Mission Aircrew Course Search Planning and Coverage

Aircrew Tasks O-2004 USE A POD TABLE (P)

Objectives In basic terms, discuss how search planners determine the Maximum Area of Probability and then the Probability Area. Given a POD table, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of various search altitudes and speeds over the three major types of terrain. Discuss the importance of proper execution of search patterns.

Objectives Optional – Review POD Example

Objectives Define the following search terms: Ground and Search Track Maximum Area of Possibility Meteorological and Search Visibility Probability Area Probability of Detection (POD) Scanning Range Search Altitude Track spacing (S)

Search Terms Ground track is an imaginary line on the ground that is made by an aircraft’s flight path over the ground Maximum Area of Possibility is normally a circular area centered at the search objective’s last know position, with certain corrections Meteorological visibility is the maximum distance at which large objects (e.g., a mountain) can be seen 9.1 Objective 9.1 – Define the following search terms: maximum area of possibility; probability area; POD; search altitude; track spacing; meteorological and search visibility; and ground and search track.

Search Terms Probability Area is a smaller area, within the maximum area of possibility, where there is an increased likelihood of locating the search objective Probability of Detection (POD) is the likelihood, expressed in percent, that a search airplane might locate the objective Scanning range is the lateral distance from a scanner’s aircraft to an imaginary line on the ground, parallel to the ground track, that a scanner is expected to have a good chance at spotting the search objective 9.1 Objective 9.1 – Define the following search terms: maximum area of possibility; probability area; POD; search altitude; track spacing; meteorological and search visibility; and ground and search track.

Search Terms Search Altitude is the altitude the aircraft will fly above the ground (AGL) Search track is an imaginary swath across the surface formed by the scanning range and the length of the aircraft’s ground track Search visibility is the distance at which an object on the ground can be seen and recognized from a particular height Track Spacing (S) is the distance between adjacent visual or electronic search legs 9.1 Objective 9.1 – Define the following search terms: maximum area of possibility; probability area; POD; search altitude; track spacing; meteorological and search visibility; and ground and search track.

Narrowing the Search Search Involves Maximum Possibility Area Estimating the position of the wreck or survivors Determining the area to be searched Selecting the search techniques to be used Maximum Possibility Area Circle around the Last Known Position (LKP) The radius is equal to the endurance of the aircraft Correct for wind Probability Area Where is the aircraft likely to be 9.2.1 & 9.2.2 Objective 9.2 – In basic terms, discuss how search planners determine the maximum area of possibility and then the probability area. These issues are usually handled by the Incident Commander and the Planning staff. You need to be familiar so you can understand where you sortie fits into the mission and what information is important in your debriefing report.

Search Altitudes & Airspeed Maintain a minimum of 1000 feet above the ground, water, or any obstruction within a 1000' radius during daylight hours, and a minimum of 2000' AGL at night (except for takeoff and landing). [Refer to CAPR 60-1 for special restrictions for over-water missions.] For SAR/DR/CD/HLS reconnaissance, the pilot will maintain at least 1000 AGL. Pilots may descend below the designated search altitude to attempt to positively identify the target (but never below 500 AGL or within 500 feet of any obstructions within a 1000' radius); once the target has been identified the pilot will return to 1000' AGL or higher. Airspeed No lower than Vx 9.2.1 & 9.2.2 Objective 9.2 – In basic terms, discuss how search planners determine the maximum area of possibility and then the probability area. These issues are usually handled by the Incident Commander and the Planning staff. You need to be familiar so you can understand where you sortie fits into the mission and what information is important in your debriefing report.

Search Factors Factors which effect detection Weather; terrain; lighting conditions Sweep Width (W) Track Spacing (S) Coverage Factor (C) Probability of Detection (P) Determine factors for search area coverage Type and number of aircraft available Search visibility Probability Of Detection (POD) CAPR60-3 defines the process in great detail. Sweep width = mathematically expressed measure of detection capability - see table in 55-1 A4-4 Track spacing = distance between adjacent search tracks - should never exceed a distance equal to twice the search visibility Search visibility = distance at which an object can be recognized on the ground - always less than the meteorological visibility Coverage factor = W/S Search altitudes – 1,000 - 2,000 ft. for aircraft crash over open terrain in good weather; 500 – 1,000 ft. for missing person; 4,000 ft. to start ELT search.

Determining the Maximum Possibility Area No wind endurance Flight level winds: 330/20 Aircraft Speed: 100 Kts Endurance: 2 Hours LKP 40NM 200 NM Wind vector Take the radius of the endurance of the aircraft (possible range from last known position, LKP), and offset it by the current wind velocity times the endurance. Corrected for wind Maximum possibility area

Probability Area Where was the last point where RADAR had the aircraft identified? Is there an ELT? Was there a flight plan (even if not on file with the FAA)? Dead reckoning from LKP and heading Reports of sightings Other aircraft People living along the intended route of flight Usually based on interviews with family and friends. Habits are important. Not necessarily a written flight plan. It could be a report of what the pilot planned to do or would usually do. Many pilots follow interstates, roads, and railroads. Weather effects.

Narrowing the Probability Area Flight plan Weather information National Track Analysis Program data Airports along the intended flight track Aircraft performance Pilots flying habits Radar coverage as a limiting factor Nature of terrain along the flight track Position reports — fuel stops, etc. Most likely within 5 miles of intended track Interviews and phone calls.

Search Priorities Areas of bad weather Low clouds and poor visibility Areas where weather was not as forecast High terrain Areas not covered by radar Reports of low flying aircraft Survival factors Radio contacts or MAYDAY calls The IC will assess the conditions and facts to determine the priorities for search.

Probability of Detection (POD) POD expressed as a “percent” search object was detected Four interrelated factors used to calculate: Track Spacing Search Visibility Search Altitude Type of Terrain Cumulative POD calculated using a chart “Effectiveness” must also be considered 9.2.4 Objective 9.4 – Discuss the importance of proper execution of search patterns. Crew, training, fatigue also contribute to the POD.

POD Table 9.2.3 Objective 9.3 – Given a POD table, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of various search altitudes and speeds over the three major types of terrain. Visibility, altitude and track spacing all directly affect your ability to spot the target (POD).

POD Chart - detail 60 500 Feet 0.5 nm 35% 60% 75% 1.0 20 35 50 1.5 15   0.5 nm 35% 60% 75% 1.0 20 35 50 1.5 15 25 40 700 Feet 40% 80% 55 1,000 Feet 65% 85% 30 45 OPEN, FLAT TERRAIN SEARCH ALTITUDE (AGL) Track Spacing SEARCH VISIBILITY 1 mi 2 mi 3 mi 4 mi 2.0 10 60

Cumulative POD Chart 5-10% 15 11-20% 20 25 21-30% 30 35 45 Previous POD 5-10% 15 11-20% 20 25 21-30% 30 35 45 31-40% 40 45 50 60 41-50% 50 55 60 65 70 51-60% 60 65 65 70 75 80 61-70% 70 70 75 80 80 85 90 71-80% 80 80 80 85 85 90 90 95 80+% 85 85 90 90 90 95 95 95 95+ 5-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 80+% The cumulative POD increases with each repeated search of an area. POD For This Search

QUESTIONS?