Who wants to be in the top 1 percent? Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 Who wants to be in the top 1 percent?

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 99 1000 pupils entitled to Free School Meals are in the top 5% of attainers at KS1. How many are still in the top 5% at the end of KS3? A 50 150 C B 250 500 D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 99 1000 pupils entitled to Free School Meals are in the top 5% of attainers at KS1. How many are still in the top 5% at the end of KS3? 150 C

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 95 On average, 32% of pupils with Level 3 in Maths at KS2 attain Level 5 at KS3. For pupils who just miss Level 4 (at KS2) by 1 mark the figure is? A 32% 40% C B 50% 60% D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 95 On average, 32% of pupils with Level 3 in Maths at KS2 attain Level 5 at KS3. For pupils who just miss Level 4 (at KS2) by 1 mark the figure is? 60% D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 90 100 pupils have an ESTIMATED KS3 level of 4.99 – of these, what proportion are likely to achieve Level 5 or higher? A 0% 25% C B 50% 75% D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 90 100 pupils have an ESTIMATED KS3 level of 4.99 – of these, what proportion are likely to achieve Level 5 or higher? B 50%

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 80 What percentage of pupils with SEN Statements and Reading Level 2C progress to KS2 English Level 4+? A 15% 25% C B 35% 5% D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 80 What percentage of pupils with SEN Statements and Reading Level 2C progress to KS2 English Level 4+? B 35%

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 70 Calculating what you would expect a group of pupils to achieve, based upon the progress of similar pupils last year, is ? A A target An estimate C B A guess Daft D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 70 Calculating what you would expect a group of pupils to achieve, based upon the progress of similar pupils last year, is ? An estimate C

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 60 A statistical method often used in value-added calculations is called? A Regurgitation Repetition C B Replication Regression D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 60 A statistical method often used in value-added calculations is called? Regression D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 50 A score converted to a scale of 1 to 100 is called? A Mercantile Infantile C B Percentile Prehensile D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 50 A score converted to a scale of 1 to 100 is called? B Percentile

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 40 The difference between actual and expected attainment is called ? A A result A residual C B The rest A respite D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 40 The difference between actual and expected attainment is called ? A residual C

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 30 Data which aims to provide a measure of the socio-economic context of an area is called? A Geodemographic Geometric C B Geodesic Geopolitical D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 30 Data which aims to provide a measure of the socio-economic context of an area is called? A Geodemographic

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 20 When the average attainment of the intake to schools drops, their value-added tends to: A Stay the same Get worse C B Improve Not fit a pattern D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 20 When the average attainment of the intake to schools drops, their value-added tends to: B Improve

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 10 On average, 32% of pupils with Level 3 in Maths at KS2 attain Level 5 at KS3. For pupils who just get Level 3 (at KS2) the figure is? A 2% 5% C B 10% 20% D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 10 On average, 32% of pupils with Level 3 in Maths at KS2 attain Level 5 at KS3. For pupils who just get Level 3 (at KS2) the figure is? A 2%

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 5 The table shows each schools value-added rank over 3 years. Which of these schools has improved the most? School 2003 2004 2005 Swineshire 50 30 10 Upper Reaches 5 1 Dead End 99 90 80 Middle Earth 20 A Swineshire Upper Reaches C B Dead End Middle Earth D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 5 The table shows each schools value-added rank over 3 years. Which of these schools has improved the most? School 2003 2004 2005 Swineshire 50 30 10 Upper Reaches 5 1 Dead End 99 90 80 Middle Earth 20 B Dead End

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 Percentile Ranks 1-20 High rate of change 20-80 Low rate of change Presenter Background: Finally, the Analyses to Support Self-Evaluation look at trends over time, comparing the estimate/actual difference for each of three years. We only want to show the meaningful trends, where value-added has changed a great deal from one year to the next. In the example above, a school had very low value-added in the first year, and was ‘significantly below’. In the second year, the school was much improved, and it’s value-added was ‘in-line’. In the third year, the school improved again, but to a smaller degree, and it’s value-added was ‘significantly above’ We can say there was a significant change in value-added from the first year to the second, but not from the second year to the third. The trend would be represented by a up arrow for the change in value-added from the first year to the third. 80+ High rate of change

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 Significant Changes Value-added significantly above Value-added broadly in-line with other schools Value-added significantly below Yr 1 2  Significant Change  Change of Significant State  Significant Change  Change of Significant State Value-added significantly above Value-added broadly in-line with other schools Value-added significantly below Yr 1 2 This slide uses four schools to demonstrate changes in percentile ranks. The full range of value-added scores is represented. For some schools, their value-added is significantly below. For some schools, their value-added is significantly above. For the majority of schools, value-added is broadly average. The blue arrows show value-added for a school over three years, indicating how they compare to all other schools. The first school has improving value-added. Over the course of three years, its value-added is average, and the trend is upwards because of the significant change between Year 2 and Year 3. In the second school, value-added improved significantly each year, and is represented by two up arrows. Value-added over the course of three years is average. In the third school, over the course of three years value-added is significantly above, and hence gets a green box. However, the decline between Year 1 and Year 2 is represented by a green arrow. Though not a large change in percentile rank, it is a significant change of value-added. In the fourth school, over the course of three years value-added is average. There was a significant improvement between Year 1 and Year 2, but also a significant decline between Year 2 and Year 3. In this case, it gets an up and a down arrow, indicating the trend is varying.

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 1 On average, 65% of pupils with level 4 in each subject (APS=27) at KS2 attain 5 or more A*C passes at KS4. What is the %5AC for those with level 3 in English, 4 in Maths and 5 in Science (APS = 27). A 45% 55% C B 65% 75% D

Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 1 On average, 65% of pupils with level 4 in each subject (APS=27) at KS2 attain 5 or more A*C passes at KS4. What is the %5AC for those with level 3 in English, 4 in Maths and 5 in Science (APS = 27). A 45%

Impact of Variation between Subjects Fischer Family Trust - Data Analysis Projects - Overview 19/05/2018 Impact of Variation between Subjects …’similar’ pupils – KS2 APS=27 Pupils with ‘uneven’ patterns of prior-attainment are relatively small in number – but the progress made by such pupils can differ widely from others with the same ‘overall’ prior attainment scores. Within the ‘444’ group variations can be found in terms of pupils attainment within the level (derived from test marks). Value Added models, particularly when used to provide estimates, need to take into account variation between subjects as well as overall attainment. Source Data - KS2 to KS4 over 3 years