World Weather Research Programme Paolo Ruti, Chief World Weather Research Division Sarah Jones, Chair Scientific Steering Committee

Historical background 1950 63 1967 1970 ---- 1974 1985 1985 1998 2004 2014 WGNE, Working Group on Numerical Experimentation THORPEX (Observing System and Predictability Experiment) established as a WWRP Working Group GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Programme) established by WMO (World Meteorological Organization) WMO the specialized agency of the United Nations for meteorology Conduct of GARP Regional Experiments: GATE:GARPAtlanticTropicalExperiment MONEX:MonsoonExperiment ALPEX:AlpineExperiment AMEX:AirMassTransformationExperiment WWRP (World Weather Research Programme) established in cooperation with GEWEX. MAP & Sidney2000 GARP 15 years programme WCRP first agreement in 1980 WMO-ICSU, new agreement in 1993 WMO-ICSU-ICO … it is time to have a new one in 2020 … World Weather Watch WCRP, World Climate Research Programme (WMO, ICSU) 1st World Weather Research Open Science Conference, Canada

Improving the skill – big resources ECMWF’s forecast Z500hPa extra-tropical error growth over the last two decades WMO, 2015: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G Brunet, S Jones, PM Ruti Eds.), (WMO-No. 1156), (ISBN 978-92-63-11156-2), Geneva. RMS (m) In the last twenty years, progress in Numerical Weather Prediction has been tremendous, as illustrated for example in Figure 3 for the ECMWF model. As mentioned earlier, this progress was driven by various factors. Improvements in models (resolution and description of physical processes) and in significant initial condition error reductions via progress in data assimilation methods are documented to be the main factors (Magnusson and Kallen, 2013).

WWRP Mission The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) is WMO’s programme that promotes international and interdisciplinary research for more accurate and reliable forecasts from minutes to seasons, expanding the frontiers of weather science to enhance society’s resilience to high-impact weather and the value of weather information for users.    WWRP aims at Seamless Prediction by increasing convergence between weather, climate and environmental approaches and strengthening interdisciplinary collaborations.

Around 4 societal challenges URBANIZATION HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WATER NEW TECHNOLOGIES With its new implementation plan, WWRP will ensure the realization of a research strategy towards the seamless prediction of the Earth system from minutes to months. This research strategy is developed to face four scientific and societal challenges identified by the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences : High-Impact Weather, Water, Urbanization and Evolving Technologies.

WWRP Implementation Plan Structure

WWRP Structure Research Development/ WWRP Working Groups WWRP Core Projects Sand&Dust Storm Research Development/ Forecasting Demonstration Projects

High Impact Weather Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF), Andrew Robertson (IRI) Evaluate potential predictability of sub-seasonal events through a multi-model approach. Understand systematic errors and biases in the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast range Focus on specific extreme event case studies increasing resilience and improving adapting capacity. Project Office: KMA/NIMR

WWRP Implementation Plan 2016-2023 Booklet 1: Introduction and broader vision – eight years plan Booklet 2: Concrete actions proposed by WGs and projects for each selected activity – 2 year rolling basis Societal Challenges HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WATER URBANIZATION NEW TECHNOLOGIES Action Areas Address Limitations Uncertainty Fully Coupled Applications Verification Attribution Integrated Water Cycle New Observations Precipitation Processes Hydrological Uncertainty Understand Needs Observations & Processes Urban Prediction Advanced Methods Support Facilities Tools New Observations Future GOS Selected Activities For each Action Area the WWRP Working Groups and Projects proposed Selected Activities, which also offer points for collaborations

WWRP Implementation Plan Structure

Next 2 year concrete actions Booklet 2 provides activities that are planned by Projects and Working Groups to help achieving the overall WWRP programmatic goals for each of the four Themes and 18 Action Areas, based on last year’s round of contributions Working groups and projects were now asked to update this information by listing concrete activities along with a time frame

Preliminary evaluation of WG /Project Feedback Feedback received from all WGs and Projects, despite: ETWM, SDS-WAS and SERA. Few info only from DAOS Feedback overall quite comprehensive, covering most of the topics to a good extent Only few suggestions for concrete activities so far in the following action areas: (activities listed in current version of IP 2 versus new feedback provided by the WGs/Projects, not counting missing feedback) AA 7: Water – Integrated water AA 10: Water – Hydrological Uncertainty AA 12: Urbanization – Observations & Processes (chemical aspects) Feedback files from all WG / Projects, as well as compilation of all in one file are available at https://goo.gl/TBktWe

Preliminary evaluation of WG /Project Feedback Suggested activities cover Contributions to many ongoing or approaching initiaitives, e.g. NAWDEX, MesoVICT, HIGHWAY, ICE-POP, UPDRAFT Suggestions for workshops on particular topics, or symposia along with major conferences 2017 (Cape Town, EMS, …) Several workshops already held successfully Members attending relevant conferences, are members or contribute to panels etc. Facilitation of data sets and their usage Feedback partly vague, how concrete can/should it be? Some activities “only” covered by workshops. OK for workshop activities, but enough for others? More concrete actions needed?

High Impact Weather Action Area 1: ADDRESS LIMITATIONS Increase knowledge of the factors limiting the capability to predict, communicate and mitigate the impacts of high-impact weather events; identify how these limitations can be overcome; demonstrate the resulting improvements for specific high-impact weather events from minutes to months, from global to local, for different users in different parts of the world PROGRAMMATIC GOAL: Use diagnostic and verification information to identify capabilities and limitations in predictions of high-impact weather on time scales out to seasonal SELECTED ACTIVITY: Continue to develop the S2S database and use it to assess state-of-the art models and their skill at predicting high-impact weather events such as tropical cyclones, heat/cold waves and their socio-economic impacts [S2S, WGTMR]

Next Steps Preparation of next two-year priorities in terms of programmatic goals and activities - Review Agreeing review process for S2S Long term priorities for possible second phase Science for Operationalization Data Assimilation & Observations Coordinated experiments

What successful people read before bed? Google: seamless prediction WMO https://www.wmo.int/media/content/seamless-prediction-minutes-months

Thank you Merci