Presenters: John Knaff and Liqun Ma April 15, 2015 SPSRB Decision Brief on Declaring “S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP) ” Operational Presenters: John Knaff and Liqun Ma April 15, 2015

Integrated Product Team (IPT) IPT Lead: John Knaff (STAR) IPT Backup Lead: Liqun Ma (OSPO) NESDIS Team: STAR: John Knaff OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC products PAL) OSD: Tom Schott NDE: Dylan Powell, Wei Yu Data Center: Phil Jones Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Truc Nguyen (SSAI), Scott Longmore(CIRA), John Dostalek(CIRA) User Team Lead: Mark DeMaria, Michael Brennan, and Jack Beven (NHC) Brian Strahl (JTWC) Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP

Requirement(s) Meet SPSRB User Request #1009-0017 from National Hurricane Center Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the S-NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. User community National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Dept. of Defense NWS Offices Benefit to user Continuity of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters NOAA Mission Goal supported: Weather and Water Commerce and Transportation Mission priority: Optimal Give a high level summary of the requirement(s) being addressed by this project. If this request is supporting requirements documentation, list them along with a short summary on why it was related to this original user request. For example, this project may be addressing a SPSRB User Request. If this is the case, list the request number and a short summary of the request. 1998 – 2003 User Requests are found at http://projects.osd.noaa.gov/spsrb/ in the “Archived Request List” tab in the main menu. 2004 – Present User Requests are found at https://requesttracker.osd.noaa.gov/admin_login.asp. To access the user request list, log or register as a new users. If this project went through the Initial Technical Assessment and Proposal for Product Development steps within the SPSRB process, identify the date and summarize the SPSRB decision. If it did not go through these steps, eliminate these sub-bullets Other Requirements: An example might be a user may have requested a product where the requirement is in the NPOESS IORD. Another example, is that it may support NWS’s Science and Technology Improvement Plan (STIP). Summarize all primary and secondary users that will benefit from this product development effort. List the NOAA mission goal(s) this product development supported. The goals are: Ecosystems, Climate, Weather and Water, and Commerce & Transportation. Goal-wide goals are: Homeland Security, NOAA Management, Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite Acquisitions, Polar Satellites Acquisitions, Satellite Services, Facilities, Administrative Services, IT Services, and Ship and Aircraft Acquisition and Operations. Mission priority is normally found on the user request. The definitions are: Mission Critical: Cannot meet operational mission objectives without this requirement. Mission Optimal: Requirement not critical but would provide significant improvement to operational capability. Mission Enhancing: Requirement needed to enhance state of knowledge or assess potential for operational capability. AS: Updated last 4 bullets from Project Plan

Capabilities Assessment Current Operational Capabilities Requested Capabilities Proposed Operational Capabilities Satellite Source (s) NOAA polar-orbiting satellites (AMSU) S-NPP and JPSS (ATMS) S-NPP (ATMS) Product Name AMSU-based TC products ATMS-based TC products Accuracy Intensity MAE of 13.5 kt / 9 hPa. Wind radii MAE of 32, 18, 10 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively. Same or better than current AMSU-based products. Same as requested Latency 3 hours after synoptic time Timeliness New product generated every 6 hours, updated every 2 hours Coverage Global N. Atlantic and N.E. Pacific tropical cyclone basins Resolution Point values for intensity and radii, 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds Other attributes

Product Deliverable Details Product Type and Number Fiscal Year (FY) Product Delivery/Trackin g Name Environmental Observational Parameters Satellites Sensors N # E R T O Tailoring Options or Comments FY15 S-NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products Tropical cyclone maximum wind S-NPP ATMS 1 Formats: text Coverage areas: global Resolutions: N/A Update cycle: every 6 h minimum sea level pressure radii of 34 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrants radii of 50 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrants radii of 64 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW quadrants balanced horizontal winds at 1000 to 200 mb within 600 km of the storm center 2 Formats: netCDF, png Resolutions: 0.2 degree lat/lat Kept for reference 5 N=New E=Enhanced R=Replacement T=Tailored O=Other 5

Project Milestones and Key Tasks Product Delivery/Tracking Name: S-NPP microwave sounder-based tropical cyclone products MAY 11 (MAY 11) (MAY 11) (MAY 11) (MAY 11): Development Phase Begins MAY 11: IPT Lead informed to begin product development MAY 11: Begin adapting current AMSU algorithms to MIRS retrieval datasets OCT 11: NPP launch, begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones JUL 12: Begin collecting MIRS ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures, for global tropical cyclones (collecting sample cases, real-time ingest expected Jul 2013) JUL 12: Initial Archive Requirements identified JUL 12: Quality Monitoring Concept Defined JUL 12: Long-term Maintenance Concept Defined JUL 12: Preliminary Design Review AUG 12: Development processing system defined OCT 12: Test case processed MAR 13: Critical Design Review MAR 13: Final Archive requirements identified APR 13: Develop pre-ops retrieval algorithms (using available NPP ATMS sounding test cases) APR 13: Code is prepared for implementation MAY13: Software Code Review OCT 13: Deliver Algorithm Package to NDE DEC 13 (JUL 13) (JUN 13) (MAR 13) (MAR 13): Pre-operational Phase Begins DEC 13: The TC DAP tested and evaluated within NDE SADIE, algorithm adjustments made JUN 14: TC products run on the NDE System Integration for 2013/14 Atlantic hurricane season JUN 14: Code transitions to operations; all documentation is complete APR 15: Brief SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status APR 15: Brief SPSRB capability is ready to go operational Apr 15 (OCT 13) (OCT 13) (AUG 13) (AUG 13): Operational Phase Begins APR 15: SPSRB declares product operational SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages OSD updates Satellite Products database AS – updated “Brief SPSRB…” bullets to APR 15 6 6

Quality of the Product Algorithm AMSU-based Intensity and wind radii algorithms have been running operationally at NCEP since 2003 (NOAA and Met-Op polar orbiting satellites). AMSU-based balanced wind algorithms have been running operationally since 2005 (NOAA and Met-Op polar orbiting satellites). The algorithm will be updated to use the operational S-NPP MIRS sounding products instead of the Goldberg/Barnet statistical retrievals. LM: Added this slide

Quality of the Product Core Product - TC forecast ATCF file TC-sh142015_v1r5_npp_s20150227120000000000_e20150227140000000000_c201502271614550_14S_FIX SH, 14, 201502270940, 30, ATMS, IPR, , 2437S, 6640E, , 1, 73, 2, 973, 2, MEAS, 34, NEQ , 213, 213, 157, 157, , , , , 2, 91, , S, NSOF, OPS, , , , , , , 973, , SNPP01, 34, NEQ , 213, 213, 157, 157, , , , , , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 a-deck LM: Added this slide

Quality of the Product Core Product – 2-D wind LM: Added this slide

Quality of the Product Verification Dataset Verification procedures Pre-operational MIRS ATMS data from 2012 (obtained from NESDIS/STAR) 249 intensity estimates, 116/85/42 estimates of R34/R50/R64, respectively Quasi-real-time runs performed at CIRA (Aug 2014-present) 241 intensity estimates and 94/67/47 estimates of R34/R50/R64, respectively Verification procedures Compared NTCP estimates to intensity and radii estimates in the Best Track database Ideally use only cases with aircraft reconnaissance data, but sample too small Best track radii estimates for WP, SH, and IO were not used due to quality issues (no aircraft reconnaissance data in those basins) Verification results – Complete sample Intensity (Vmax and Pmin) estimates very close to meeting goal mean absolute errors (MAE) All radii MAE are 1.5-2.5 times larger than goal Positive biases of radii estimates suggest systematic over-prediction of R34, R50, and R64 Vmax (kt) Pmin (hPa) R34 (nmi) R50 (nmi) R64 (nmi) MAE 13.9 9.9 42 28 27 GOAL (MAE) 13.5 10.0 32 18 10 Bias -1.6 2.5 22 14 13 N 525 234 145 89 AS: Added this slide

