Climate Change Advisor, Views from the Pacific Diane McFadzien, Climate Change Advisor, Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)

Pacific characteristics: Very limited land masses, geographically isolated from larger urban centers, diverse island types (low lying atolls to volcanic islands), relatively small population sizes, limited market sizes, high dependence on natural resources – which all has an implication on vulnerability and adaptive capacity SPREPs mandate in the region is as an intergovernmental organization, established by our member countries to assist members to better manage env resources. Along side active biodiversity, waste management and environmental monitoring and governance programmes, we have a comprehensive climate programme, which provides support in the areas of climate policy; adaptation, mitigation, and also increasing capacity of the regions meteorological services. Given that we have heard a lot about impacts in SIS from our previous presenter, will just touch on some of the observed impacts from the Pacific region. Given the population sizes of some of our member countries, and vast geographic coverage, particularly of the oceans, the capacity of the region is some what limited in terms of being able to monitor impacts. Many of the observations follow closely to both observations captured in the IPCC FAR.

Observed Impacts: Temperature Rise Persistent regional warming trend since 1961 (0.18°C annual), with warmest years on record in the last two decades The frequency of warm days and nights has increased more than three-fold: Rare extremes have risen from 20days/year to 45-80 days/years Sea surface temperatures have also increased across the Pacific (CSIRO 2014) The region has shown persistent regional warning since 1961, showing an average warming of .18 degree Celsius per anum The warmest years on record have been shown in the last two decades The frequency of wrm days and nights have increased more than three fold, with the number of rare extremes more than doubling. Equally important is the fact that it is not just the air surface temperatures that have risen, but observations have shown an increase in sea surface temperatures also, which of course has added implications for marine species.

Observed Impacts: Sea-Level Rise Observed rate of sea-level rise in the western Pacific three times above the global average from 1993-2012 While this may be attributed to mainly to natural variability it shows the high regional vulnerability to sea-level rise Projections of regional future sea-level rise are above global average The observed rate of SLR in the Western Pacific has shown to be three x above global averages. While this is partly due to natural variability, the experience that we have had in this has shown that the region has a high vulnerability to any rises in sea levels. Given that the majority of populations are located in low lying coastal zones, as is most of key infrastructure (such as airports, urban centers and main road ways) the region has a particularly high vulnerability. This is of high concern to our atoll nations in particular, for whom adaptation options are most limited. It should be noted also that for the Pacific region, projections of future sea level rise are also above global average, which is of great concern. Map of rates of change in sea surface height (geocentric sea level) for the period 1993–2012 from satellite altimetry. Source: IPCC AR5 WGI FAQ 13.1, Figure 1

Observed Impacts on Pacific Coral reefs Coral bleaching re-occurrence and severity has increased in the Pacific (CSIRO), 2014) Abundance of reef building corals in rapid decline in pacific regions: 1 - 2% per year for 1968–2004 (AR5 CR) Loss of eco-systems services and impacts on GDP As also mentioned in the previous presentation, the Pacific region too has experienced re-occurant coral bleaching, with the severity of such events increasing. Reef building corals have continued to decline. Increasing bleaching frequency threatens recovery (~10-30 years, Donner et al. 2009) This has a direct impact upon countries GDP’s - Ecosystem services generated by coral reefs alone contribute to on average 5% annual GDP, while local dependencies can be higher (up to 25% in individual countries, Source: IPCC) As heard in yesterdays presentation from the Convention on Biological Diversity, losses to these coral eco-systems of course has had knock on effects in terms of the loss of coastal protection services, direct impacts on food security and the tourism industry on which so many of our member countries depend. Percent of reef locations that experience severe, mild or no bleaching Source: IPCC AR5 WGII Ch5, Figure 5-3

Observed impacts: salt-water intrusion Saltwater intrusion and inundation: Salinisation of limited freshwater resources Risks to agricultural production Negative health effects Risks to food security (IPCC AR5 WGII, Ch5/Ch29) For the Pacific region, water security may be one of the more immediate challenges to the long term viability of some of our members. Not only are members very vulnerable to changes in rain water distribution, but for our atolls in particular, salt water intrusion is already posing a major threat. Source: IPCC AR5 WGII Ch5, Figure 5.5

Observed Impacts – Human Health Increased incidences of vector borne disease – incidences of malaria and dengue has been rising, especially endemic dengue in Samoa, Tonga and Kiribati Health is also impacted by changes to water availability – cholera outbreaks after extreme events Links have been made between increased outbreaks of Ciguatera fish poisoning and temperature increases (IPCC AR5 WGII, Ch29)

Vulnerability to Climatic Extremes Pacific small Islands rank high in relative exposure to tropical cyclones Economic losses by tropical cyclones translate to losses in GDP of 15 -25%, hampering economic development Source: IPCC AR5 WGII Ch29, Table 29.5 As you can see here, the Pacific feature very highly in terms of exposure to extreme events Looking at the table of the top 10 countries in the Asia Pacific region, based on explore to storm and impact on GDP, you will see that 8 out of the 10 ten countries in terms of % of population are from the Pacific. Similarly, 7 Pacific Island countries feature in the top 10 countries in terms of percentage of GDP loss.

Adaptation actions Strengthening of meteorological services Capacity building programmes – development of Vulnerability & Adaptation assessments, Cost Benefit Analysis and Eco-system Based Adaptation tools Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change (PACC) project Joint National Action Plans PACC – 14 countries, 3 key sectors: water, coastal and food security. Wide range of options, soft options – water policies, supply and demand side, increased storage, rain water harvesting. Salt tolerant varieties of crops, Joint National Action Plans

Concluding remarks The Pacific has a substantial economic dependency on climate sensitive sectors such as ecosystem services and tourism, with limited opportunities for economic diversification. For many of the observed impacts of climate change, for example limited fresh-water availability, sea-level rise, extreme events, ocean acidification and coral reef degradation – adaptation potential is limited. Implementation of adaptation options, if available, comes at very high costs in relation to countries national budgets.