Regional security and conflicts in the Baltic region Dr David Galbreath University of Bath ReSET Winter School, Ukraine

Introduction About me and my work on the region Overview of the Baltic States Understanding regional security Factors in Baltic security Ethnic politics in the Baltic States Domestic features International factors Conclusion

About me Work on Baltic-Russian, Baltic-EU, EU-Russian relations, role of IOs in Baltic States

Overview of the Baltic States What do you know about the Baltic States? What do you think about the Baltic States? Baltic history and historiography Independence End of Cold War Triple transition: democratization, marketization de-Sovietization

Social Constructivism Key elements: Securitisation as a speech-act (language theory) Force of word “security” Security and threats: neither subjective nor objective but rather intersubjective Widens the security agenda Opposite to the rationalist, objectivist theories Focus on ideas, identities, perceptions, beliefs Securitisation: moderate constructivist approach Regional Security complexes See next page

Understanding Regional Security Regional Security Complex Theory Buzan People, States and Fear 1991 Buzan and Wæver Regions and Powers 2003 Regions are largely contained units Conflicts are usually regional States behave based on Empirical and verifiable Perception and image 2003

European security complex

Social Constructivism In post-Cold War Europe: Salience of regional security Region as unit of analysis Regional Security Degree of autonomy from systemic level Degree of interdependence Regionally based clusters of security

Social constructivism and Security Sector Military Political Economic Societal Environ-mental Object State’s sovereignty/ territorial integrity Government’s recognition/ legitimacy economy? Nation’s identity/ culture Local and planetary biosphere Threat Military attack Coup d’etat/ secessionism Closing access to external resources?/ Embargoes?/ protectionism? /monopoly? Migration/ assimilation /prohibition to practice one’s religion, etc. Pollution/ depletion of nat. resources

Social Constructivism Summary of Social Constructivism Context of its development Questions the definition of security Adds new dimension to theoretical debate Allows for widening of agenda Highlights importance of regions

Ethnic politics in the Baltic States Minority Migrant Manipulator?

Contextual Introduction Russians, Russian-speakers and non-citizens in the Baltic States Historical minorities in the Baltic States Soviet (im)migration Post-Soviet demographics The ‘Russian’ question

Russians, Russian-speakers and non-citizens in the Baltic States These are often overlapping groups of people but are not the same in real terms Russians: ethnically Russian Russian-speakers: Many different groups that speak Russian as their mother tongue or at least in everyday social situations. Non-citizens: Those who are not automatically eligible for citizenship based on when they came to the Baltic States

Historical minorities in the Baltic States Historically, the Baltic States have had minorities, which generally have come in two forms ‘Landlords’: like Germans, Danes, Swedes, Poles and later Russians. ‘Co-ethnics’: like Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Livu, Setu, Poles, Russians, and Belarussians

Soviet (im)migration Russians in the Baltic States 1935 1989 Estonia 4% 33% Latvia 11% 45% Lithuania 2% 9%

Post-Soviet Demographics Why such large Russian migration? Industry Collective Farming Social Control Replacements for depopulated population Second World War Soviet ‘classicide’ Deportations East Immigration West

The ‘Russian’ question after 1991 What is to be done with these Soviet* Russians among us? Two approaches to incorporating Soviet* Russians into the new states Inclusion: Lithuania made citizenship automatic for all those who had been permanent residents for 10 years. Exclusion: Estonia and Latvia required language fluency and a civic commitment for citizenship

Estonia and Latvia in focus Citizenship Estonia: open process, residents could vote (local) Latvia: closed process, no voting Changes: Both altered their citizenship law for children in 1998 (Latvia opened their process) Language: Russian is not an official language Education Estonia: Still waiting Latvia: 60/40 Latvian education for Russians (2004)

Minorities, Migrants and Manipulators What does all of this mean for the way we see Russian-speakers? Minorities, Migrants and Manipulators Why does it matter? Russian foreign policy Western involvement (EU, Council of Europe, OSCE) Reflect on the way we all relate to ‘our’ minorities

The Minority Discourse Defining the ‘national minority’ (Jackson-Preece) ‘A group numerically inferior to the rest of the population of a state, in a non-dominant position, well-defined and historically established on the territory of the state, whose members – being nationals of the state – posses ethnic, religious, linguistic or cultural characteristics differing from those of the rest of the population and show, if only implicitly, a sense of solidarity, directed towards preserving their culture, traditions, religion, or language. ‘

The Minority Discourse What is the responsibility of a majority within a democratic state regarding a minority? Inclusion Paths to policy-making Interests representation Equal opportunities Cultural protection, group rights Consociationalism? Veto?

The Migrant Discourse Defining a migrant (UNESCO): ‘Any person who lives temporarily or permanently in a country where he or she was not born, and has acquired some significant social ties to this country.’ What does this mean for those Russian-speakers born in the Baltic States but during the Soviet period (some of which could be 60+ years old)?

The Migrant Discourse What is the responsibility of the majority in a democratic state regarding a migrant community? Level of basic care Social integration Paths to naturalization Few or no group rights

The Manipulator Discourse Post-imperial minorities as ‘manipulators’ What makes them ‘manipulators’? Contested loyalties Link to the former colonising state An imperial culture Politically contentious Group entrance but no group exit

The Manipulator Discourse What is the responsibility of the majority in a democratic state regarding a post-imperial minority community? Level of basic care Paths to loyalty

Where do the Baltic States sit? Minority, Migrant or Manipulator? It depends. Generally, the Baltic governments have situated Russian-speakers between ‘migrant’ and ‘manipulator’ Level of basic care Social integration as a loyalty test Few group rights (e.g. Education)

The Practical Effects of Competing Discourses Minorities: European organizations see them as minorities EU (e.g. race equality directive) Council of Europe (e.g. FCNM) OSCE (e.g. HCNM) Russia sees them as minorities Russian calls for ‘fair’ treatment Russian-speakers see themselves as minorities Calls for cultural protection

The Practical Effects of Competing Discourses Migrants: Often Baltic officials publically describe them as migrants. The social integration programmes are predicated on such an ingroup-outgroup understanding. Erosion of basic cultural rights (e.g. Education)

The Practical Effects of Competing Discourses Manipulators Practical policy implications Latvian 1994 citizenship law Social integration by generational replacement The majority perceptions of ‘manipulator’ disaffect Russian-speakers, making any ‘minority’ or ‘migrant’ led approach more difficult.