Mikhail A. Molchanov Regionalism and multivectorism in Eurasia: The strange case of Ukraine Prepared for the ISA's 57th Annual Convention March 16th - 19th, 2016, Atlanta, Georgia

Ukraine between East and West The lack of consistency in foreign policy Pro-West Staunch US ally (Iraq; NATO-Ukraine Council) “Return to Europe” since 1991 Pro-Russian CIS member; headed organization in 2003 and 2014 Joint military exercises with Russia until 2014 CIS trade - 35–45 per cent of Ukraine’s exports in 2000–2014 “Like a weathercock, changed foreign policy priorities” (Nazarbayev, 2014) Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

The promise of multivectorism Multivectorism as an adaptation strategy membership in one regional community should not preclude same country’s membership in another regional community risk avoidance in foreign policy External liberalism co-exists with internal nationalism and statism Constraints Pre-existing regional interdependence “Anti-alliance” politics has its limits Regionalism: looking for a “family” of nations Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Ethno-linguistic divisions Center-West vs. East-South-East (Donbass) Two ethno-linguistic communities In 1991 - 11.35 million ethnic Russians (22% of the pop-n) – down to 17% by 2001 Russian language –preferred by 60% of pop-n Language question has been a staple in Ukraine’s electoral cycle since 1994 Ukraine’s “European choice” as an anti- Russian project catered to one regional group Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Economic interdependence RF – the largest investor (Cyprus, Netherlands, RF) In 2011, RF took 30% of Ukraine’s total exports of goods (more than the whole of the EU) In 2014 – 22% exports and provided < 30% imports Near 80% of oil and gas consumption are covered by imports (68–75% from RBK Customs Union) Russia absorbed 2/3 of Ukraine’s heavy machine- building exports and 1/2 of all of its machinery exports until 2014 Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Western influences Cultural imperialism Economic dominance Feelings toward the West: ressentiment, envy Economic dominance 91% grads want to work abroad (2014) $167 bln capital flight by 2012 Ukrainian diaspora in the West Canada (1.2 mln), USA (1 mln), UK, Australia, etc. Descendants of OUN/UPA; virulently Russophobic Nationalist lobby dismantled the pragmatic “multivector” orientation of Ukraine’s FP Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

The “Maidan” aftermath Eurasian Union Eurasian Community contributed to 4x growth in trade (2000-2008), RBK +11% (2011-2013) Ukraine desirable but RBK can do without The road to EAEU is now closed European Union Ukraine’s riding of two horses was not helpful Diaspora represented the Eurasian Union as a “geopolitical project;” western gov’ts went along EU-US provoked the showdown; civil war in Donbass The road to the EU is now closed Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Thank you! http://people.stu.ca/~molchan/ @MA_Molchanov molchan@stu.ca Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada