Space Physics and Space Weather Prof. Yuri Shprits, Section 2.3, GFZ, Potsdam Previously at UCLA and MIT Strand 1;2;4 The source of space weather is the Sun, which regularly emits giant clouds of ionized gas containing 10e16 g or more of hot plasma. These clouds, called coronal mass ejections, move away from the Sun at speeds of 1000 km/s or more, carrying with them strong magnetic fields and highly energetic particles. The Sun also emits powerful solar flares and streams of high-speed solar wind flows. Billions of tons of plasma fly into the interplanetary space and buffet the earth magnetosphere. Some storms take two days to reach the Earth while strongest reach in 12 hours. When the solar wind approaches a planet that has a well-developed magnetic field (such as Earth, Jupiter and Saturn), the particles are deflected by the Lorentz force.  However some of the charged particles are trapped in the Van Allen radiation belt.  Geomagnetic storms occur when surges in the solar wind warp Earth’s magnetosphere, sending energy and charged particles into the upper atmosphere. The fiercest storms occur during crests in the sun’s 11-year activity cycle, marked by powerful solar flares and blizzards of charged particles called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Strong storms can short-circuit satellites and power grids. They also pose a risk for space travel. For example, if the Apollo 17 moon mission in December 1972 had been launched 4 months earlier, “the astronauts would probably have been killed” by a barrage of energetic particles from an extraordinary series of superflares and CMEs, Our group: 100 peer reviewed publications in the last 10 year 5 papers in Nature |Publishing Group International awards: Yuri Shprits PEACASE, YIP, Arnie Richter,EGU Chizevsky medal Tatiana Podladchikova, 2015 Zeldovich Medal Drew Turner, 2016 Consortium collaborators: SRI, Ukrane, FMI Finland, CNRS, France, NOA, Greece. 1

Space Environment Effects Radiation is hazardous to satellite electronics & humans in space Sun ejects clouds of ionized gas towards the Earth Space radiation impacts polar flights (~7,000) (cost ~$0.1 M per flight) Disruption of power grids, blackouts (up to $100M in losses) Over 3,000 satellites; Supporting $25B/yr industry; Replacement cost: $200B; GPS industry is to grow to $1 trillion by 2017; (also relevant to Dept .1) Autonomous cars are projected to appear in 2020 Numer of polar flights LA-MOW Effects on an Earth-orbiting spacecraft: (A) Single-event upsets (SEUs) due to energetic ions; (B) Deep-dielectric charging due to relativistic electrons; (C) Surface charging due to moderate-energy electrons. Polar flights save airlines millions of dollars by shortening routes and flight times (e.g. New York to Beijing or Moscow to Los Angeles), but they also present an increased risk of radiation exposure, particularly for pilots and crews. The pilots of the nearly 11,000 commercial flights routed over the north polar region each year rely on shortwave radio signals bouncing off the ionosphere to communicate above 80 degrees of latitude, beyond the range of communications satellites orbiting over the Equator. When space weather disrupts the ionosphere and interrupts shortwave communications, pilots are obliged to change course, which can cost $100,000 a flight. Safe operations of aircraft and spacecraft in the polar region require detailed knowledge of the radiation environment in this region, including Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). In March 1989, a geomagnetic storm shut down power in much of Quebec, Canada, for several hours, costing millions of dollars to taxpayers.

Importance of Space Weather and Superstorms Increased dependence on the technology in space causes surge in space weather interest Miniaturization of satellite electronics and increased dependence on GPS cause a surge in interest to space weather. March 1989: Magnetic storm burned up a transformer, leaving nine million people in Quebec, Canada without electricity. October-November 2003: During the so-called Halloween Superstorms, 47 satellites reported malfunctions. April 5, 2010: Galaxy 15 stopped responding to ground control. The satellite drifted from its original orbit and interfered with other communication satellites. Prediction of radiation in space and data assimilation; Historical analysis of the radiation belts. Prediction of superstorms and the effects of superstorms.

Radiation Belts (Killer elections) Data from different satellites is blended with a physics-based model by means of data assimilation Radiation belts – two donut-shaped regions of high radiation encompassing the Earth Killer electrons in the outer belt INNER BELT Two-Zone Structure: OUTER BELT Similar methods are used in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, hydrology, seismology and other areas of geosciences

Radiation Belts (Killer elections) Data from different satellites is blended with a physics-based model by means of data assimilation Radiation belts – two donut-shaped regions of high radiation encompassing the Earth Killer electrons in the outer belt INNER BELT Two-Zone Structure: OUTER BELT Similar methods are used in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, hydrology, seismology and other areas of geosciences