Quality of the Product Homogeneous comparison to AMSU-based products NTCP’s performance compared to that of operational AMSU product over a homogeneous sample Provides a more fair comparison of the products, as AMSU validation was done over a different, larger sample Verification Results – Homogeneous Sample NTCP and operational AMSU mean absolute errors (MAE) for Vmax and Pmin are similar NTC radii estimate MAE are still larger than operational AMSU product Near-TC MIRS ATMS temperature and moisture profiles are significantly different from statistical AMSU profiles – more so than anticipated CAL/VAL project currently underway to investigate differences in retrievals, re-derive product coefficients for ATMS MIRS, and recommend corrections to be implemented in the NTCP within the year (J. Dostalek) Vmax (kt) Pmin (hPa) R34 (nmi) R50 (nmi) R64 (nmi) NTCP MAE 14.6 10.2 51 35 42 AMSU MAE 13.9 9.5 29 16 22 N 311 101 60 36 AS: Added this slide

Quality of the Product Verification of Operational Implementation NPP TC products generated at NDE PE-2 are compared with those produced at CIRA The products from CIRA and NDE PE-2 are identical LM: Added this slide From CIRA From OSPO

Plan of Operations Product Retirement Plan Archive Plan No products will be retired as a result of transition to operations of NTCP product Archive Plan NTCP products in ATCF format will be archived at NHC/JTWC NTCP products in NetCDF will be archived at NCDC. Documentation Update CIRA delivered ATBD, SMM and EUM OSPD modified them with OSPO NDE operational environments

Plan of Operations Long Term Maintenance Plan Science support of product provided by CIRA Scientists 24 x 7 technical support of product generation, distribution, and monitoring to be provided by OSPO NDE support personnel Quality Monitoring Plan The NTCP Product files include overall quality control flags and quality summary level metadata NDE Products Monitoring Tool will be available soon. The NPP TC algorithm does not have automatic product monitoring tools. Users from NHC, JTWC and developers from CIRA will keep watch on this product closely, especially during hurricane season.

User Readiness (1/2) Data Access Real-time data (ATCF) will be put on NDE DDS for NHC/CPHC/JTWC users. Real-time data (ATCF) and images are also provided to users on the ESPC ftp site ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/TCFP/NTCP Real-time data (NetCDF) will be sent to NCDC by NDE DDS

User Readiness (2/2) Acceptance of Product Training NHC, CPHC, JTWC Already use AMSU-TC product generated from NCEP. Already reviewed test data. Training User manuals will be made available to all users NHC/CPHC/JTWC No specific training from OSPO is required. Users have been using current AMSU TC product for years. ESPC Operator Training has been provided by NDE team for monitoring the NDE system

Satellite Product End-to-End Documentation System (SPEEDS) Product Name: S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products Projected Date to Go Operational: May, 2015 Product Description: The S-NPP Microwave Sounder-based TC Products algorithm provides estimates of tropical cyclone intensity and surface wind radii for 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind thresholds. Intensity and structure estimates are calculated from a combination of ATMS-based temperature and moisture soundings, the hydrostatic relationship, and statistics. Product System: S-NPP Data Exploitation (NDE) Platform: NDE PE-1 Satellite(s): S-NPP Instrument(s) used: ATMS Channels: N/A Horizontal Resolution: 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds Vertical Resolution: N/A Frequency: every 6 hours at synoptic times , updated every 2 hours Coverage: Global Accuracy: Intensity MAE of 14.0 kt / 10 hPa. Wind radii MAE of 42, 65, 68 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively. Formats: ATCF and NetCDF Web Page: N/A Product Oversight Panel: ICAPOP Users: NHC/JTWC Archive: NCDC AS: Updated accuracy, channels N/A (uses sounder)

SPSRB User Request Status Has the SPSRB user request been fully satisfied? TC intensity estimates(Vmax and Pmin) are satisfied radii coefficients will be corrected before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1st, 2015).

SPSRB Decision General comments User input STAR senior representative input OSPO senior representative input OSD senior representative input Consensus decision reached? Yes: summarize decision No: summarize direction IPT should not fill out this slide. It’s a place holder for the SPSRB decision.