Theory of Change Jon Kolko Professor, Austin Center for Design

Combining data in new ways Identifying patterns and anomalies Ethnography Synthesis Prototyping Making meaning through abductive sensemaking and reframing Combining data in new ways Identifying patterns and anomalies Judging, and learning

A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. Theory of Change A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. 3

A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. Theory of Change A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. 4

A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. Theory of Change A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. 5

A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. Theory of Change A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. 6

A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. Theory of Change A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. THEORY OF CHANGE/ Forces articulation of assumptions Identifies logical linkages between things in and out of your control Provides a visual articulation of your program values Links the problem with the outcome, by means of an intervention (a design) Identifies constraints that are often political, social, and systemic 7

Source: http://www.organizationalresearch.com/ 8

Source: http://transmissionproject.org/ 9

Source: http://www. studentemploymentsoftware. com/content. php 10

Source: http://cnunitedway.secureweb2.org/Campaign_Resources.php 11

Source: http://www.blueengine.org/theory-of-change/ 12

Outcomes. Short (Micro) Changes in knowledge, skills, attitudes, and motivations. Medium (Intermediate) Changes in behavior, practice, policy, procedure, activities, methods Long-Term Changes in environment, social conditions, economic conditions, political conditions Source: http://www.blueengine.org/theory-of-change/ 13

Individuals affected by the things we do. What we produce. Outputs. Who we reach. Individuals affected by the things we do. What we produce. The result of our product or service – the artifacts (physical, digital, or knowledge-based) that are made along the way. Source: http://www.blueengine.org/theory-of-change/ 14

Inputs (Activities). What we invest. The resources we offer in order to start the process. Includes time, money, physical resources, partners, intellectual property, etc. What we produce. Our product, system, service, activities, interventions, or other “design product” Source: http://www.blueengine.org/theory-of-change/ 15

Building a Theory of Change Ask, and answer, questions regarding the existing situation: What is the current situation that you intend to impact? Who will be impacted? Why do they need to be impacted – what is the problem with the current situation?

Building a Theory of Change Ask, and answer, questions regarding the desired situation: What will the world look and feel like when your desired situation has been achieved? Who will benefit from this change? Who will suffer from this change?

Building a Theory of Change Define the behaviors that need to change in order to achieve the outcome: What behaviors need to change? Who has those behaviors? What are incentives that can encourage these behavior changes? What will constrain or challenge this behavior change?

Building a Theory of Change Draw the logic diagram – the theory of change At each step, reflect on your contextual research and ethnography. What do you know about the target population that can inform your assumptions?

A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. Theory of Change A tool used to model how short-term changes lead to long-term impacts. THEORY OF CHANGE/ Forces articulation of assumptions Identifies logical linkages between things in and out of your control Provides a visual articulation of your program values Links the problem with the outcome, by means of an intervention (a design) Identifies constraints that are often political, social, and systemic HOW TO BUILD IT/ Ask, and answer, questions regarding the existing situation. Ask, and answer, questions regarding the desired situation. Define the behaviors that need to change in order to achieve the outcome. Draw the logic diagram – the theory of change 20