Michelle Kershner (and Dan Kernler) Elgin Community College Elgin, IL Predicting Success Michelle Kershner (and Dan Kernler) Elgin Community College Elgin, IL Dan Want to follow along on your device? Download the presentation: http://tinyurl.com/AMATYC-T1C

Elgin Community College (ECC) 16,128 students (2014-15) 71% part-time Average age is 27 Dan

Purpose Analyze GPA as a predictor for success Share our updated placement procedure Discuss early results Share your placement procedures that use multiple measures

Our Original Analysis (2010) Binomial logistic regression using COMPASS Algebra score as predictor for course success (C or better) Add ACT Math sub-score and HS Cumulative GPA to regression model Dan

Our Original Analysis (2010) COMPASS Algebra score was a statistically significant predictor. High school GPA significantly and dramatically increased the accuracy of the prediction of success. ACT Math sub-score did not have a unique contribution to the model. Dan

Success by COMPASS in Intermediate Algebra C or better 66% success D, W, or F 57% success Dan 49% success

Success by COMPASS in Intermediate Algebra 10% 30% 53% 81% 92% C or better D, W, or F Dan

Transfer Level Success Consider only introductory transfer level courses: Mth101 Quantitative Literacy Mth102 General Education Statistics Mth110 Math for Elementary Teachers I Mth112 College Algebra Focus on students with a COMPASS Algebra score only. Reported GPA in database (some are weighted)

Success by COMPASS & HS GPA Intermediate Algebra and Introductory Transfer Level Courses Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS Algebra Score 62-65 Transfer Level 58-61 54-57 50-53 Inter. Algebra 46-49 42-45 38-41 HS Cumulative GPA C or better D, W, or F 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Success by COMPASS & HS GPA Intermediate Algebra and Introductory Transfer Level Courses Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS Algebra Score 62-65 25% 30% 63% 83% Transfer Level 58-61 0% 64% 59% 78% 54-57 33% 44% 57% 82% 50-53 50% 69% 79% Inter. Algebra 46-49 17% 38% 88% 42-45 29% 47% 38-41 10% 26% 48% 61% 81% HS Cumulative GPA C or better D, W, or F 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

COMPASS CSEM COMPASS Reference Manual reports a conditional standard error of measurement (CSEM) Can be interpreted similarly to confidence intervals Measures the difference between actual score and expected score if the test were repeated Depends on the score and test (hence conditional) Dan

COMPASS CSEM Dan

COMPASS CSEM Dan

Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS CSEM Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS Algebra Score 62-65 25% 30% 63% 83% Transfer Level 58-61 0% 64% 59% 78% 54-57 33% 44% 57% 82% 50-53 50% 69% 79% Inter. Algebra 46-49 17% 38% 88% 42-45 29% 47% 38-41 10% 26% 48% 61% 81% HS Cumulative GPA C or better D, W, or F Dan 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS CSEM Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS Algebra Score 62-65 Transfer Level 58-61 54-57 50-53 Inter. Algebra 46-49 42-45 38-41 HS Cumulative GPA C or better +10 -10 D, W, or F GPA: 3.6 COMPASS: 50 Dan 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS CSEM Success Rates (C or better) COMPASS Algebra Score 62-65 25% 30% 63% 83% Transfer Level 58-61 0% 64% 59% 78% 54-57 33% 44% 57% 82% 50-53 50% 69% 79% Inter. Algebra 46-49 17% 38% 88% 42-45 29% 47% 38-41 10% 26% 48% 61% 81% HS Cumulative GPA C or better D, W, or F Dan 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Comb. Basic & Int. Algebra Adjusting Placement Two principles: Redefine “College Ready” Accelerate completion of the developmental sequence Basic Algebra Intermediate Algebra College Ready 0-32 38-54 55-100 33-37 Comb. Basic & Int. Algebra COMPASS Algebra Score College Ready Dan Combined Basic & Int. Algebra Cumulative HS GPA 2.5 3.0 2.0 3.5

Adjusting Placement College Ready (Eligible for Mth101, Mth102, Mth110, or Mth112) 55-100 College Ready* 38 - 54 Intermediate Algebra (Mth098) COMPASS Algebra Score 33 - 37 Combined Basic and Int. Algebra (Mth099) 0 - 32 Basic Algebra (Mth096) 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 High School Cumulative GPA * Assuming C or better both semesters of a second-year HS algebra course.

Adjusted Placement Results Fall 2014 – Spring 2016 (4 semesters) 178 students eligible for new rule enrolled 48% took advantage and moved up a level Of those, 76% were successful Interestingly, only 10% of the students eligible for the Combined Basic and Intermediate Algebra moved up Dan

Future Research Why aren’t more students moving up a level? We have recently switched to ALEKS (starting Spring 2017) – will we have similar results? Kris

Want a copy of this presentation? Questions? Want a copy of this presentation? http://tinyurl.com/AMATYC-T1C Want more information? dkernler@elgin.edu