HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES AFL-CIO 2014 Election Night Survey.

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Presentation transcript:

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES AFL-CIO 2014 Election Night Survey

Methodology Public survey conducted by phone (landline and cell) on November 4 among 803 voters in Senate battleground states. States: AK, AR, CO, GA, IA, KS, KY, LA, MI, NC, and NH. Union member survey conducted by phone November 3 and 4 among 1,720 AFL-CIO members nationwide who voted in the 2014 elections. Base sample of 800 US members. 600 members interviewed in Senate battleground states. 600 members interviewed in gubernatorial BG states (AK, AZ, CO, CT, FL, HI, IL, KS, MA, ME, MI, WI). Margins Of Error: Voters in Senate BG states ±3.5 percentage points US union members ±3.2 percentage points Senate BG union members ±3.9 percentage points Gubernatorial BG union members ±3.4 percentage points

Vote in Senate Battlegrounds 11434a Q.5, 11434b Q.4 ALL VOTERS FROM B (47/49), UNION FROM A (SENATE BG) All voters Union members

Little Confidence in Republicans in Congress How much confidence do you have in Republicans in Congress on this? (voters in Senate BG states) Improving the economy 11434b Q.12, 11 Looking out for middle-class families Just 29% feel that Republicans have a clear plan for creating jobs and strengthening the economy.

Voters in Senate Battlegrounds Say Incomes Are Falling Behind, Want Wages Increased Income vs Cost of Living View of Raising Wages/Salaries (voters in Senate BG states) Good because it improves people’s standard of living, boosts economy by putting money in people’s pockets Bad because it increases prices for consumers and costs jobs My income is going up faster than cost of living My income is staying even with cost of living My income is falling behind cost of living 11434b Q.9,10

Public’s Agenda For Congress Support for Proposals Next Congress Might Consider (voters in Senate BG states) Union members Increase funding for public schools from preschool through college 78% 19% Increasing taxes on corporate overseas profits, to ensure pay as much as on US profits 81% 14% Increase Social Security benefits (high-income people pay S.S. taxes on all wages 71% 22% 11434b Q.17, 11434a SENATE , UNION MEMBERS (SENATE BG FROM A) Raising taxes on wealthy/ corps. to fund priorities (education, job training, etc) 65% 30% Raising federal minimum wage to $10.10 per hour 69% 28% Ending tax loopholes that encourage U.S. companies to send jobs overseas 69% 28% Comprehensive immigration reform including path to citizenship 58% 33%

Voters Reject Key Elements of GOP Agenda Support for Proposals Next Congress Might Consider (voters in Senate BG states) Union members Reducing regulations on financial institutions and investment banks 35% 50% Raising the Social Security retirement age 11434b Q.17, SENATE BG FROM A 17% 78% Raising the age at which seniors are eligible for Medicare 12% 82% Cutting the Medicaid health program 14% 79%

Battleground Voters Oppose Fast-Track Agreement The Obama administration is negotiating several new trade agreements, including one with 12 Pacific nations called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Congress will soon decide whether to give the president fast-track authority for these negotiations, which would mean that once the administration's negotiations are completed, Congress must take an up-or-down vote on the agreement as a whole, and could not make any amendments or changes in the agreement. Do you favor or oppose having Congress give the president fast-track authority for a new Pacific trade agreement? Strongly favor Strongly oppose 11434b Q.16 36% FAVOR Somewhat favor 49% OPPOSE Somewhat oppose Not sure

Voters Want GOP to Compromise, Not Stand up to Obama Which comes closer to the approach you would like to see Republicans in Congress take over the next two years? 20% 71% Stick to conservative principles Look for compromises Independents 11434b Q.13 Stick to their conservative principles and stand up to President Obama Look for compromises with President Obama in order to get things done

Investments are a Higher Priority Than Tax Cuts Higher priority for Congress and President What should revenue from closing corporate tax loopholes be used for? Invest in key priorities Reduce budget deficit and invest 11434b Q.14, Q.15 Reduce taxes Reduce tax rate on corpora- tions

Voting for the best candidate Sending a message to Washing-ton Voters Feel Corporate Interests Had Too Much Influence on the Election and Both Parties Did corporations have too much, too little, or the right amount of influence over this year’s elections? “Politicians do too much to support Wall Street financial interests and not enough to help average Americans.” 11434b Q.18, Q.19 Agree Voting for the best candidate Too much Best candidate Sending a message to Washing-ton Right amount Disagree Too little

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES AFL-CIO 2014 Election Night Survey