COSMO-RU operational verification in Russia using VERSUS2

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Presentation transcript:

COSMO-RU operational verification in Russia using VERSUS2 Anastasia Bundel and Anatoly Muravyev Roshydromet Rome, 5 September 2011

COSMO-RU7 - basic version for European Russia

MSLP MAM2011 errors NO suspect observation Suspect observation <=10 hPa Up to 900! cases at some steps (~5%) Suspect observation <=12 hPa Up to 200 cases at some steps (~1%)

Station analysis of suspect observations of MSLP

T2m MAM2011, all Russian stations - big errors

T2m MAM2011 time series, all Russian Stations Snow melting period – Big errors New snow melting scheme (Rozinkina and Kazakova) – Improvement!

T2m, station Krasnaya Polyana (Sochi region) Suspect observations? Suspect observations are not present in the report on suspect observations. Even if the suspect observation is set to <=3 degrees C, it does not influence the results

COSMO-RU2.2: Central Russia (Moscow region) and Southern Russia (Sochi region). Comparison with COSMO-RU7

T2m COSMORU 2.2 km, Sochi, station Krasnaya Polyana Bad model value It cannot be deleted from GUI, only manually from MySQL.

T2m COSMO-RU 2.2 and 7 km, Sochi, station Krasnaya Polyana Less overestimating 7 km

T2m in COSMO-RU 7 and 2.2 km, Krasnaya Polyana Method: 1) nearest point 3D optimized ! COSMO-RU 2.2 km is better than COSMO-RU 7 km for Krasnaya Polyana

Wind speed in COSMO-RU 2.2 and 7 km, Krasnaya Polyana

T2m in COSMO-RU 7 and 2.2 km, Moscow Method: 1) nearest point 3D optimized ! COSMO-RU 2.2 km RMSE is even slightly higher than that of COSMO-RU 7 km for Moscow

Our problems with VERSUS and desirable features Function Suspect observations for T2m does not influence the result I cannot delete a time series I cannot delete the data from GUI in Data Availability > Delete Forecast grib data can be found in Data Availability only the first time after logging in VERSUS GUI A possibility to delete verifications from several models at a time would be useful A possibility to plot a time series of several models would be useful

Conclusions and Plans A new snow-melting scheme developed by Rozinkina and Kazakova considerably improves T2m during the snow melting period. COSMO-RU 2.2 km for the Sochi region (Krasnaya Polyana) provides better T2m forecasts, less bias in wind speed, but slightly worse wind speed RMSE compared to the 7-km version. COSMO-RU 2.2 km for Moscow provides higher T2m RMSE compared to the 7-km version. 6-h precipitation and cloud observation data will be soon added. Then, conditional verification for Russia will be made routinely. Weather type classification will be urgently needed for the Sochi region.

Thank you for your attention!