Russia-China relations in Central Asia and the SCO Prepared for the conference Regional Perspectives for China and its Neighbours, Leiden University, the Confucius Institute, 5-6 Jan. 2017 Mikhail A. Molchanov Russia-China relations in Central Asia and the SCO

Research questions What is the basis of Sino-Russian cooperation? Is there any pattern to the SCO evolution? What are the challenges to the Sino-Russian leadership of the SCO? What is the SCO impact on Central Asia and the larger Eurasian region? What are the most likely scenarios for the SCO evolution? Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Theories and definitions Regionalism in Eurasia is Politically steered, top-down process Economic, political (re)integration of the postcommunist states under the Sino-Russian leadership Reaction to economic and security challenges As much about identity as it is about political economy Theories IR realism: an update on classic alliance politics; Russia’s efforts neoimperialist in nature IR liberalism: a stepping stone to a global market NR (Hettne; Shaw/Söderbaum): response to globalization; “third wave”; alternative to neoliberalism Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

SCO’s emergence and growth From confidence building measures - the “Shanghai Five” forum Russia led the post-Sov states, had know-how Since 2001 (SCO) - combating terrorism, separatism and extremism 2004 summit – PRC allocates $1bln to the region 2008 SCO Dialogue Partners created 2012-2014 – economic strategy developed 2015- SCO Development Strategy Towards 2025 2016 – India, Pakistan. Iran? Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Russo-Chinese relations today China – main trading partner for RF (2014) Oil deals totaling 665 mln tons over 25 yrs CNPC buys 20% in Yamal LNG project, expands its holdings in oil and gas fields in E. Siberia Ukraine sped Russia’s “pivot to the East” Gas deals alone valued at > $684 billion Xi Jinping: Asian security arrangt with RF, Iran Yet 28% trade drop in 2015, +0.5% in 2016 Skewed trade; RF high-tech weapons only Mistrust persists on the popular, elite levels Demography; FP disconnect; stalled energy deals Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

SCO: The leadership problem RATS functions since 2004, but not very effective; concerns over Afghanistan SCO-CSTO collaboration not institutionalized How to lead the region? PRC: economic cooperation, RF: security PRC lobbies for FTA; Russia opposes Russia stalled the SCO Development Bank Silk Road Economic Belt: $48 bln to C. Asia Ufa summit (2015): SCO-BRICS cooperation? Putin’s “Big Eurasian Partnership” (OBOR, EAEU, SCO and ASEAN) yields to China’s agenda Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Eurasian regionalism: pros & cons New regionalism is a cushion in crises of global capitalism Becomes a factor in provision of regional security Helps unify regional elites Focus on common values (Eastern Orthodoxy-Islam): collectivism, statism, equity, and community Joint opposition to the U.S., neolib-m, humanitarian intervention, R2P Bolsters legitimacy of non-democratic governments; helps regimes’ survival Needs a developmental state to be successful May foster regional rivalry and neohegemonic tendencies Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Conclusions SCO dual leadership is yet to be developed SCO is not an alliance or coalition Competition in Central Asia Geopolitical disconnect: S. Ossetia and Abkhazia vs S. and E. China seas Russia’s influence in Central Asia is on decline SCO was of little help with bilateral border demarcation in C. Asia C. Asians use SCO to balance btn RF and PRC SCO enables China’s peaceful rise, regl dev’t Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada

Thank you! Mikhail A. Molchanov * St. Thomas University, Canada