DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS MODULE 2 – SESSION 3 DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS This session is one of the most important elements of the contingency planning process. Note that the timing of this session will vary considerably depending on whether you are using the session to explain the process, or to actually facilitate a group in doing the process (which will take considerably more time including the drafting and vetting of outputs.

Participants are able to develop scenarios. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Participants are able to develop scenarios. By end of this session (if used for a training session about contingency planning) , you will be familiar with different approaches to scenario development. You will be able to list the steps to scenario development and develop scenarios based on your own context. If you are using this material to assist in the actual scenario development process, your goal will be to have a developed scenario by the end of this working session.

BEST, MOST LIKELY, AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS DROUGHT FLOOD EARTHQUAKE BEST No drought Seasonal floods 4.5 Richter scale & minor damage MOST LIKELY Moderate drought affecting one part of country Major flood affecting 100,000 people 6.5 Richter scale & major damage in rural areas WORST Severe drought affecting large areas of country Extreme flooding affecting 1,000,000 8.0 Richter scale; epicenter in major city & catastrophic damage Explain that we will use the best, most likely & worst case scenario method to develop scenarios. Share the above example to illustrate the usage of this method.

How many people are affected? QUESTIONS TO ANSWER What is going to happen? What are you going to do? How many people are affected? What is the damage and the worst affected scenario? What are the assumptions? What are the triggering factors? Scenario development is the basis of a contingency plan. In a nutshell, these questions need to be answered when developing scenario: What is going to happen? What are you going to do? Number of affected, worst affected, damage What are the assumptions? What are the triggering factors? Refer participants to the scenario development template in the Contingency Planning Guide, Chapter 2, heading 7. “Building Scenarios”.

PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS EXAMPLES Humanitarian assistance may be needed to assist the Government in protection and providing relief assistance to 50,000 – 70,000 internally displaced people. The potential floods could disrupt livelihoods of 20,000 communities. Should there be spoiling of wells during the cyclone, the affected communities would not have access to clean and safe water. Due to insecurity and limited transportation, communities may have not access to markets to buy their supplies in a timely manner. Example planning assumptions are shown to help participants better understand what planning assumptions are.

STEPS TO DEVELOPING SCENARIOS Describe the current situation & baseline info Define scenarios Select scenarios for further development State assumptions for scenarios Identify triggering events for each scenario Prepare the group to start developing scenarios. Provide the steps for developing scenario. Explain that the process was already started while identifying & prioritizing the potential hazards using the Risk Matrix. Under step 1 the points to be considered are: No. of people affected/location/status/conditions Description of current NS operations Overview of NS capacity Other capacities (Federation, regional or global response tools) make link to earlier session Under Step 2: state which variables could affect the country (ex. security, conflict, political, economics, etc) provide a general scale to rank the situations Under Step 3: Eliminate those with lowest risk eliminate those that have no bearing or implications on NS/Federation Under Step 4: Clearly state assumptions for the remaining scenario(s) to be developed further Under Step 5: Identify possible triggering events for each scenario that would have consequences on your preparation or operational plans