Value Estimate for the ILC Superconducting Modules and High Level RF Wilhelm Bialowons, Norihito Ohuchi and Kenji Saito · GDE, Shigeki Fukuda · KEK, Raymond S. Larsen and Michael L. Neubauer · SLAC, Richard P. Stanek · FNAL et al January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Master Outline Introduction Costing Rules High Level RF Cost Estimate Cryomodule Cost Estimate Summary January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Introduction RDR Costing Guidelines March 11, 2006 High technology: Items such as cavities, cryomodules, and rf power sources, where there will be interest in developing expertise in all three regions, should be estimated separately for manufacture by each region. Costs should be provided for the total number of components … January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Costing Rules value is world market price if exists One common estimate of the “value” and labor including site dependent cost is made. The definition of the “value” is: Cost estimate of the construction cost but no preparation cost. Cost estimate on the basis of a world wide call for tender, i.e. the value of an item is the world market price if it exists. The selection criterion is the best price for the best quality. One vender supplies the total number of deliverables. Two vendors for the same package could be chosen for risk minimization. Then the parts depend on the bids. If necessary parametric cost estimate is used for scaling of the cost, i.e. for cost improvement. The cost improvement is defined by the following equation: P = P1 Na where P is the total price of N units, P1 is the first unit price and a the slope of the curve related to learning. The slope a is for large N also the ratio of the last unit price PN and the average unit price <P>. No tax is included. No escalation is used. The fixed date is January 2, 2007. No contingency is calculated. The risk will be analyzed separately. One currency with fixed exchange rates is used. The fixed exchange rates are: 1 M€ = 1.2 M$ = 1.44 Oku¥. Fixed raw material prices, i.e. for copper, steel and niobium, and fixed prices for power are used. The fixed prices are: Electrical work C/W = $ 0.1/kWh (incl. supply cost), Copper C/m = $ 1000/100 kg (up to factor three higher for degassed copper), Black steel C/m = $ 0.6 /kg (for stainless and magnet steel up to factor three higher). The external labor is included in the value. Internal (institute) labor will be estimated in person hours (1 person year = 1700 person hours). The EDIA[1] is included in the item cost. [1] In the U.S. EDIA is the acronym for Engineering, Design, Inspection and Administration. Industry calls this non-recurring engineering (NRE). value is world market price if exists P = P1Na, where P is the total price of N units 1 M€ = 1.2 M$ January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

High Level RF Value Estimate Collaborators and Contributors KEK: S. Fukuda (Asia Technical Co-Chair & HLRF POC) H. Hayano, T. Shidara, M. Akemoto FNAL: C. Jensen, B. Chase, N. Solyak, O. Nezhevenko, R. Reid, J. Leibfritz, E. Heudem SLAC: R. Larsen (Americas Technical Co-Chair) C. Adolphsen, M. Neubauer, C. Nantista, C. Corvin, R. Cassel, DESY: Contacts W. Bialowons, L. Lillje, S. Choroba, S. Simrock (LLRF) January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Outline HLRF Value Estimate High Level RF Sums Overview 10 MW Main Linac Station American HLRF Cost Estimate Cost Methodology Learning Curves European HLRF Cost Estimate Comparison between XFEL and TDR Supplement cost of the High Level RF Material List and Work Break Down Structure Cost Results for 10 MW System by Region Conclusion for HLRF Cost Estimate January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

HLRF Top Level Sums Global Design Effort January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Total HLRF Systems = M$ 660 Global Design Effort January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

10 MW Linac Stations Global Design Effort Penetrations: Cable & Plumbing Waveguide LLRF, Controls, Protection Racks Charger Main Modulator HV Pulse Transformer Horizontal Klystron LCW Chiller AC Switchgear Waveguide Distribution System Dwg: J. Liebfritz January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

10 MW L-Band Stations (1) Prototype stations in use at DESY for ~10 years Chosen as Baseline Conceptual Design (BCD) 2004 at Snowmass Dual tunnel model eliminates long expensive HV cable plant Modulator, Charger, Pulse Transformer Cost Model used FNAL design most recent costs updated to 2006. Vendors in Europe & US built small quantities all items. Learning curves applied to extrapolate to mass production Klystron Multi-beam tube (MBK) prototypes built by three companies in Japan, France, US provide limited cost information for mass production SLAC experts constructed bottom-up new factory model with cost recovery modeled into mass production. January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

10 MW L-Band Stations (2) Waveguide Distribution System Complex and expensive based on current off-the-shelf components Circulators and tuners on every cavity, hybrids drive cost Cost model is bottom up-using TESLA approach but some optimization of designs assumed Quotes from industry in 2 regions plus European lab estimate Controls, Protection and Infrastructure Conventional HV, LV distribution based on US RSMeans COTS pricing for quantities Protection model based on bottom up of conventional COTS Programmable Logic Controllers, power supplies, vacuum etc. Some component pricing obtained from Asia for comparison Learning curves applied in all cases Budgetary quotes obtained from 3 Regions, vendors wherever possible to compare with bottom-up January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Klystron Learning Curve c.f. Industry “Learning Curve Components” for an 88 % curve fit to the Klystron Factory Model Labor LC=80% Material LC=95% Other u Periodic Costs are rate dependent Klystron Cost Other Periodic Costs Tooling Fixturing Automation Indirect Labor Cleaning Plating Supplies Utilities Leasing January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

CPI VKS-7964M Learning Curve Example Snowmass 2005 “RF source selection for the ILC” Wright, Bohlen, Lenci, Balkcum L = 83 %, a = 0.73 !! L = <P2N> / <PN> Costs increased when rate was reduced Lowest cost at max production rate January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Comparison between XFEL and TESLA Cost The ratio can be explained by: Escalation (2000-2006 13 %) Increase of raw material prices (Cu Index price ~ $10/ kg) Additional experience L = 88 % Main Linac RF System XFEL TESLA Supplement N P / M€ P/N/M€ Ratio 29 69.81* 2.407 26 47* 1.808 1.332  4/3 N number of items, P total price * without Institutional Labor January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Material List (Scaled TESLA Cost) January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

WBS for HLRF HLRF for ML: M$ 650.24 Global Design Effort January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort

Cost Results for HLRF by Region Note: RF Dist’n no’s from Asia & Europe scaled for CC#20 9-8-9 model Some components have no Mfg base in Asia January 10, 2007 ILC MAC Meeting Global Design Effort