Monetary Policy Report 2008:1

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Presentation transcript:

Monetary Policy Report 2008:1 13 February 2008

Repo rate raised by 0. 25 percentage points to 4 Repo rate raised by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25 per cent to attain the inflation target A repo rate around 4.25 procent over the coming year The Riksbank’s view of the future repo rate path remains largely the same as in December

Repo rate raised Good economic activity in Sweden High cost pressures – inflation exceeds the target

Good economic activity Deviation from the trend, per cent Hours Employment GDP Note. Percentage deviation from the HP trend. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Inflation exceeds the target Annual percentage change CPI CPIX Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Unit labour costs for the ecnomomy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Source: Prospera Research AB Inflation expectations have risen Expected inflation in 2 years, per cent Purchasing managers Social partners Money market agents Source: Prospera Research AB

Greater uncertainty Financial turmoil Subdued growth in the United States

Continued financial turmoil The difference between interbank rates and government bond rates, basis points Euro area (Germany) Sweden USA United Kingdom Note. Refers to the difference between 3-month interbank rates and 3-month treasury bills. Source: The Riksbank

Falling share prices Index, 1 January 1999 = 100 OMX 30, Sweden S&P 500, USA DAGS 30, Germany Source: Reuters EcoWin

Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and the Riksbank Weak GDP growth in the United States in 2008 Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in the United States in 2008 on different occasions The Riksbank Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb 2007 2008 Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and the Riksbank

Good growth in the world as a whole GDP in the world and Sweden, annual percentage change Note. Calendar-adjusted data. Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Monetary policy considerations High cost pressures – Inflation above the target Financial turmoil Subdued growth in the United States

Interest rate path A repo rate around 4.25 per cent over the coming year Inflation close to the target at the end of next year Subdued economic activity in Sweden in the future

Risks in the interest rate forecast + Higher inflationary pressures from abroad + Higher wages and lower productivity + Higher food and energy prices Financial turmoil worsens Weaker international economic activity

Summary Good economic activity in Sweden – high cost pressures Greater uncertainty – subdued growth in the United States and financial turmoil Interest rate raised to attain the inflation target of 2 per cent The Riksbank’s view of the future repo rate path remains largely the same as in December

The interest rate path is a forecast and not a promise Per cent, quarterly average Repo rate Mar 03, Mar 04, Mar 05, Mar 06, Mar 07, Mar 08, Mar 09, Mar 10, Mar 11 Source: The Riksbank