann’s typology: confidence trust the presuppositions don’t fail to take the risk or not in the system in one’s fellows the condition of participation the condition of best application of chances outside causes to explain the situation inside causes lack: back to the private lack: fewer actions and opportunities of rational actions (it makes smaller the system) their relationship: not a zero-sum game
2. Methodological dilemmas (operationalization) invisible → becomes conscious when it has been broken → how to measure the presence and/ or the volume and/ or the consequences not directly → indicators
2. Methodological dilemmas (operationalization) „Do you trust the president?” – about the goodwill or the competence measuring trust towards institutions or the degree of information about institutions – participation, role of the media
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus mistrust toward institutions in Central European societies before the regime change in 1989-1990: - the historical situation - reading between the lines - informal economy & public sphere and discourses
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus Political institutions Legal institutions & armed corps Social & economic institutions blind trust 81 92 83 general trust 66 68 67 trust that law prevails 69 85 52 trust in central authority, strong state 62 54 46 trust in counterbalance of central authority 37 39 49 waiting for political change 63 56 order-loving suspicious 43 61 29 general distrust 33 34 27 dismissive 11 10 13
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus Ferenc Gyurcsány’s (PM) speech → demonstration, violence, the opposition party brought politics to the streets and out from the parliament the 50th celebration of the 1956 revolution → brutality of the police ‘edification’: weak institutions
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus What do you think, who has the main responsibility for the runaway anger? (percentage) What do you think, should the Prime Minister resign or he shouldn’t resign after what happened? (percentage)
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus the British took control (1878) → the bicommunal character had been formed and consolidated ethnopolitical polarization, structural inadequacies of the state, the lack of experience in self-government, the absence of a consensual political leader → open ethnic confrontation & collapse of the state (1963) an almost complete separation came into effect after the Turkish invasion (1974)
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus result: - politicization of ethnicity - perceptions dominated by the ‘suspicion syndrome’ - both are institutionalized - the reclosing of the ceasefire line that divides the island seems to be only a matter of time
3. Two cases: Hungary and Cyprus comparing the Hungarian and the Cypriot case: - the question of trust - showing political questions as moral questions - ingroup-outgroup conflict - Hungary: the confidence has been broken, Cyprus: the trust has been broken
Thank you for your attention! bakonyi@median.hu