Increase Your Prediction Accuracy and Achieve Maximum Student Success Paul Gore Xavier University gorep@xavier.edu Burt Rubenstein Jenzabar burt.rubenstein@jenzabar.com

Overview Psychologist with background in K-20 student success, vocational psychology and higher education Faculty for 17 years 3 years as Director of Career Transitions Research Dept. at ACT 7 years as Director of Institutional Research Director of graduate programs FYE Advisory Board, Journal Editor 2013-2014 ACE Leadership Fellow – Montana State University (higher education financing and student success agenda) Active in secondary and higher education consulting for 14 years in the US and 9 foreign countries Worked on development and implementation of 3 non-cognitive measures of student success with dozens of institutions

Evidence of non-cognitives in academic success and retention Overview The role of Non-cognitive Factors In Student Success Evidence of non-cognitives in academic success and retention Assessment tool and use case models This presentation will describe the role of noncognitive factors in student success. Evidence of the role of noncognitives in both academic success and retention will be explored. An assessment tool and use case models will be described that take advantage of data at the institution, group/classroom, and individual student levels.

Student Progression Fail to Complete High School Fail to Attend College Fail to Complete college Is this what we want to call Success?

Student Progression Retention Rates Private Universities 80% Public Universities 70% 2-Year Colleges 50% First Gen 30%

Risk Prediction and Mitigation Applicants Risk Mitigation Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams

Risk Prediction and Mitigation Applicants My friends were all going to college so I went too I just don’t know how to study College is so much harder than high school – I was too stressed out I didn’t feel welcomed or involved on campus I don’t know what happened. I never paid attention in my high school classes! Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams

Predicting Student Success Demographics (opportunity structure) Academic ability/aptitude (ACT/SAT/GPA) Finances Motivation Lack of direction Lack of knowledge Life demands Self confidence Campus and academic engagement

Predicting Student Success  © 2015 Jenzabar, Inc. Predicting Student Success ‘In addition to content knowledge and academic skills, students must develop sets of behaviors, skills, attitudes and strategies that are crucial to academic performance in their classes…’ Noncognitive Skills ‘In addition to content knowledge and academic skills, students must develop sets of behaviors, skills, attitudes and strategies that are crucial to academic performance in their classes…’ Farrington et al. (2012) p.2

Predicting Student Success GPA 15 – 20% College Success 5 – 8% Standardized Achievement 10 – 15% Non-cognitive Skills Leuwerke, Gore, Cole, & Reese, (2011)

Predicting Student Success Outperforming College Success At risk Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams

Predicting Student Success High Resiliency High Engagement Outperforming College Success At risk Low Educational Commitment Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams

Predicting Student Success If non-cognitive factors reliably predict student outcomes (and they do) And you can reliably measure incoming student non-cognitive strengths and weaknesses (and you can) And you already have the programs and services that can be mapped to those strengths and weaknesses (and you do) Why wouldn’t you seek to align non-cognitive assessment and other predictive data with existing programs and services to promote student success?

College Readiness Inventory (CRI) Fall 2015 49 Items 7 Scales Psychometrically Sound Predictive model enhancement FYE topic focus Student advising and goal setting Targeted outreach and intervention Risk mitigation Predictive validity study underway Inventory: 49 Items 7 Scales Psychometrically Sound Predictive validity study underway Ready for use in Fall 2015 Institution, Group/Class, and Student-level Analytics Uses include: Predictive model enhancement FYE topic focus Student advising and goal setting Targeted outreach and intervention Risk mitigation

College Readiness Inventory (CRI) Academic Engagement Academic Self-Efficacy Campus Engagement Educational Commitment Institutional Valence Life Complexity/Roles Resilience

Non-cognitive Interventions Use institutional data to allocate resources across programs Use data to inform classroom level teaching and interventions Use data to inform cohort level needs Use data to intervene with students: Make an ACTION PLAN

CRI: Private 4 Year Univ Eastern Mennonite University – Private four-year university, with graduate and seminary programs in Harrisonburg, VA 1,500 students.  77% retention rate. 64% graduation rae.

CRI: Priv. Rel Afil. 4 Year Located in Fort Wayne, Indiana, the University of Saint Francis is a private, Catholic university enrolling 2,300 students in majors ranging from the liberal arts, to the creative arts, to the health sciences. 70% retention. 54% overall graduation rate.

CRI: Public 2 Year Bay Community College is a public two-year college located in Escanaba, Michigan.  2,305 students. 61% retention. 21% graduation.

CRI: Priv. Rel Afil. 4 Year Grove City College is a Christian four-year private liberal arts college in Grove City, Pennsylvania, about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh.  2,491 undergraduates. 88% retention rate. 82% graduation rate.

CRI: Student Examples Grove City College is a Christian four-year private liberal arts college in Grove City, Pennsylvania, about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh.  2,491 undergraduates. 88% retention rate. 82% graduation rate.

CRI: Student Examples Grove City College is a Christian four-year private liberal arts college in Grove City, Pennsylvania, about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh.  2,491 undergraduates. 88% retention rate. 82% graduation rate.

CRI: Student Examples Grove City College is a Christian four-year private liberal arts college in Grove City, Pennsylvania, about 65 miles north of Pittsburgh.  2,491 undergraduates. 88% retention rate. 82% graduation rate.

Next Steps Complete predictive modeling analysis Scale institutional use Institutional reports Student level reports Recommendations Staff/advisor training Consult with institutions to develop use-case models that take advantage of existing retention predictors as well as non-cognitive factors

Thank You Paul Gore Xavier University gorep@xavier.edu Burt Rubenstein Jenzabar burt.rubenstein@jenzabar.com

CRI Scales Scale Name Academic Engagement Academic Self-Efficacy Measures: Sample Items Academic Engagement academic engagement and global student success behaviors Sometimes I miss assignment deadlines. I spend at least two hours a day studying for my classes. Academic Self-Efficacy student's self-confidence in his or her ability to meet academic milestones I'm confident I can earn a 3.0 or higher grade point average. I'm concerned about my note-taking skills. Campus Engagement student's interest/intent in getting involved in co-curricular campus activities I don't spend any more time on campus than I have to. I spend time with other students outside of the classroom. Educational Commitment the perceived importance of a college degree School is my number one priority right now. Earning a degree is important for my career success. Institutional Valence student's affinity/connection to this particular institution This college was not my first choice. I'm happy with my decision to enroll at [Institution Name]. Life Roles complexity/demands of other important life roles I have other obligations that compete with my course work. I am able to devote all of my time to college. Resilience how well students are able to deal with adverse life events and stress Most people would describe me as a "survivor." I'm easily overwhelmed.