Hotel Investment in Asia Pacific Scott Hetherington Executive Vice President - Asia scott.hetherington@ap.joneslanglasalle.com April 17, 2002
Culture
Comparison of Transaction Activity
Experience
Asia Pacific Hotel Transactions Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Hotel Investment Cycle – Asia 1 Early Downturn 2 Late Downturn 3 Trough 4 Early Upturn 5 Late Upturn 6 Peak 6 6 Seoul 5 1 Bangkok Jakarta, Manila Phuket Mumbai Kuala Lumpur Auckland, Gold Coast Shanghai, Brisbane 2 4 Melbourne, New Delhi Beijing, Cairns Bali Hong Kong 3 Singapore, Sydney Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Outlook for 2002 and Beyond - Trading Hotel occupancy in Asia to stabilize, growth in ADR in Q4 2002. Over supply in Shanghai, Mumbai, Beijing, Kuala Lumpur and Melbourne in 4 & 5 star segment. Over supply in Hong Kong mid market. Over supply in Auckland due to serviced apartments development Thai hotel markets to recover. Chinese tour groups to boost occupancies in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand. Sydney to stabilize in 2002 and grow strongly thereafter due to residential conversions. Brisbane to continue strongest growth in 2002. Cairns to benefit from the launch of Australian Airlines in 2002.
Outlook for 2002 and Beyond - Investment Hotel values to stabilize in Asia after falling 10-15% during 2001. Hotel values in NSW and Queensland to grow by 10%. Further sales of assets and debt in Indonesia by IBRA and Holdiko. Japanese investors to become active sellers. India to present opportunities as portfolios are restructured. Significant level of capital still wishing to invest in the Asia Pacific region. Buying opportunities in most countries, but in particular Australia, Japan and Indonesia.